What is the value of new drugs competing for the first market in the world?

Source: as we all know, Xinkangjie / shaojianguo 2015-09-21, it's worth winning the first listing of new drugs in the world How much profit can we get? Now, some new academic research projects are revealing this answer to us No, researchers at the Fuku School of business at Duke University have not only quantified the value of the first global listing of new drugs, but also proposed a tool that can predict the success of new drugs The tool is mainly based on the time when new drugs are on the market and the advertising expenses after they are on the market "We are working on a new formula," Professor David Ridley said in an article for the world economic forum to be published at Duke University "As long as you add in this formula the number of days delayed compared with the global first launch date of new drugs, advertising investment and ranking of product launches, you can get the market share of your products in the future." In an article published by nature reviews drug discovery, David Ridley and his team focused on 50 of the world's first drugs to be marketed in different markets, especially those that are not yet major clinical breakthroughs Their idea is to analyze competitors who do not rely on drug quality to gain market share, but are affected by other factors Using data on promotion fees and market share from private providers, researchers at Duke University found that the second drug, if two years behind the first drug, would only gain 34% market share even at the peak of sales This is also the case when the promotion cost of the second drug on the market is exactly the same as that of the first drug on the market "We found that even in the set time, the advertising expenses of the second drug company and the first drug company are the same, and indeed the same, and the market share of the second drug company is much lower than that of the first drug company," said Ridley“ Even if the costs are the same, the second drug on the market can only occupy a third of the market share at the peak of sales " Ridley is familiar with the channels for new drugs to be launched He helped create a priority review lottery to speed up FDA approval of new drugs The system shortens the time for new drug reviews from 10 months to 6 months, with a time difference of 4 months leading to a market share of 2%, according to Ridley Now many pharmaceutical companies have purchased priority review lottery tickets from other companies to help their new drugs pass the FDA review, the most prominent of which are Sanofi and regenerator The two companies did not hesitate to spend $67 million to win a priority ticket for their PCSK9 inhibitor, the pro protein converting enzyme, alant (alirocumab) The move is mainly to surpass the PCSK9 inhibitor repatha (evolocumab) of Amgen in the head-to-head competition In the end, however, praluen was only a month ahead of repatha in the morning Now, it remains to be seen whether praluen, which has gained its first listing advantage, will benefit Of course The advantages of the world's first listing are not always held Tecfidera was approved by FDA on March 28, 2013, which is the third listed multiple sclerosis treatment drug It lags behind that of fingolimod, gilenya and Sanofi, which were approved by FDA on September 21, 2010 Two years later, tecfidera became the market leader of oral multiple sclerosis drugs Similarly, the oral anticoagulant XA factor inhibitor of Johnson & Bayer (rivaroxaban, xarlto) was approved by FDA on November 2, 2012, two years later than that of tibaiquan (dabigatun, pradaxa) of bringlingham, but it has also quickly become the leader in this field McKinsey's research found that for large pharmaceutical companies, the world's first listing is the biggest advantage.