Weather determines the price trend of corn in the later period

Introduction: since the market price of corn was started in the second half of 2000, after nearly a year's operation, it reached the highest point at the beginning of April this year, and then it went out of the down and consolidation market After May Day, the market situation has undergone some subtle changes Next, the author will make a brief analysis on the recent price trend and future development trend of the domestic corn market based on the understanding and mastering of some situations 1 Analysis of the current corn price trend domestic corn prices began to fall in mid April, after about a month of correction, they rose again after the May Day holiday This time, the price of corn has risen, and the production area is more fierce than the sales area At present, the price of Jilin corn car board has risen from 1040 yuan / ton before May 1st to 1090 yuan / ton The highest transaction price of car board has reached 1130 yuan / ton, up 50-90 yuan / ton, up 4.8% - 8.7% In the short term, the price of corn has returned to the high price area before April The price of corn in the northeast of Guangdong port is maintained at about 1300 yuan / ton, while that in Fujian is 1390 yuan / ton, with an increase of 30-40 yuan per ton According to the analysis, the reasons for the rapid recovery of corn prices are as follows: first, the peak of grain sales has passed and the supply of grain is becoming increasingly tight Second, the purchase price of corn rose, while the sales price rose simultaneously During the "May 1st" period, the author learned in the countryside that the corn purchase price in Jilin Province was slightly lower in the mainland where the traffic was relatively blocked, from 0.48 yuan / 500g in the early stage to 0.50 yuan / 500g at present; the area along the railway was slightly higher, from 0.50 yuan / 500g in the early stage to 0.52 yuan / 500g at present, and the purchase price per ton was generally increased by 40 yuan, and the corn purchase cost increased, which led to the increase of sales price The ship is tall Third, feed production has entered the peak season, and the desire of merchants to purchase has increased The peak season of corn in Northeast China is from May to December every year Recently, the large grain consumers in the sales area have increased their purchasing efforts It is reported that corn has been transported to the south of Dalian Port recently, and the flat price is about 1200 yuan per ton Fourth, the planting area of the major corn producing provinces has declined, and the spring drought is serious, which will have an impact on the corn production this year According to the survey of farmers' planting intention conducted by the agricultural research team of Jilin Province, Jilin Province, the largest corn producing province, has reduced the corn planting area by another 2.8% this year on the basis of large-scale reduction last year At present, the drought situation in the whole province is serious The drought area of the drought field has reached 48.92 million mu The cities and counties affected by the drought are all over the central and western grain producing areas Judging from the current situation, the drought is still likely to be further intensified Fifthly, the export growth of corn is fast, driving the market price to rise Although the corn production was reduced in 2000, the corn stock in the production area was still high In order to alleviate the inventory pressure in the production area and reduce the financial burden, the state calmly responded to the impact of imported corn on the domestic market after China's accession to the WTO, and promoted the balance of domestic corn supply and demand In 2001, it will continue to increase the export of corn It is reported that recently, the state has made adjustments to the corn export policy and appropriately increased the corn export subsidies, which will have a positive impact on the corn export in the second half of the year, and will play a strong supporting role in strengthening the domestic corn market price In addition, since April, the country has increased the freight of grain railway, and the increase of transportation cost is also a factor leading to the price rise 2 Analysis on the factors restricting the price rise of corn in the future although the price rise of corn is gratifying at present, there are still many factors restricting the price rise of corn in the long run According to the international and domestic market conditions, there are mainly the following points: 1 Influenced by comparative benefits, the growth of corn planting area is relatively large It is predicted that the planting area of corn in China will increase by 7% this year compared with last year If the weather conditions are favorable in the later period, the yield of corn is likely to increase If the average per unit yield reaches the average level of 1995-1999 for five years, the total yield of corn is expected to reach about 125 million tons 2 The corn stock is abundant, which can still meet the supply Although last year's corn production was cut, and more than 10 million tons were exported in that year, the corn inventory is still abundant, especially in the northeast main production area, due to the accumulated increase of corn production in the previous years 3 In the near future, the four ministries and commissions of the state jointly issued a notice calling for the sale of grain at a favorable price According to the circular, all localities are required to take practical measures to encourage grain sales and avoid the phenomenon of "reluctant to sell" This policy will greatly mobilize the enthusiasm of the purchasing and selling enterprises to sell the corn in stock, which will bring greater pressure on the price rise of corn 4 In the second half of the year, it is estimated that some aged corn will flow to the market, and the impact of its lower price on the market is inevitable 5 Affected by foot-and-mouth disease, the global animal husbandry is seriously damaged, and the consumption of corn as feed will be affected From the domestic situation, the feed consumption and industrial consumption level of corn in China will not increase significantly this year 6 The price of corn in the international market continues to fall, which has an increasingly obvious impact on the domestic market price 3 Prediction of the price trend of corn market in the later period Based on the analysis of the above factors, the rising trend of domestic corn price will be maintained in the future Under the situation that the market environment is temporarily beneficial to many parties, the corn price will challenge the high in the earlier period, which does not exclude the possibility of creating a new high, but the pressure is greater at the high in the earlier period of 1150 yuan / ton If the climate is good and the output reaches or approaches 130 million tons, it is reasonable that corn prices will fall in the fourth quarter However, the weather seems not so optimistic At present, the drought is relatively serious If the corn production is reduced again on the basis of last year, the trend of corn price firmness will not change If the reduction is close to or greater than 2000, the domestic corn supply-demand relationship will change, and the corn seller's market may be formed In the second half of the year, the corn price can accelerate to rise Yes.