What a hurry! The United States sold off oil reserves sharply, but the market expected prices to still rise

On October 19, the United States announced that it would release 15 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market, saying that "additional oil can be offered for sale if needed.
"
However, this storage dumping plan did not weigh on oil prices
.
On the same day, international crude oil futures continued to expand, with Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures both rising by about 3%.

The U.
S.
stockpiling plan may be related to
the recent agreement of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) to cut production sharply.
OPEC+ recently announced a 2 million b/d cut from November to stabilize oil prices, the largest
since 2020.
The decision to cut production was made because the group believes oil demand is declining
.

On October 12, OPEC lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2022 in its monthly report, the fourth time since April
.
OPEC also lowered its oil growth forecast for next year due to factors
such as high inflation and a slowing economy.

"The global economy has entered a period of increased uncertainty and challenges, with persistently high inflation, tightening monetary policy by major central banks, high levels of sovereign debt in many regions, and persistent
supply chain problems," OPEC said in the report.
”

According to energy expert Javier Blas, OPEC+'s production cut has two major consequences: rising oil prices have pushed global inflation to remain high, which means more aggressive interest rate hikes and a greater possibility of entering a recession for the United States; In addition, this also means that OPEC+ is not interested in becoming an ally of Europe and the United States, which need to develop more of their own energy
.

The United States is one of the important oil importers and exporters, and OPEC's decision to cut oil production reportedly angered the United States, which still chose to dump reserves from the current US oil reserves
, although they have hit the lowest level of the week.

U.
S.
commercial crude inventories fell 1.
725 million barrels to 437 million barrels in the week ended Oct.
14, up 1.
38 million barrels expected and 9.
879 million barrels in the previous week, and U.
S.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories fell 3.
564 million barrels to 405.
1 million barrels, the lowest
since the week of June 1, 1984, according to the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Why did the United States react so much? The US CPI has remained high this year, and the volatility of crude oil prices is a very important factor
.

In fact, if you look at the US CPI data since the epidemic, you will find that as early as May 2020, the year-on-year (non-seasonal) data of the US CPI that month has continued to rise
.

Crude oil prices are currently influencing factors, how are oil prices likely to change in the future?

According to Trading Economics global macro models and analyst expectations, crude oil is expected to trade at $89.
05 per barrel
by the end of the quarter.
Looking ahead, it is expected to trade at $100.
40/b
over 12 months.
In other words, the agency believes that oil prices may continue to rise in the future, with crude oil currently trading near
$90.

The firmness of crude oil prices is also attracting "stock god" Buffett to continue to increase positions
.

According to a regulatory document released by the SEC on September 28, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway purchased 5.
99 million shares of Occidental Petroleum (OXY.
US) company, which cost about $352 million
.
Today, Buffett's stake in Occidental oil has grown to 20.
9%.

Domestically, the upward trend in crude oil prices this year has also boosted the profits of domestic oil-related companies
.
For example, CNOOC (600938.
SH) recently released a forecast announcement for the first three quarters of 2022, predicting that the net profit attributable to the parent in the first three quarters of this year will be between 107.
8 billion yuan and 109.
8 billion yuan, an increase of 55 billion yuan to 57 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, an increase of about 104%-108% year-on-year, which has far exceeded its net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 of 70.
32 billion yuan
.

CNOOC said that such a good performance in the first three quarters of this year was mainly due to the rise in oil prices during the period, its oil and gas production hit a record high in the same period, and its cost competitive advantage was further consolidated
.