Wuhan full test positive rate of less than three hundred thousandths really can rest assured?

TextsWang Chen Wu Jing experts believe that there is no need to pursue too much "zero infection rate." According to the existing test results, screening asymptomatic infected people to be isolated, the situation in Wuhan city is very optimisticThe full nucleic acid testing in Wuhan, which started on May 15th, is nearing its endAccording to media statistics, as of May 24, more than 9 million samples and more than 6.5 million tests have been completed, a total of 189 cases of asymptomatic infection were found, the detection rate is about 0.00287%Wuhan is the first city in the world to conduct such a large-scale national nucleic acid testingThe national nucleic acid testing is another major public health event that the world has been concerned about since the outbreak of Wuhan New CrownAs the first city to break out of the new crown outbreak, the earliest to reach the peak of the epidemic, and the earliest to end the campaign, Wuhan every step, in the rest of the world is experiencing the spread of new crown pneumonia, has a very important reference significanceThe results of the national nucleic acid test are the next Wuhan City, as well as the restoration of normal life of the citizens of the important reference indicators, but also the shadow of the epidemic under the shadow of Wuhan people to restore security of important reference indicatorsThe national nucleic acid test, which covers 10 million people, is completed in ten days, with a very high efficiency, but what is the accuracy? What percentage of asymptomatic infections are detected and are safe in the population? Does the positive detection rate of 0.00287% mean that the outbreak is no longer likely to spread and that people can resume their daily lives? This national nucleic acid test, Wuhan is a "mixed" approach: 10 or 20 sampled samples mixed together, if all negative, then do not do secondary testing; An expert from the Wuhan Virus Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences believes that "mixed testing" is a testing method that takes into account the low rate of pre-determined infection, taking into account efficiency and economic factorsIf 10 million people, one by one test, it is likely to take several months to produce test results, given the population of re-infection factors, the results will not be accuratePeng Zhiyong, director of the intensive care unit at Zhongnan Hospital, believes that only the infection rate of the population is below 1%, and "mixed testing" is a more cost-effective wayIf the infection rate of the population is high, as in the early days of the Wuhan outbreak, this is to increase the cost of testingThe reason why Wuhan City adopted "mixed inspection" is based on the previous test results of some peopleFrom April 1st to April 7th, more than 270,000 people in Hubei Province tested for nucleic acids, and the positive detection rate in Wuhan City was 0.14%, while the positive detection rate in Wuhan city was only 0.027% from April 8to May 17Both data mean that the population infection rate is below 1%, and the "mixed-check" approach is reasonableIn early May, several new positive cases were found in Fruit Lake, Wuchang District, WuhanThis has become the city of Wuhan finally decided to full virus testing one of the important reasonsWuchang District in this full-time testing, at the same time selected nucleic acid testing and antibody testing, the rest of the district, only chose to do nucleic acid testingA community secretary in Jianghan District, Wuhan, restored a community-based detection sceneWuhan outbreak prevention and control command center on May 14 issued a full nucleic acid testing documents, 16 in the region 151 communities began to do testing, to the 25th a total of more than 5000 people testedIn addition to some of the previous nucleic acid testing has been done in the return of workers no longer need to do testing, priority testing the government's earliest provisions of the four categories of personnel (fever, suspected, confirmed, close contact), plus the elderly living alone, a total of 980 people, in a day to completeThese four categories of personnel are not just the spontaneous registration of the masses, but the street health service center based on the hospital diagnosis list, command list to determineOthers who have not been to the hospital, but who bought lotus capsules and anti-fever drugs during the outbreak, are also screened by each community based on data from the drug-buying group during the outbreakA street community service center sends two inspection teams to each community to test one by oneSecond, the ordinary people are testedOne resident involved in the test said that because the test sit until it is free, people want to know their situation more clearly and are very activeThe test was conducted in the neighborhood downstairs, he queued for half an hour, the test was completed for a few minutes, a week later, he got the "negative" resultsThe results of the testing of nucleic acids by the whole people in Wuhan are optimisticFirst, the number of new infections began in early April and gradually decreasedAt the beginning of April, the positive detection rate in Wuhan was 0.014%, and by May 25, it had dropped to 0.00278%The above-mentioned Wuhan virus experts believe that there are two reasons, one is that the new infected people are mostly asymptomatic infected, low viral load, weak infection; Even more than two months after the outbreak's peak, the streets of Wuhan are still sparsely populated, with people wearing masks to enter and leave public places and scan-check"With such protection, people are hard to get infected with the virus, even if they have common infections with obvious symptoms"But does this mean that asymptomatic infected people are not contagious?" Several experts gave a negative answer The above-mentioned experts believe that asymptomatic infection is weakened because the viral load of the body is lower than that of ordinary infected people, but does not mean that the spread of the virus is weakened To prove that the viral infection of asymptomatic infected people weakens, it is necessary to conduct in-the-lab validation of the pathogen, such as the discovery of important mutations in the virus But now there is no lock down the potential mutation site, can not be in a haystack like a needle to do mutation verification Peng Zhiyong believes that the recent occurrence of cluster infectionin in Harbin and other cities is caused by the importation of asymptomatic infections abroad In exchanges with foreign scholars, they learned that the physical response of new crown-infected people abroad and the behavior of domestic patients are not the same "Many patients in Europe and the United States experience loss of sense of smell, but patients in China rarely experience similar symptoms "He reasoned that it was possible that there were differences between the virus in China and the virus in China, and that there were cases of different transmission of the virus compared to those of asymptomatic infected persons abroad and those in China Both experts agree that there is no need to go too far for "zero infection rates" According to the existing 0.00278% of the test results, screening out of asymptomatic infected people to be isolated, the situation in Wuhan city is very optimistic, if this situation remains unchanged for a month, Wuhan City can be further open.