Where will the fastest growth of biopharmaceutical industry come from in 2020? Who is the biggest winner, AZ or MSD?

With the R & D input-output ratio decreasing gradually, the expected time to realize the dividend in the field of oncology medicine has been extended, and new competitive faces have emerged 2020 will be a tough venture for the biopharmaceutical industry This article is edited and compiled from vantage 2020 preview by evaluate Recently, evaluation, a research consultancy, released its latest report, forecasting the biomedical industry in 2020 At the beginning of the report, it was proposed that 2020 would be a tough adventure for the biopharmaceutical industry In the United States, with the election approaching and the debate over drug prices exposed to the spotlight, this will remain a continuing topic in 2020 According to the data of evaluate Pharma, the report points out the biggest sales growth momentum of biopharmaceutical industry next year, and focuses on the companies that achieve this growth The progress of oncology in the past decade has made this field the main focus of biopharmaceutical field Whether in terms of new sales sources or capital orientation, anti-cancer drugs and companies developing these drugs have basically occupied the leading position According to the report, neither the short-term nor the long-term situation will change For example, the report expects sales of eight drugs to increase by $1 billion or more next year, four of which are cancer drugs It is undeniable that some of these drugs have made breakthroughs, but at the same time, the high price of drugs in the field of cancer is also one of the reasons for the growth According to the data of evaluate Pharma, the sales volume of the drug in the next year will be nearly 3.3 billion US dollars more than this year, which is a huge growth for a single drug, and also makes K drug become the second largest drug in the world in one year There are also products with very high sales volume that are not among the biggest growth sources next year, such as epicure The product has been at the top of the drug sales list for many years in a row, but now sales will begin to decline due to the impact of biological similar drugs After seven years of running in China, this product was finally included in the new national medical insurance catalogue at the end of the year, but at the same time, there are approved biological similar drugs in China Under the poor performance of the Chinese market, under the support of medical insurance and the attack of biological similar drugs in 2020, whether Sumeria will break out in China will be a big focus in 2020 There are still more than a decade old drugs will continue to grow next year Two of BMS's drugs, rimex (lenalidomide) and alotal (apixaban), will bring growth to the biopharmaceutical industry next year Reeve may also be a legend on the list Rimage was first approved by FDA for listing at the end of 2005 In recent years, its global sales have maintained a double-digit growth rate From 2015 to 2017, lenalidomide rose from 10th to 2nd in the global drug sales list, and from 4th to 1st in the global anti-tumor drug sales list For a drug that has been on the market for more than ten years, it can still guarantee a billion dollar increase in 2020, which is indeed a star product that has to be mentioned in this list But the same thing is that the current domestic sales of this product still do not match its international status, and it faces the competition of generic drugs Baiji Shenzhou, which is in charge of its domestic market, recently announced that the State Food and drug administration has accepted the listing application of the new indications of rfml After Baiji took over in Shenzhou in the first two years, it seems that rifume has achieved a good growth rate In addition, we can see that PD-1, antibody against interleukin, GLP-1 and other fields will have a great growth through these drugs which are believed to obtain rapid growth But at the same time, antiepileptic drugs and hepatitis C drugs will decline in 2020 There are some new faces in calculating the biggest new sales source in 2020 by the company Takeda, from Asia, has entered the ranks of the fastest growing companies due to the dividend from the merger and acquisition of shire, with sales increased by more than $1 billion In the same way, BMS has gained a significant boost from the acquisition of new base AstraZeneca stands out among the fastest growing companies, with a number of successful oncology products to help them grow rapidly The lung cancer targeting drugs Teresa and PARP inhibitor olapani have been proved to be very effective in targeting cancer drugs by clinical data and market data Although PD-L1 may lag behind keytruda and opdivo, the sales volume of the product is expected to reach nearly 2 billion dollars next year, which is recognized in the report as almost no commercial failure of drug I AstraZeneca has been one of the top performing large pharmaceutical stocks this year, with shares close to record highs and currently about 35% higher than Pfizer's In the list of the most valuable R & D projects, Lilly has performed surprisingly with a net present value of 12 billion US dollars Thanks to its GIP / GLP-1 double target receptor agonist tirzepatide, Lilly has a promising future This is also Lilly's attempt to introduce a new mechanism into the diabetes market Diabetes is a highly competitive area and has been under great price pressure This also means that compared with the existing methods, any new mechanism must provide substantial advantages to be recognized by the market, and obvious cardiovascular benefits may be the minimum Data from key surpass projects are expected to be released by the end of 2020, and Lilly plans to promote another GIP / GLP / glucagon triple agonist to phase II clinical trials next year Competitors Novo Nordisk are also developing new drugs for this mechanism, and phase I data from nn1706 is expected to be released soon From the existing data, multiple receptor agonists are more effective than GLP-1 agonists in reducing blood sugar and weight It also means Lilly has a lot of work to do Another noteworthy asset is a new, oral and selective Tyk2 inhibitor developed by BMS Its unique mechanism of action is different from other kinase inhibitors At present, the drug is in phase III clinical, used to treat psoriasis and a variety of autoimmune diseases Its net cash value is only next to Lilly's above products, reaching 6.7 billion US dollars In psoriasis, otezla is considered to be a safer but less effective option, and BMS believes that bms-986165 has a better business prospect At present, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson are also developing Tyk2 inhibitors, which is also a new mechanism that needs to be focused on in the field of autoimmune diseases in 2020 Interestingly, of the top 10 R & D projects, only three are cancer products The report points out that cancer projects now tend to target smaller areas, but this may also reflect the fact that the next wave of immunooncology assets will arrive much longer than expected However, PD-1 / L1 once again stands out in the clinical development plan of marketed drugs Among the 10 drugs with the largest estimated clinical expenditure in 2020, drug K, drug o, drug I and drug t rank No 1, No 2, No 4 and No 5 respectively, with an estimated expenditure of between $890 million and $1.69 billion Multinational pharmaceutical giants will continue to invest heavily in PD-1 / L1 to support the approval of new indications K medicine is different Although MSD has spent billions of dollars on this product and achieved great commercial success, the development expenditure of this product is still far higher than other products in 2020 Diabetes drugs, which need a lot of cardiovascular results research, are also inevitable in this list Novo Nordisk's somaluptide ranked third with $1 billion in clinical development spending Sanofi and Lilly will also spend more than $300 million on their unlisted GLP-1 receptor agonists and GIP / GLP-1 double target receptor agonists In addition to four PD-1 / L1 and two GLP-1, there are two JAK inhibitors from Aberdeen and lilly on the list In November, the high-profile rebound of NASDAQ biotechnology index means that the biotechnology market will have a perfect end in 2019 But how long it will last is the biggest concern for investors Most biopharmaceutical investors believe that it is at the highest point of uncertainty With the intensification of the US presidential campaign, the pricing of biopharmaceutical industry will be subject to strict review, and regardless of the outcome, the reform of the industry will be the focus These factors will aggravate the fluctuation of capital market, but the IPO window is not expected to end completely next year However, the acceptance of equity investors will not be the same as that in 2019, and venture investors will take a more cautious attitude, especially in the case of a long exit cycle Novo seeds, an early European venture capital fund, agreed: "we don't think the IPO market will disappear, but we may encounter some obstacles Time is everything." He said Carolyn ng, managing director of vertex ventures HC, which focuses on cancer risk investment, said it has become increasingly difficult to predict whether private companies can go public "Most of the companies that are turning to us now are very concerned about the possibility of entering the open market next year." And now many companies will be advised to collect more data before going public, or at least get some clinical proof of concept before considering public offering Past data also show that, on the one hand, compared with the early stage, the company has to take a larger discount than the original proposed valuation in 2019 to attract new shareholders The market is expected to become more difficult next year Private investors, on the other hand, have had to adjust their earnings as they push portfolio companies into the stock market this year Similarly, a higher yield next year would be a surprise In addition, the rising valuation of the private sector and the increasing number of financing rounds mean that more than ever before, venture investors need the public market to accept new problems Today, financing of more than $100 million is extraordinary "And if valuations are in the hundreds of millions of dollars, there are very few deals that will give venture capitalists a decent return Therefore, the open market will be the first choice " So if the market closes next year, many companies and their investors will want to know what to do next At present, although some companies do not have advanced clinical projects, they have made considerable valuations through rounds a and B financing, which is becoming more and more common As a result, few investors are willing to choose very early start-ups at current valuations Although, as long as the capital continues to flow into venture capital companies, it will not necessarily become a problem But investors say they will closely monitor the refinancing capacity of high-value, early stage companies next year In addition, venture capital companies will focus on the exit environment First of all, clean trading is still favored by venture investors, and research shows that such transactions have occurred faster since mid-2018 Second, the time to go public has been decreasing, but there could be a reversal in 2020 Larger R & D of new drugs will not lack buyers, so the interest of potential buyers is not expected to weaken Finally, for Biopharmaceutics, the capital of M & a transaction has broken the record, and it is generally expected that there will be an increasing trend of M & A at the beginning of the year Some insiders believe that some cash rich multinational pharmaceutical companies will be forced to take action in 2020, and some of them are under pressure to find new sources of growth Steven Slote, managing director of Manulife investment, has publicly said a hostile takeover could take place next year It's worth noting that potential buyers will be