Will May Day stimulate pig prices soaring?

 　　Will consumption stimulate pig prices soar on May 1st?ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The price of live pigs reached a recent high on January 5, reaching 18.
37 yuan per catty per catty, and fell to a low of 10.
21 yuan per catty on April 11, which was a drop of 8.
16 yuan per catty, a drop of 44.
4%.
In recent days, there have been frequent fluctuations and a slight rebound.
As of yesterday, the national average price of live pigs was 11.
57 yuan/jin.
At present, many friends who raise pigs are concerned about the future trend of pig prices, especially around May Day, the increase in pork consumption, will it stimulate the price of pigs to rise?ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Regarding this issue, I personally think that the probability of a big rise is small, and the market trend should be mainly volatile.
mainly because:ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The first is a significant increase in imported meat.
According to official data, the total meat imports in the first quarter was 2.
625 million tons, an increase of 20.
8% year-on-year.
In March alone, the total volume of imported meat reached 1.
024 million tons.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Second, about 50% of large pigs and secondary fattening pigs are still waiting for slaughter.
If the price rises a little, the slaughter volume will increase, and the price of pigs is difficult to rise.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The third is the increase in the number of live pigs.
The official data at the end of March was 416 million heads.
Coupled with the increase in April, the supply of live pigs will increase.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Therefore, although the May Day holiday will take five days, pork consumption will increase, but it is difficult to see a sharp increase if comprehensively considered.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Regarding the market outlook, the pig early warning analyst Feng Yonghui said: The seasonal characteristics of pork consumption demand are more obvious.
During the Dragon Boat Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, New Year's Day, and Spring Festival, pig prices may rebound in stages, but the rebound will become weaker and weaker.
It is unlikely to exceed the previous price highs.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences: It is estimated that the annual output of pork input will be close to 50 million tons, and there may be overcapacity in two years.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On April 20th, the 2021 China Agriculture Outlook Conference was held at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
The "China Agriculture Outlook Report 2021-2030" pointed out that the pig production capacity will continue to recover due to the promotion of breeding income and the supporting policies, and the prices of live pigs and pork will fall steadily.
It is expected that the price of pigs in the fourth quarter will gradually approach the normal price level.
At the Pork Outlook Symposium, Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, also said that it is expected that the annual pork input output will be close to 50 million tons.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Affected by factors such as the African swine fever and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the number of live pigs and pork production will decline in 2020.
The price of live pigs and pork for the whole year has increased significantly compared with the previous year, and pork imports reached 4.
39 million tons, a record high.
But at present, pork prices have fallen.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Zhu Zengyong gave a speech on Pork Outlook at the China Agricultural Outlook Conference.
Beijing News reporter Li AosheExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At the meeting, Zhu Zengyong said that the primary reason for the continuous decline in pork prices is the increase in the supply of pork on the market.
The total slaughter volume in January and February of 2021 increased by 44.
2% year-on-year, and the supply has clearly recovered.
"In the first half of 2020, many companies have newly expanded a large number of pig farms, so by now, this part of the products will be released at an accelerated rate.
To the market.
"ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Zhu Zengyong also said that from the end of October 2020 to February 2021, the circulation of frozen products was blocked due to epidemic prevention and control considerations, which drove the price of fresh meat at that time, but now this part of the stock of frozen products has also begun to circulate in the market in early March.
.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"At this stage, the production capacity of live pigs is gradually recovering.
Starting from April, the supply of commodities will increase significantly.
It is expected that the annual input output will be close to 50 million tons.
After the fourth quarter, the pig price of the entire live pig will gradually approach normal.
Level".
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The report also pointed out that the stimulating and supporting policies of breeding income have led to the continuous recovery of pig production capacity.
In 2021, pork production will reach 49.
27 million tons, an increase of 19.
8%.
Pork imports are expected to be 3.
8 million tons, a decrease of 13.
4% from the previous year.
Apparent pork consumption in 2021 is expected to be 52.
97 million tons, an increase of 16.
5% over the previous year.
Prices of live pigs and pork will fall steadily.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The report predicts that in the next 10 years, the average annual growth rate of China's slaughter and pork production will reach 3.
3% and 3.
8%, respectively.
In 2030, it is expected to reach 713 million and 59.
98 million tons, respectively, an increase of 23.
5 compared with the base period (2018-2020).
% And 34.
3%.
It is expected that the supply of live pigs will recover rapidly in the early period, and it will increase steadily in the later period.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In the next 10 years, the average annual growth rate of pork apparent consumption and pork per capita share will reach 3.
0% and 2.
7%, respectively.
Looking forward to the rapid growth of pork supply in the early period, the growth rate in the medium term is expected to decline significantly, and the growth rate in the later period will show a steady and slight increase.
With the recovery of pork supply, the proportion of pork in meat consumption has risen, but overall it will remain at around 60%.
In 2030, the apparent consumption of pork and the per capita share of pork are expected to reach 60.
98 million tons and 42.
13 kg, respectively.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The report believes that in the previous period, the pig price will generally be in a downward channel.
In the long run, affected by the accelerated recovery of production capacity, it is expected that the supply of live pigs may have a phased surplus after 2023.
After 2024, the price of live pigs may enter a new round of price cycle again, but the scale level will increase to stabilize the price of pigs, and the fluctuation range will be Compared with the last two cycles, it has dropped significantly.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In terms of international trade, the restoration of domestic supply will drive the gradual reduction of pork import demand, but the cost competitiveness gap supports the import volume to still show a relatively high level.
It is expected that the volume of pork imports in the early stage will still exceed 2 million tons, and it is expected to fall back to around 1.
3 million tons in 2025, and then remain at 1.
2 million tons overall.
ExK China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry