What are the sales prospects of exclusive medical insurance products that exceed 1 billion yuan?

Medical Network, April 12, the National Medical Security Administration, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced the "National Basic Medical Insurance, Work Injury Insurance and Maternity Insurance Drug Catalog (2020)" has been officially implemented
.
A total of 162 drugs were negotiated this time, and 119 were successfully negotiated, including 96 exclusive drugs.
The negotiation success rate was as high as 73.
46%
.
The prices of successfully negotiated medicines dropped by an average of 50.
64%
.
This adjustment is the first time to set up price reduction negotiations for drugs in the catalog
.
After 14 exclusive drug negotiations with annual sales of more than 1 billion yuan, the average drop was 43.
46%
.
These 14 exclusive medicines include 8 western medicines and 6 Chinese patent medicines.
Now we analyze the sales amount, quantity and unit price trend of 8 exclusive western medicines in recent years
.
Butylphthalide sodium chloride injection: Theprice has remained flat in recent years, and the price has been reduced by 51.
3% after negotiation.
  　　Data shows that the sales amount of butylphthalide sodium chloride injection in sample hospitals in 2019 is 955.
7 million yuan (the magnification of neurological drugs is 2.
68 , It is magnified to a national public hospitals purchase amount of 9.
557×2.
68, approximately 2.
5613 billion yuan), and 773.
6 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2020.
It is expected that the annual sales in 2020 will exceed 2019
.
(Source: PDB database, the same below) The sales volume of butylphthalide sodium chloride injection is increasing year by year, while the unit price is basically the same.
When the medical insurance catalogue of the 2019 edition was adjusted, the price was reduced by more than 1 yuan, and the price was about 286 yuan
.
After this negotiation, the publicly negotiated price was only 139 yuan, a decrease of 51.
3%
.
It can be predicted that in 2021, the sales volume of the drug will rise sharply, but the sales amount will decrease
.
  　　Butylphthalide soft capsules:   　　The sales volume fluctuated up and down, and the unit price dropped slightly; after the negotiation, it dropped by 55%.
The   　　data showed that the sales of butylphthalide soft capsules in sample hospitals in 2019 were 633 million yuan (the magnification of neurologic drugs was 2.
68, and it was expanded to public hospitals nationwide.
The amount of medicine is 6.
330×2.
68, which is about 1.
696.
4 billion yuan), and the sales amount in the first three quarters of 2020 is 417.
4 million yuan.
It is expected that the sales amount in 2020 will be lower than that in 2019
.
The sales volume of butylphthalide soft capsules fluctuates up and down, and the unit price drops slightly every year
.
When the 2019 version of the medical insurance catalog was adjusted, the price was only reduced by a few cents, and the price was around 7.
7 yuan
.
After this negotiation, the publicly negotiated price was only 3.
36 yuan, a decrease of 55.
6%
.
It can be predicted that the sales amount of the drug will drop significantly in 2021
.
  　　Agkistrodon acutus hemagglutinin for injection:   　　sales and unit prices are declining.
The   　　data show that in 2019, the sales of Agkistrodon acutus hemagglutinin for injection in sample hospitals was 487.
3 million yuan (the magnification of blood and hematopoietic system drugs is 3.
31, it is enlarged to the national public hospital purchase amount of 4.
873×3.
31, about 1.
613 billion yuan), the sales amount in the first three quarters of 2020 is 250.
7 million yuan
.
It is expected that the full-year sales in 2020 will be significantly lower than in 2019
.
The overall trend in the sales volume of Agkistrodon acutus hemagglutinin for injection is declining, and the unit price also drops slightly every year
.
When the 2019 version of the medical insurance catalog was adjusted, the price was only reduced by more than 1 yuan, and the price was around 93 yuan; but after this negotiation, the price has dropped significantly
.
It can be predicted that the sales volume of the drug will barely be able to maintain in the future, and the sales amount will drop significantly
.
  　　Alteplase for injection: the   　　volume and price have risen in the past few years, and the price has dropped sharply after the 2020 negotiation   　　The data shows that in 2019, the sales of alteplase for injection in sample hospitals were 281.
4 million yuan (the magnification of blood and hematopoietic system drugs was 3.
31, and the amount of drugs purchased by public hospitals nationwide was 2.
814×3.
31, which was about 931.
4 million.
Yuan), the sales amount in the first three quarters of 2020 is 208.
3 million yuan, and the sales for the whole year of 2020 and 2019 are expected to be the same
.
The sales volume of alteplase for injection has generally increased, and the unit price has also risen slightly
.
When the 2019 version of the medical insurance catalog was adjusted, the price increased: the average price of the 20mg specification increased by more than 180 yuan, to 2,187.
6 yuan; the 50mg specification increased by more than 160 yuan, to about 5,200 yuan
.
After the medical insurance negotiations, the price has dropped significantly.
It can be predicted that the sales of the drug will increase significantly in 2021, but the sales amount will decrease
.
  　　Tanshinone ⅡA Sodium Sulfonate Injection: The   　　sales volume first increased and then fell, and the unit price remained flat.
  　　Data shows that the sales of Tanshinone ⅡA Sodium Sulfonate Injection in sample hospitals in 2019 was 241.
7 million yuan (the magnification of cardiovascular system drugs is 3.
29 , It is enlarged to a national public hospital purchase amount of 2.
417×3.
29, which is about 795.
2 million yuan).
The sales amount in the first three quarters of 2020 is 999.
8 million yuan.
It is expected that the annual sales in 2020 will be significantly lower than in 2019
.
The sales volume of Tanshinone ⅡA Sodium Sulfonate Injection increased first and then decreased, and the unit price was generally flat
.
When the 2019 version of the medical insurance catalog was adjusted, the price actually rose, up a few cents, to about 15.
7 yuan
.
After this negotiation, the publicly negotiated price was only 11.
9 yuan, a drop of more than 23.
7%
.
It can be predicted that the sales amount and quantity of the drug will decrease in 2021
.
  　　Dolastron mesylate injection:   　　The unit price of the two specifications rose and fell; after the negotiation, it was reduced by 90%.
The   　　data showed that the sales of dolasetron mesylate in the sample hospitals in 2019 was 777.
1 million yuan (the magnification of digestive system drugs is 3.
13, then zoom in) The purchase amount of drugs to public hospitals across the country is 7.
771×3.
13, which is about 2.
432.
3 billion yuan), and the sales amount in the first three quarters of 2020 is 525.
5 million yuan.
It is expected that the annual sales in 2020 will be slightly lower than that in 2019
.
The sales volume of dolasetron mesylate injection increased overall, but the unit prices of the two specifications showed different trends.
The price of the 1ml: 12.
5mg specification decreased year by year, while the price of the 5ml: 0.
1g specification increased year by year
.
After this negotiation, the price paid for the 1ml: 12.
5mg specification dropped from 144.
5 yuan to 13.
6 yuan, a decrease of 90.
6%, and the price paid for the 5ml: 0.
1g specification dropped from the original 709.
91 yuan to 66.
82 yuan, a decrease of 90.
6%.

.
It can be predicted that the number of sales of the drug will increase significantly in 2021, but the sales amount will drop significantly
.
  　　Goserelin Acetate Sustained-Release Implants: After the   　　negotiation, the price drops sharply.
It is expected that the sales volume will increase and the sales amount will decrease.
  　　Data show that the sales of Goserelin Acetate sustained-release implants in sample hospitals in 2019 was 910.
4 million yuan (anti -tumor drug magnification of 1.
96, then zoom in to the national public hospitals purchase cost is 9.
104 × 1.
96, about 1.
7844 billion yuan), three quarters of 2020 sales of 738.
6 million yuan, is expected in 2020 will be the year Higher than sales in 2019
.
The sales volume of Goserelin Acetate sustained-release implants is increasing year by year, while the unit price is decreasing year by year
.
When the 2019 version of the medical insurance catalog was adjusted, the price dropped slightly.
The minimum payment price for the 3.
6mg specification was 1,615.
28 yuan, and the minimum payment for the 10.
8mg specification was 3,942.
54 yuan. .
After this negotiation, the price has dropped significantly.
It is predicted that the sales volume of the drug will increase significantly in 2021, but the sales amount will decrease
.
  　　Recombinant human thrombopoietin injection:   　　sales increased significantly, and the sales amount decreased slightly.
  　　Data shows that the sales amount of recombinant human thrombopoietin injection in sample hospitals in 2019 was 1.
257 billion yuan (the magnification of blood and hematopoietic system drugs was 3.
31, It is enlarged to a national public hospital purchase amount of 12.
570×3.
31 (approximately 4.
160.
7 billion yuan), and the sales amount in the first three quarters of 2020 is 961.
5 million yuan.
It is expected that the annual sales amount in 2020 will be slightly higher than that in 2019
.
The sales volume of recombinant human thrombopoietin injection has increased year by year, while the unit price has decreased slightly
.
When the 2019 version of the medical insurance catalog was adjusted, the price dropped slightly.
The minimum payment for 1ml: 7500IU specifications was 617.
75 yuan, and the minimum payment for 1ml: 15000IU specifications was 1008 yuan
.
After this negotiation, the prices of both specifications have dropped significantly
.
It is predicted that the sales volume of the drug will increase significantly in 2021, but the sales amount will decrease
.
  　　Conclusion   　　Judging from the release results of the medical insurance catalog in recent years, the medical insurance catalog will move towards dynamic adjustment
.
This adjustment is the first time to set up price negotiations for drugs in the catalog, which is also a price negotiation for medical insurance drugs that use a large amount of a single product and take up a lot of medical insurance funds
.
The National Medical Insurance Administration stated: “Through the introduction of a negotiation mechanism, some of the newly listed drugs have been more cost-effective in recent years.
Compared with the'old varieties' in the original catalog, prices have been'upside down'
.
In order to maintain the use of medical insurance funds and patients The fairness of rights, we use the market mechanism to negotiate the old varieties and guide their payment standards to return to reasonable
.
Negotiations on eligible "old varieties" will be the norm in the future
.
For these manufacturers, price reduction and recall of the medical insurance catalog are both difficult choices.
Compared with the medical insurance catalog, the sales volume will drop sharply or even "return".
"Zero", and the price reduction staying in the medical insurance catalogue is "two evils, whichever is less
.
" With the sharp decline in drug prices and actual profits, it is inevitable for companies to make strategic changes in the future
.