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This week, several major ABS manufacturers (CNPC, Zhenjiang Chimei, Tianjin Dagu, Ningbo Taihua) have lowered their quotations; On Friday, Sinopec East China also cut its pricing by 300-600 yuan / ton.
In terms of manufacturers, orders from downstream home appliance terminals and markets decreased compared with the previous period; On the trader side, spot transactions also fell
sharply.
The two-week decline in the ABS market also basically indicates that the "pullback" has arrived
.
If you look at the cost of ABS alone, the support from upstream raw materials is generally good: affected by futures delivery in late September and stocking before the National Day, the domestic styrene market rose steadily; The supply price of butadiene domestic manufacturers was lowered, and the price fell from a high level; Acrylonitrile is still in tight supply and prices are firm
.
From the supply and demand side, due to the high apparent profit of ABS, the overall load of the current industry is high
.
As the most important downstream segment of ABS, the white goods industry, especially the air conditioning market since October last year, has brought almost one-third of the annual orders to ABS factories
.
From January to May 2017, the retail volume and retail sales of China's air conditioning market reached 23.
99 million units and 84 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 33.
2% and 38.
8%, especially in the past three months, the domestic air conditioning market showed explosive growth
.
In June 2017, household air conditioners were produced 13.
912 million units, up 44.
8% y/y, and sales were 14,134,700 units, up 41.
4%
y/y.
Among them, 9,554,400 units were shipped in China, a year-on-year increase of 66.
8%.
Exports were 4,580,300 units, up 7.
3%
y/y.
However, the "high growth" of the air conditioning market has been maintained for a whole year, and it may be difficult to sustain
it in the fourth quarter.
On the one hand, with the end of the air conditioning sales season, the industry's inventory has begun to increase again, and the enthusiasm for the procurement of raw material ABS will be greatly reduced; On the other hand, the state's regulation of real estate has led to a downturn in the real estate market around the world, and the real demand for air conditioning is still from real estate, if the real estate market situation is not good, then the air conditioning industry is bound to be affected
.
In addition, since last week, the ABS dollar market has continued to decline: on the one hand, the high transaction has been blocked, the RMB market offer is lower, on the other hand, the actual negotiation in November is scarce due to weak buying intentions and various uncertainties in the market
.
The impact of the "double festival" on the ABS market should not be large at present, and the low-price shipments in the spot circulation field have increased, and the ABS market may face the possibility
of accelerating decline in October.