Will China be "isolated" by the world when it implements the "virus reset"?

On August 7, Gao Qiang, the former Minister of Health, wrote an article on the "People's Daily Health Client", suggesting that strict prevention and control must be adhered to and the idea of ​​"coexisting with the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)" must be eliminated
.

Three days later, Bloomberg said in an article that, as most countries in the world began to try to coexist with SARS-CoV-2, China's "viral clearing" epidemic prevention strategy may put it at risk of isolation in the next few years

Dispel the idea of ​​"coexistence with the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)" Bloomberg China's "virus zero" epidemic prevention strategy may put it at risk of isolation in the next few years

In fact, in the face of SARS-CoV-2 mentality, most countries seem to be relatively pessimistic, thinking that as the virus continues to mutate, it is almost impossible to successfully block the spread of the virus; and China clearly has more in this fight against the epidemic.
A firm belief in the war against the epidemic
.

The focus of the controversy is whether SARS-CoV-2 can be truly eliminated.

Can SARS-CoV-2 be truly eliminated? End the new crown pneumonia (COVID-19) epidemic

Recently, the Otago University of New researchers in " BMJ " sub-published " BMJ, Ltd.
Free Join Health on" published an article entitled We should not dismiss the possibility of eradicating COVID-19: comparisons with smallpox and polio commentary
.

BMJ BMJ Global Health, University of Otago, New Zealand

By systematically comparing the eradicability of COVID-19 with infectious diseases such as smallpox and polio , the researchers proposed that it is possible for humans to end the COVID-19 pandemic , and the "chance" is slightly higher than polio and lower than smallpox
.

COVID-19 and smallpox, polio.
It is possible for humans to terminate the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Odds" are slightly higher than polio and lower than smallpox

http://dx.
doi.
org/10.
1136/bmjgh-2021-006810

According to the Bulletin of the World Health Organization, the hierarchical structure of public health intervention measures is in order of control, elimination of disease, elimination of infection, eradication, and extinction, which are specifically defined as:

●Control : reduce the incidence, prevalence, morbidity or mortality of the disease to a locally acceptable level through efforts, and continue to take intervention measures to maintain controllable diseases, such as diarrhoeal diseases;

control

●Eliminate diseases : Relevant departments have worked hard to reduce the incidence of specific diseases in specific areas to zero, and need to continue to take intervention measures to maintain the status quo, such as neonatal tetanus;

Eliminate the disease

●Eliminate infections : After a lot of hard work, the incidence of infections caused by specific pathogens in specific areas has been reduced to zero, and continuous measures must be taken to prevent infections, such as measles and polio;

Eliminate infection

●Eradication : Efforts have been made to permanently reduce the global incidence of infections caused by specific pathogens to zero, and there is no need to continue to take preventive measures, such as smallpox
.

eradicate

●  Extinction : The specific source of infection no longer exists in nature or in the laboratory
.

Extinct

Judging from the current global epidemic of COVID-19, some regions have reached the initial stage of disease control
.

In order to explore whether the world can eradicate COVID-19, researchers referred to the established factors of eradicating vaccine-preventable diseases mentioned in an article published in " Annual Review of Public Health " in 1999 , from social factors, political factors, and technical factors.

Controlling the disease Annual Review of Public Health eradicates the established factors of vaccine-preventable diseases 17 variables

The results showed that the eradication of smallpox had the highest average score of 2.

6 points ; followed by COVID-19, with a score of 1.

Smallpox has the highest average score for eradication, 2.

Technical factors : Low vaccine acceptance, more infectious and immune escape mutant strains, viruses that evolve to a certain degree, will usher in a mutated end point .

Although from a scientific point of view, whether humans can completely eliminate COVID-19 is still unknown, in terms of epidemic prevention and control, even if the virus will coexist with humans for a long time, epidemic prevention measures still cannot be relaxed, because as the former Minister of Health Gao Qiang said , "Even if the mortality rate is 0.
1%, it will spread to 10 million people, and 10,000 will die; it will spread to 100 million people, and 100,000 will die; if it will spread to 1 billion people, it will cost 1 million
.

"