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Recently, pharmaceutical stocks have been riding a roller coaster
.
But what remains unchanged is that the position of public funds in biomedicine has continued to break through the lower limit
this year.
Among them, the innovative drug sector is the hardest hit area
.
Among the pharmaceutical stocks, one sector always seems to be spared
.
At a time when the stock price of innovative drugs was turned upside down by corporate news and the policy environment, the traditional Chinese medicine sector seemed to be "unique on this side of the landscape"
.
During the sharp decline in the previous days, Chinese medicine stocks remained firm; At the opening of today, Chinese medicine stocks still led the rise
.
Hansen, Huasen, Fangsheng, Longjin and other Chinese medicine stocks have soared
.
In the past ten days, the main force of the Chinese medicine sector has a net inflow of 234 million yuan, far outperforming other pharmaceutical stocks
.
When it falls, it does not fall sharply, and when it rises, it is the happiest - this is probably the best expression to
describe Chinese medicine stocks.
In the past bull market of innovative drugs, Chinese medicine stocks were the bottom line; Now, when capital is struggling in the field of innovative drugs, Chinese medicine stocks seem to have become the next heavy position
.
Why Chinese medicine?
The most important reason behind the several soaring secondary markets in a year is that policy support for Chinese medicines has been transmitted to the primary market: in addition to traditional investors (government funds, leading enterprises in Chinese medicine), social capital has also begun to intervene in the research and development of
new Chinese medicines.
new Chinese medicines.
It's just that Chinese medicine is also facing the advent
of the era of collective procurement like generic drugs and me-too drugs.
In the past, Chinese medicine faucets could often feed an enterprise with several large varieties, and this kind of day of lying on large varieties to make money is no longer there, and the innovation pressure of Chinese medicine enterprises is no less than that of chemical medicine and biological medicine companies: only by constantly laying eggs can there be more than one egg in the basket - which also influences and even determines the choice of
capital to a certain extent.
In the future, it may no longer be the industry leaders who determine the market imagination space of Chinese medicine enterprises, but the overall policy orientation and the consequent attention
of the capital community.
It is still unknown
whether the development of traditional Chinese medicine innovation and the efforts of enterprises to break through the "one-trick fresh" profit model can carry the dual focus of policy and capital.
-01-
-01-The initial reshuffle period of social capital
The initial reshuffle period of social capital In the past few years, investment in the research and development of new Chinese medicines has mainly come from government funds and some large Chinese medicine enterprises
.
For example, the special biomedical science and technology projects in the annual "Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan" of the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission are not only provided for the application of new biological and chemical drug research and development, medical equipment and equipment developers, but also to researchers of new traditional Chinese medicines, each of which is usually hundreds of thousands of yuan
.
"Government support is always an important guiding direction
.
" A developer of new Chinese medicine said, "Although the government funding may not be particularly large for each project, it is oriented
.
”
Next, there may be more government funds for Chinese medicine
.
At present, there is a Chinese medicine fund led by the top stream of the "national team", with a total scale of 30 billion yuan: it was established
in August last year by China Development Bank Capital, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Development Bank, and two government funds in Guangdong.
In the past two years, the above-mentioned developers have found that social capital has also begun to be willing to invest in the research and development of traditional Chinese medicine: in the case of continued favorable policies, considering that the research and development cost of new Chinese medicine drugs is much lower than that of chemical drugs and biological drugs, usually only in millions, some investors have begun to be interested in "doing some trying"
.
An investor who has been following Chinese medicine stocks for a long time also noticed that the number of shareholders of some Chinese medicine companies has declined this year, and more and more institutions have entered this track
that has not been favored by professional investors in the pharmaceutical field for a long time.
that has not been favored by professional investors in the pharmaceutical field for a long time.
The social capital invested in traditional Chinese medicine has just entered the initial reshuffle period
.
"There are some institutions that have entered Pian Tsai, Tongrentang, Yunnan Baiyao, and Sanjiu
at the same time.
In the future, institutional investment is likely to pay more and more attention to this sector
.
The investor said
.
The impact of policy support has been transmitted to the primary market
.
-02-
-02-Policy-driven markets
Policy-driven markets For a long time, the stock price fluctuations of the Chinese medicine sector have been like scattered immortals
.
China's biomedical field has been overcoming difficulties for more than ten years, facing several big mountains: research and development, going to sea, collective procurement, and commercialization
.
Most of these barriers have not been a problem for Chinese medicine companies to consider for a long time: there is a top-secret formula process, a large plate with Chinese medication habits, and the right to raise prices independently, but there is no competitive environment
full of "post-wave crisis" and "wind anxiety" like biotech.
For a long time, the consumer goods attributes and speculative market on which traditional Chinese medicine relies have allowed it to gather a group of floating funds, and the market logic has always been outside
the main line of the ups and downs of China's innovative drug reform.
A number of medicines such as Pian Tsai and Yunnan Baiyao are firmly at the top of the capital mountain, and the focus of attention is basically on price adjustment, selling goods, and speculating in stocks
.
However, as far as the entire market is concerned, in this era of rapid development of chemical and biological drugs, and the needs of a variety of diseases are well met, traditional Chinese medicine occupies a relatively small space
.
Therefore, for a long time, the Chinese medicine stock was relatively silent
.
In the past two years, things have started to change
dramatically.
The impact
of the policy push is clearly visible from the several spikes in pharmaceutical stocks in the secondary market this year.
of the policy push is clearly visible from the several spikes in pharmaceutical stocks in the secondary market this year.
In the surge in Chinese medicine concept stocks at the beginning of this year, several stocks jumped by more than 50%.
The boost mainly comes from the supportive policies introduced during that period: TCM medical institutions can temporarily suspend DRG payment, and appropriately increase the coefficients and scores of TCM medical institutions and TCM diseases in areas that have been implemented; Traditional Chinese medicine hospitals and Chinese medicine retail pharmacies are included in the designated medical insurance sites; The addition of Chinese medicine pieces has remained unchanged for a long time (25%)
.
In addition, that big rise also had the factor of moderate price reduction for the
first centralized procurement of proprietary Chinese medicines.
At the end of 2021, the 19 provincial and regional alliances composed of Hubei, Hebei, Shanxi and other places opened bids for centralized procurement of proprietary Chinese medicines, and most of the drug prices decreased by 30%-50%, with an average reduction of only 42%.
The sudden rise in the Chinese medicine sector in early April is related to an official news: WHO released the "WHO Expert
Evaluation Meeting on Traditional Chinese Medicine for the Treatment of New Coronary Pneumonia".
The news said the meeting evaluated clinical application, research and evidence-based evaluation reports provided by a Chinese expert group and showed that patients taking the Chinese medicine had a shorter
recovery time for symptoms compared to patients who were not given the medicine.
At the end of June 2022, the Chinese medicine sector once again topped the industry for several days
.
Under the changes, it is still the wind and grass of policy
.
On June 29, the official website of the Drug Promotion Council said that a number of experts from the Drug Promotion Council joined the Expert Advisory Committee
on Strategic Decision-making on Traditional Chinese Medicine Management of the State Food and Drug Administration.
At the same time, the four departments jointly issued the document "Opinions on Strengthening the Work of Chinese Medicine Talents in the New Era", which mentioned that "by 2025, all community service centers and township health centers will set up Chinese medicine halls and allocate Chinese medicine doctors"
.
Obviously, the network construction of the future Chinese medicine industry at the policy level is penetrating
simultaneously at different levels.
-03-
-03-The era of national procurement of traditional Chinese medicine has arrived
The era of national procurement of traditional Chinese medicine has arrived Last month, the National Joint Procurement Office for Proprietary Chinese Medicines was established, divided into 16 procurement groups, specifically involving 42 oral drugs or injections
such as compound cantharia, compound thrombotong, coronary heart ning, and huaxia.
This means that the era of national procurement of traditional Chinese medicine has
come.
According to the experience of the first two batches of inter-provincial alliance procurement of proprietary Chinese medicines, a scoring system has been set up for the procurement of proprietary Chinese medicines: among them, the technical evaluation score is 40 points, and it contains 5 dimensions (recognition of medical institutions, enterprise supply capacity, innovation ability, credit evaluation, product quality and safety), and a total of 60 points for
price competition.
In the centralized procurement of chemical drugs, the price factor is obviously inferior to that of proprietary Chinese medicines
.
Taking the "Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Zhejiang-Anhui) Alliance Regional Drug Centralized Procurement Document" as an example, for varieties with more than or equal to 3 national collective procurement and bidding enterprises, the price score is 40 points, and the total comprehensive evaluation score is 200 points
.
The R&D cost of new chemical drugs is high, and the PE value is also rising; The price-to-earnings ratio of the Chinese medicine sector is much lower than the average
of the biomedical sector.
The lack of interest in capital and the price competition of centralized procurement make it necessary for Chinese medicine enterprises to save money in the research and development process; The hospital's TCM addition and DRGs exemption also give these enterprises certain market advantages and price space - policy, capital, enterprise development model, and the three have reached a subtle tacit understanding
here.
here.
However, the arrival of national procurement has also broken some comfort zones
of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises.
of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises.
The exclusive variety is the rice bowl of a Chinese medicine enterprise, and one medicine can feed an enterprise
.
Chemical drug companies are different, there are often 30 to 50 drugs under development "on the road" - which will lead to: in the future, even if Chinese medicine companies do not have to bear the difficulty and cost of research and development of new drug companies, their product structure must learn
from new drug companies.
For example, Jiaying Pharmaceutical, an exclusive variety of elderberry capsules, contributed 400 million yuan in revenue in 2021, accounting for about 70% of the total annual revenue of 575 million yuan - it is difficult to imagine how such an exclusive product will have a devastating impact
on companies that have relied heavily on it for a long time after entering the national procurement.
.
Therefore, the pressure of innovation in Chinese medicine companies is no less than that of innovative pharmaceutical companies: only by constantly laying eggs can there be more than one egg
in the basket.
-04-
-04-Where is the new space?
Where is the new space? Formulated granules have been a hot spot
in the Chinese medicine market for several years.
However, it is likely that it is not far from collective procurement
.
in the Chinese medicine market for several years.
However, it is likely that it is not far from collective procurement
.
Zhong Chongming, a medical insurance researcher, believes that in the next few years, Chinese medicine formula granules may usher in rapid development, because it will "modernize" the use of traditional Chinese medicine, providing a new imagination
for the service efficiency of the Chinese medicine department and efficient payment for medical storage.
He said that on August 31, 2022, the National Medical Insurance Administration issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Rules and Methods for the Unified Coding of Chinese Medicine Formula Granules for Medical Insurance, which marks that the Chinese medicine formula granule system has been linked to the medical insurance business information coding, which has direct and fundamental support
for the full promotion and use and timely landing of centralized procurement.
Zhong Chongming believes that the centralized procurement of Chinese medicine formula granules will be fully promoted in the later stage, for reasons including: "First, the information foundation is good, which has been covered by the medical insurance business information code; Second, the starting point is new and high, and it has advantages in standardization and convenient use; Third, it belongs to the innovation of system products, which may enjoy the market share of 'cage for bird' from the centralized procurement of proprietary Chinese medicine; fourth, the typical support field for revitalizing traditional Chinese medicine, which has bright prospects
in medical insurance payment and consumer medical care.
”
In the view of a new Chinese medicine developer, after years of development, formula granules have become a relatively mature market, and it is difficult to cut out new cakes for new entrants
.
The above-mentioned developers of traditional Chinese medicine believe that the next new development space in this field may be "new drugs for unmet clinical needs of existing drugs"
.
Among them, it is mainly in the field of traditional Chinese medicine, such as the treatment of bone injuries and skin diseases, as well as pediatrics, gynecology, and anti-tumor adjuvant medicine
.
"The anti-tumor effect of chemotherapy or biological products of modern drugs has far exceeded the inhibitory effect of traditional Chinese medicine on tumors
.
" He said, "But Chinese medicine can also be used as an adjuvant in the anti-tumor process, such as alleviating the side effects of chemotherapy and raising white blood cells
.
" ”
The above-mentioned developers mentioned that in the field of new Chinese medicines, whether it is the number of applications for clinical research or marketing, these two or three years have increased
significantly compared with previous years.
"And we feel that this momentum will continue in the coming years, and even the number of approvals will continue to increase
.
" He said
.
This wave of research and development of new Chinese medicine drugs began with the new registration management measures
issued two years ago.
issued two years ago.
In the second half of 2020, the State Food and Drug Administration successively issued the "Requirements for Registration Classification and Application Materials of Traditional Chinese Medicines" and "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicines", which proposed to reform the registration classification of traditional Chinese medicines, build a "three-combination" evaluation evidence system, and reform and improve the review and approval system of
traditional Chinese medicines.
"Three combinations" refers to the combination
of Chinese medicine theory, "human experience" and clinical trials.
Under the new review system, many preclinical studies
can be exempted if a drug has previous experience and has been "clinically approved".
Since then, the industry has paid more attention to
hospital preparations, classic famous formulas, etc.
In the past two years, many investors have asked the team of this developer to help screen the hospital preparations, hoping to intervene in the follow-up development
.
Some local governments have also given great support
to the research and development of new Chinese medicines.
to the research and development of new Chinese medicines.
For example, Hebei Province will provide special financial subsidies
for provincial strategic emerging industries that do not exceed 20% of the fixed asset investment of the project and not exceed 10 million yuan for newly obtained certificates of Class 4 and 5 new drugs of traditional Chinese medicine.
Bozhou, Anhui Province will support the research and development of compound preparations of ancient classic Chinese medicines and traditional Chinese medicines with the same name and formula according to 50% of the research and development expenses, and a maximum of 5 million yuan will be given to a single variety
.
However, in the current entire field of medicine, the proportion of traditional Chinese medicine must be much
smaller than that of chemical drugs and biological drugs.
This is true even from the perspective of megatrends
.
The Chinese medicine industry and the innovative medicine industry will each develop independently along the logic of "pharmaceutical power" and "pharmaceutical powerhouse" for a long time to come – but it is certain that Chinese medicine will no longer be able to move away from
the story of China's pharmaceutical transformation with strong consumer attributes as in the past.
the story of China's pharmaceutical revolution with its strong consumer properties, as it has in the past.
Although the relationship between the two is by no means antagonistic, China's approval resources - patients, clinical, doctors, medical insurance, capital - are relatively fixed
.
If the overall expectation of the industry allows all resources to be concentrated on one track, then the bubble caused and the sunk cost of making up for the stagnation of other tracks due to lack of attention are often needed more - at the moment when China's modern pharmaceutical industry system is beginning to take shape, the bubble that may appear in the field of traditional Chinese medicine in the future is precisely what we need to be wary of
.
What is more alarming is that under the large plate with a fixed total amount of funds, funds are too concentrated in one field, and the future of innovative drugs that urgently need funds for blood transfusion will go through a longer and difficult struggle period?
Under the large plate of fixed total funds, funds are too concentrated in one field, and the future of innovative drugs that urgently need funds for blood transfusion, will it go through a longer and difficult struggle period?
