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the after-effects of neo-crown pneumonia serious?
the new crown vaccine useful?
RNA virus mutates easily, and the vaccine may not work?
there be a second wave of outbreaks in autumn and winter?
face of the brutal reality of the normalization of the new crown epidemic, everyone has a lot of worries and confusion in their hearts.
July 3, the Future Forum "Understanding the Future" scientific lecture invited Zhang Wenhong, director of the infection department of Huashan Hospital affiliated with Fudan University, and
Niu Junqi, deputy director of the Institute of Translational Medicine of Jilin University's First Hospital, to jointly analyze the rational response under the normal situation of the epidemic.
Yanning, a professor at Princeton University and a
of
the United States, once again presided over the program.first of all, I would like to report to you on the development of the epidemic around me. Princeton University closed on March 23rd, and by June 18th we finally had a return to school. But whether undergraduates will be able to return to school in the fall is not certain.
who need to do experiments in the laboratory, including doctoral students, postdoctoral students, professors, technicians can go back to school, but administrative staff, etc. , who can work from home or at home.
Our laboratory resident population is 9 people, we asked for three shifts, now we have 8 hours a shift, so 150 square meters or so of the laboratory at any time only 3 people, has been running for a week, we are slowly used to. This is the new normal in our laboratory.It is difficult to assess its after-effects in such a short period of time. I have compared myself, some of the survivors of new crown patients are very light compared to SARS.
I have a patient in intensive care ECMO, discharged from the hospital for two or three weeks, actually sent a jinqi, ran to my ward. From this point of view, it may not be the same as SARS at the time.
also have a lot of people said, after discharge from the hospital running can not run, to tell you the truth, you are a healthy person, lying in bed for two months do nothing, out of the physical fitness will also decline. What's more, I've just had a serious illness.I was unfortunately infected with severe SARS during the SARS epidemic, when I was just discharged from the hospital breathing is very difficult, CT obviously saw the fibrosis of the lungs, after about six months basically no symptoms, a year later basically fully recovered.
my personal opinion, this virus infection, depending on whether this virus infection can become chronic, this chronic premise is that the virus to continue to infect. At present, the new coronavirus is basically an acute infection process.
If the virus is removed, the body has a powerful repair function, so the possibility of lung disease becoming chronic in the future is very small, so I am not too worried about sequelae and chronication.antibody "battery life" is short, the vaccine may not be useful?
in some new coronavirus infections drop to estrestable levels two or three months after recovery, according to a new study. It is believed that vaccines may not provide long-term protection. the drop in antibody levels mean a decrease in immunity? This is not certain.
if we are long out of contact with pathogens, antibody levels must drop. The key question is whether our immune memory cells will quickly initiate our antibody response after secondary exposure to the virus. Many people get the hepatitis B vaccine, antibody levels also drop, but never ask you to keep repeating the vaccine.
whether people who have been infected will be infected again, that's the key. As long as there are no such patients so far, I don't think antibodies are protective.
So I'm now counting on U.S. doctors to keep an eye on the fact that there are so many re-infections in the U.S. that every day they come across the road, why aren't such cases recorded? This proves that antibodies are still protective, which is more critical than anything else. many people worry that the new coronavirus, as an RNA virus, is more susceptible to mutations that could make the vaccine already developed ineffective. , there are about 133 vaccine studies registered worldwide, mainly in China, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. After a pre-assessment of safety and ability, only 11 of these vaccines actually entered the human body, six of which were Chinese and two of which were studied in cooperation between China and the United States.
variety of vaccines, in which inactivated vaccines use the entire virus as an antigen, so it produces a multiclonal antibody that may prevent mutations from making the vaccine ineffective. RNA viruses can be divided into positive and negative chains. Influenza is a negative-chain RNA virus with more mutations. But the positive chain RNA virus also contains hepatitis A, hepatitis E, rubella, brain B and so on. For all these viruses, our inactivated vaccines are actually successful.
the largest of the inactivated vaccines is the ADE problem, so we will have to wait for the third phase of clinical studies.
(ADE effect: i.e. antibody-dependent enhancement effect. The antibodies produced by a one-time infection of some viruses not only fail to heal the virus, but make the symptoms of secondary infection even worse. The ADE effect can lead to some vaccines being ineffective or even harmful the so-called second wave in autumn and winter is now the second wave to come down.
Western Europe is well controlled, East Asia is well controlled, and we may face a second wave of challenges, because all respiratory infections, if not group immunity, its epidemic has not been completely terminated, in winter, the degree of virus replication to increase, indoor activities to increase, the two cases together, the risk of a second wave of rebound will be greater.
So there are risks around the world this autumn and winter, but there is no such problem for India, the United States, Brazil, Russia, and now their peaks are not very clear and are still in the first wave.