Why is Methionine so strong in Europe?

Original title: Methionine: Why is it so strong?mKtOn March 27, 2015, the global market price of methionine continued to rise, and despite the weakness in the price of crude oil and petrochemical products, the contract price of methionine remained strong and the contract price for the third quarter was likely to be higher than the price in Q2The market price moves faster than expectedmKtpoultry demand: mKtFrom the global landscape, methionine consumer demand is strong and poultry farming is gradually recoveringU.Smarket profits are well because of low feed prices and strong domestic demand for chickenAnd there is still the possibility of further expansion of demand in the region in 2015Other regions such as Brazil, Europe and Japan are expected to expect demand in 2015The demand for methionine in aquatic products is growing rapidly, and aquatic methionine will be an important part of the growth in demand in 2015 and beyondHowever, the recent outbreak of bird flu in the United States threatens the U.Spoultry industry, and Hungary and Nigeria have reported that the global disease requires proper attention from businessesGlobal demand for methionine grew by around 5.5% last year, and at current estimates, 2015 is estimated to be around 6%, which means that the global methionine market needs an additional 60,000 tonnes of supplementary supply in 2015mKtmarket pattern: mKtdue to high technical barriers, methionine is currently only a few producers supply, in recent years some manufacturers due to lack of correct expectations of methionine demand and did not expand production, while others such as Degusay, Andesu seize the opportunity to improve their competitiveness at the same time, began to expandData from 2014 show that the two companies are still the dominant suppliers in the market, and that's what they got from effectively estimating demand a few years agomKt mKtmthia production: mKtaffected by methionine will undoubtedly cause the unplanned discontinuation of methionineIn the third quarter of 2014, the U.Smethionine production plant was discontinued by intermediate supply, and these issues have been resolved and these demands have been replenishedThe first quarter of 2015 was affected by minor technical problems, with a small decline in production at some methionine plants in Europe, which is not common during the preparation of methionine by complex chemical synthesisIn chemical production, regular shutdowns and overhauls are necessary, and French plants will be shut down in the second quarter of 2015 and will be strictly controlled in 2015As supply has remained tight since mid-2014, most companies' strategic inventories are bound to be below historical levelsThis situation will have some profit protection for the methionine companies that are bidding in late 2015mKtnew capacity for 2015: mKtSijg our sugar: mKtstarted in January 2015 at the methionine plant in Malaysia, with an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons, which is later than planned and is currently in the process of increasing production, making it difficult to reach full production in mid-2016It is estimated that the plant will be able to supply about 25,000 to 30,000 tons of meth in 2015Given the rapid growth of Higer Feed's business in Asia, there is a strong demand for methionine, so the significance of Hij's methionine for the export market supply in 2015 is limited mKt Wintron: mKt the methionine capacity of the Singapore plant will be released in large numbers in 2015 The plant has achieved its target production since the end of the fourth quarter of 2014 The plant has an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons, and Evonik says its technology could reach full production in its first year mKt Andisu: mKt the Blue Star Andesu plant in Nanjing, China, was put into operation in the first quarter of 2014, with a production capacity of 70,000 tons per year, and the plant produced 52,000 tons per year in 2014 The plant has now achieved its target production, with an expected production of 57,000 tons in 2015 and an increase of 75,000-80,000 tons per year in the second phase of operation at the end of 2016 mKt short-to-medium-term Andesu does not expand production at the European methionine plant, they will slightly increase the production of some intermediates, but will not be able to increase the production of methionine mKt Ziguang: mKt China Ziguang's plant in Ningxia is increasing production, the plant's methionine production capacity is currently 2500 tons/month, and is scheduled to increase to 3500 tons/month in the second quarter of 2015 mKt Sumitomo Chemical: mKt permanent closure of the methionine plant in China in 2014 and production in 2015 is not expected to change compared to 2014 mKt mKt Note: The data are based on 99% dL-methionine, methionine hydroxyl analogue converted into DL-methine according to 80% of the amount mKt production strategy: mKt existing methionine producers are differentiated by size, core business, expansion schedule, financial strength, product line length, market share and other factors In the context of the decline in raw material costs and energy costs, the creation of historically high levels of methionine is still strong demand, for this market, the various sizes of methionine production enterprises according to their market positioning different short-term business strategies are different Small producers maximize capacity because their extra supply does not weaken market prices Medium-sized producers follow the pricing strategy of leading manufacturers to optimize supply to avoid creating supply and demand imbalances Suffered Due to the impact of the expansion of production, Evonik occupies the dominant position in the current market, Evonik's production is likely to reach 435,000 tons, no other enterprise methionine production can be compared with Evonik Therefore, at present, Evonik adjusts its output according to market demand, and the factors affecting the market include exchange rate fluctuations, raw material costs, factory output, transportation costs, near market changes, etc Evonik is currently a company with significant pricing power, methionine in the context of historical highs, any change in its price is related to the win-earnings, and therefore very price sensitive mKt as above, this year Hij and Ziguang will have new capacity release, And the challenge for Evonik this year is how to gain market share in the supply and demand markets after the release of Capacity in Singapore Evonik's dominant market position allows them to respond to market demand sing-outs as new competitors such as Higer and Ziguang make progress New capacity in Asia in the early fourth quarter of 2015 could put pressure on the current tight supply and demand balance in Europe For the readjustment of the market supply and demand balance, Degusay can also adjust the production and sales schedule of the five plants, inventory adjustment to achieve the goal Evonik said it was able to recalibrate the utilization of its plants in a short period of time, which, given Evonik's market share, had a significant impact on the global supply and demand landscape, and the market price of methionine would change mKt Summary: mKt global methionine stocks were at low levels in 2015, and slightly larger customers in all regions reported tight supply from producers, but the current unplanned supply constraints were not due to apparent technical problems Production capacity in Malaysia and China is being released and will gradually put pressure on the market in the third and fourth quarters of 2015 Demand signs are that poultry demand in most regions remains strong in 2015, with demand for methionine likely to reach 600,000 tonnes, more than in 2014 Market price trends in the first half of 2015 were mainly influenced by manufacturers mKt Evonik expects 2015 to supply 435,000 tonnes and a market share of more than 37%, and now have five factories in the market-led area, a market position with pricing power that allows them to significantly influence the balance of supply and demand At current price levels, the price of methionine directly affects Evonik's profits, so it controls supply to avoid supply and demand imbalances, and if demand is not as expected, or if new competitors are able to quickly adjust the production and distribution of production and supply of factories and regain control of the fundamentals to the point in which they are in their favour mKt In Europe, the spot price of DL-methionine continues to climb, with the latest trading price reaching between 7-7.5 euros/kg This represents a significant increase in the contract price of 4.2-4.7 euros/kg in the second quarter of 2015 Some of the biggest customers in Europe are considering a planned third quarter of demand, with those (core big customers) saying the current contract price for q3 is between 4.6 and 4.9 euros/kg Continued exchange rate changes since the second quarter have continued to increase European exports to the United States At present, under the tight supply situation, the 3q quarter signing price of large and medium-sized customers is likely to be the lowest price of about 5 euros / kg For quarterly contracts in Europe, this is a historically high price In the current market landscape, European users are likely to stock in advance, in the coming weeks In summary, spot prices in Europe will be very strong in the coming weeks, well above the current level of 7 euros/kg mKt original title: Methionine: Why is it so strong?mKt On March 27, 2015, the global market price of methionine continued to rise, and despite the weakness in the price of crude oil and petrochemical products, the contract price of methionine remained strong and the contract price for the third quarter was likely to be higher than the price in Q2 The market price moves faster than expected mKt poultry demand: mKt From the global landscape, methionine consumer demand is strong and poultry farming is gradually recovering U.S market profits are well because of low feed prices and strong domestic demand for chicken And there is still the possibility of further expansion of demand in the region in 2015 Other regions such as Brazil, Europe and Japan are expected to expect demand in 2015 The demand for methionine in aquatic products is growing rapidly, and aquatic methionine will be an important part of the growth in demand in 2015 and beyond However, the recent outbreak of bird flu in the United States threatens the U.S poultry industry, and Hungary and Nigeria have reported that the global disease requires proper attention from businesses Global demand for methionine grew by around 5.5% last year, and at current estimates, 2015 is estimated to be around 6%, which means that the global methionine market needs an additional 60,000 tonnes of supplementary supply in 2015 mKt market pattern: mKt due to high technical barriers, methionine is currently only a few producers supply, in recent years some manufacturers due to lack of correct expectations of methionine demand and did not expand production, while others such as Degusay, Andesu seize the opportunity to improve their competitiveness at the same time, began to expand Data from 2014 show that the two companies are still the dominant suppliers in the market, and that's what they got from effectively estimating demand a few years ago mKt mKt mthia production: mKt affected by methionine will undoubtedly cause the unplanned discontinuation of methionine In the third quarter of 2014, the U.S methionine production plant was discontinued by intermediate supply, and these issues have been resolved and these demands have been replenished The first quarter of 2015 was affected by minor technical problems, with a small decline in production at some methionine plants in Europe, which is not common during the preparation of methionine by complex chemical synthesis In chemical production, regular shutdowns and overhauls are necessary, and French plants will be shut down in the second quarter of 2015 and will be strictly controlled in 2015 As supply has remained tight since mid-2014, most companies' strategic inventories are bound to be below historical levels This situation will have some profit protection for the methionine companies that are bidding in late 2015 mKt new capacity for 2015: mKt Sijg our sugar: mKt started in January 2015 at the methionine plant in Malaysia, with an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons, which is later than planned and is currently in the process of increasing production, making it difficult to reach full production in mid-2016 It is estimated that the plant will be able to supply about 25,000 to 30,000 tons of meth in 2015 Given the rapid growth of Higer Feed's business in Asia, there is a strong demand for methionine, so the significance of Hij's methionine for the export market supply in 2015 is limited mKt Wintron: mKt the methionine capacity of the Singapore plant will be released in large numbers in 2015 The plant has achieved its target production since the end of the fourth quarter of 2014 The plant has an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons, and Evonik says its technology could reach full production in its first year mKt Andisu: mKt the Blue Star Andesu plant in Nanjing, China, was put into operation in the first quarter of 2014, with a production capacity of 70,000 tons per year, and the plant produced 52,000 tons per year in 2014 The plant has now achieved its target production, with an expected production of 57,000 tons in 2015 and an increase of 75,000-80,000 tons per year in the second phase of operation at the end of 2016 mKt short-to-medium-term Andesu does not expand production at the European methionine plant, they will slightly increase the production of some intermediates, but will not be able to increase the production of methionine mKt Ziguang: mKt China Ziguang's plant in Ningxia is increasing production, the plant's methionine production capacity is currently 2500 tons/month, and is scheduled to increase to 3500 tons/month in the second quarter of 2015 mKt Sumitomo Chemical: mKt permanent closure of the methionine plant in China in 2014 and production in 2015 is not expected to change compared to 2014 mKt mKt Note: The data are based on 99% dL-methionine, methionine hydroxyl analogue converted into DL-methine according to 80% of the amount mKt production strategy: mKt existing methionine producers are differentiated by size, core business, expansion schedule, financial strength, product line length, market share and other factors In the context of the decline in raw material costs and energy costs, the creation of historically high levels of methionine is still strong demand, for this market, the various sizes of methionine production enterprises according to their market positioning different short-term business strategies are different Small producers maximize capacity because their extra supply does not weaken market prices Medium-sized producers follow the pricing strategy of leading manufacturers to optimize supply to avoid creating supply and demand imbalances Suffered Due to the impact of the expansion of production, Evonik occupies the dominant position in the current market, Evonik's production is likely to reach 435,000 tons, no other enterprise methionine production can be compared with Evonik Therefore, at present, Evonik adjusts output according to market demand, affecting market factors include exchange rate fluctuations, raw material costs, factory output, transportation costs, near the market.