Zhong Nanshan on the latest judgment of the situation of the epidemic, it is too early to talk about the inflection point of the global epidemic! 12 latest judgments

Zhong Nanshan's latest judgment on the situation of the epidemic is here! (1) The United States in the last week at the rate of one or two thousand cases, it is too early to talk about the global outbreak inflection point; (2) the most negative approach is the so-called "group immunization", which is the idea of more than a hundred years ago; (3) the risk of overseas imported case transmission is certainly present, but the possibility of a secondary outbreak in China is small; (4) still need to wear a mask, do a good job of self-protection! Zhou Zhi! (People's Daily) Zhong Nanshan's 12 latest judgments on the outbreak ,full text" can now remove masks? Is asymptomatic infected person contagious? Are there infectious diseases among animals? When will the inflection point of the global outbreak come? In response to these problems, look at the Chinese Academy of Engineering, respiratory disease expert Zhong Nanshan said.
, now is not the time to take off the mask is not the time to take off the mask.
the current situation at home and abroad, China has taken very decisive measures, now into the second phase of the outbreak, while other major countries are still in the first phase of the outbreak, and is still climbing.
this means that the chances of human-to-human transmission are very high and the number of confirmed cases increases very quickly.
wearing a mask is still an important means of self-protection, it is too early to suggest not to wear it.
However, in areas where the outbreak is not serious, places with fewer people or open spaces are not necessarily necessary to wear.
, Wuhan clearance, but there is the next pass Wuhan unsealed, I am also very happy.
outbreak, the central government decisively stepped in to control the traffic of Wuhan city, other places to take group prevention and control measures, is very successful, in the history of epidemic prevention and control, this is also a feat.
still faces two tests.
one is how to side prevention and control, side work, the other is "external defense input" off.
is still at the peak of the outbreak abroad, some of China's coastal cities with close exchanges abroad can easily be rolled in and some outbreaks, but also need to pass through through a variety of prevention and control measures.
Third, overseas imports caused by the second outbreak of China outbreak small foreign import editing cases continue to appear, will it cause community transmission, triggering the second outbreak of the outbreak in China? This is actually two questions, one is whether the foreign imported cases have spread, and the other is whether there will be an outbreak in the course of transmission.
the risk of transmission of imported cases abroad is certainly present, especially in cases where nucleic acids test positive or have developed symptoms of infection, it is more contagious and will cause the spread of the virus. Will
cause an outbreak? The probability of estimation is relatively small.
China's group prevention group control has been sinking to the community, community residents have a strong sense of self-protection, such as wearing masks, people to maintain distance, once someone has fever and other symptoms, but also can quickly report or accept diagnosis, and then isolation.
overall, there is certainly a risk of community transmission, but the chances of a second major outbreak in China are slim.
Thursday, it is too early to talk about the global outbreak inflection point from the global perspective, the original outbreak of the "epicenter" in Europe, especially Spain and Italy, and now also includes Germany, France, the United Kingdom.
the biggest problem in the United States, which has been increasing at a rate of 120,000 a day in recent weeks.
so it's too early to see the inflection point.
to the inflection point, it depends on whether the government can intervene forcefully.
other countries have a lot of unfathomable factors, so it's much harder for me to predict a global inflection point now than to predict China.
the current situation, I am afraid it will take another two weeks.
V. The proportion of asymptomatic infected people in China will not be very large asymptomatic infected people will not produce out of thin air, usually appear in two groups: First, in the relatively serious areas of the epidemic, temporarily have not shown symptoms, but may have been infected people.
another is a close contact with a confirmed case.
they still make up a relatively small proportion.
asymptomatic infected people also have two concepts, one is at first asymptomatic, but then gradually developed to have symptoms, this kind is certainly contagious.
another type that we have recently discovered, has been asymptomatic during a considerable period of observation, but nucleic acids have tested positive.
this kind of contagion, we're working on it.
but according to the characteristics of the new coronavirus, once the symptoms appear, the infectious is more strong, so they as a group of people to observe the isolation, such a strategy is correct.
6, Fuyang patients mostly do not infect the so-called "fuyang", most should be nucleic acid fragments rather than the virus itself.
need to pay attention to two conditions, the first is whether the patient himself is relapsed, if the patient produces a strong antibody, generally will not be infected again.
as to Fuyang patients will not be infected with others, need a specific analysis.
generally, nucleic acid fragments are not contagious.
some scholars have cultured pharynx swabs and secretions in patients with Fuyang, and did not develop viruses.
there is a very small situation where the patient had a lot of underlying diseases, but the symptoms improved and did not fully recover, and these patients could not be ruled out as contagious.
overall, Fuyang patients with non-infectious, I personally are not too worried.
7, the new crown pneumonia flu has not enough evidence that the new crown pneumonia will not be as long-term as the flu? This is a one-way view.
until now, there is not enough evidence.
unless the virus spreads into the rule that it is still strong, but the fatality rate is getting lower and lower, in which case there is a long-term possibility.
we now need a long-term observation, with sufficient data, cases, in order to come up with such a view.
in the present situation, I don't think that prediction would be realistic.
8, the spread of animals now too early to conclude that dogs, cats, tigers and other animals nucleic acid test positive, whether pollution caused, or infection, it remains to be seen.
some animals originally have some viruses, not necessarily symptoms, not necessarily infected.
now think that these animals in the new coronavirus can infect both people, but also infect animals, and can cause disease, the conclusion is too early, generally I would not look at it.
9, there is no special effect son, but found some effective drugs we are now testing some drugs, such as chloroquine, the results of the trial is certainly effective, we are summarizing, may soon be published.
there are some traditional Chinese medicine, such as Lianhua Qing, we not only did the outlier experiments, but also in the P3 laboratory (i.e., biosecurity protection three-level laboratory) found that it is not strong antiviral, but anti-inflammatory outstanding performance, the results of the experiment will soon be published.
in addition to the Chinese medicine blood must be net, its main ingredients include safflower, dansan, red, etc. , for the activation of blood, the treatment of seriously ill patients is also effective, we are now also in the summary.
, the vaccine will not be on the market soon to really end the outbreak, the vaccine is very important, now countries are developing at the fastest speed.
but I don't think the vaccine will be available in three or four months.
in addition, according to the experience of fighting SARS, removing the intermediate host can also stop the spread of the epidemic.
at this time, we do not yet know what the transmission chain of the new crown virus is, it is also important to find out after cutting off.
put all hope on vaccines, and the other methods are negative.
and the vaccine out, it is not possible to be very perfect at once, easy-to-feel people can play, but there is no need for all the crowd to play.
11, group immunity is the most negative approach to the outbreak of the most negative approach is the so-called group immunity, this is more than a hundred years ago, when humans have no way, can only allow viral infection, infected people who survive naturally get antibodies.
i don't agree with the new crown virus in this way now.
In the past 100 years, mankind has made great progress, there are many ways to prevent it, no longer need to use natural immunization, group immunity.
12, China's most worthy experience of anti-epidemic is the implementation of China's war "epidemic" mainly took two major measures: first, the outbreak area to block, block transmission;
now the core of prevention and control is also two, the first is to keep a distance, the second is to wear a mask.
so the most shared experience is execution.
many countries' medical level, technical strength than China is much higher, the reason in the face of the epidemic was caught off guard, is because there is no ideological preparation, also did not take decisive measures, resulting in a lot of first-line medical personnel infected, and this line of defense once broken, it will easily get out of control.
Zhong Nanshan judged the direction of the guangzhou epidemic on Sunday, April 12, 2020 at 3:30 p.m., the press office of the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government held a press conference on the prevention and control of the outbreak in Guangzhou at the Yuexiu Campus of Guangzhou Medical University (a total of 75).
facing the pressure of overseas imports, is the overall situation of the guangzhou epidemic controllable? How should Guangzhou deal with the risk of infection of asymptomatic infected people? Zhong Nanshan, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and an expert in respiratory medicine, will give an update on the direction of the outbreak in Guangzhou.
is the press conference recorded below.
. Xinhua News Agency asked: In order to prevent and control the import of overseas outbreaks, Guangzhou and other cities are taking entry must be detected and 14 days of centralized isolation and other strict prevention and control measures, to assume the responsibility of "keeping the country door", how do you evaluate the effectiveness of this measure? Do you think there is any further measures that need to be taken on the basis of the existing ones? Guangzhou to assume the role of "guarding the country": to take nucleic acid testing and 14-day isolation "full coverage" is right: for the prevention and control of overseas outbreaks input, Guangzhou and other cities are taking entry must detect and 14 days of centralized isolation and other strict prevention and control measures, to assume the "gate-keeping" of the heavy responsibility, Zhong Nanshan believes that Guangzhou after March 27 to adopt the full coverage measures of nucleic acid detection, in fact, upgraded.
China from the end of February and the beginning of March, the number of cases began to decline, the number of cases more than 80,000, more than 3,000 deaths, basically under control.
abroad, the number of people in Europe has been increasing, from Italy, Spain, then France, Germany, britain, until this morning, still hovering high. Whether
is on the platform is not yet good to say.
is even worse in the United States, with 20,000 a day rising to 530,000 and nearly 4 percent of deaths.
also a situation is in Africa, and India and other large population countries, how many sick, how many deaths, is not clear.
because there is no test, from the importcase cases, indeed Africa, India has an outbreak, this is very certain.
the rise of foreign outbreaks, increasing cases, in the climbing stage, China is in the basic control stage, such a contrast will certainly have foreign infection, if not I feel strange.
therefore rely on prevention, rather than the production of antibodies, join do not take input full coverage of nucleic acid testing, it is difficult to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
the United States next week to start a national census, in order to find out how many people have been infected, rather than testing how many people are infected, test IgG, theoretically there are antibodies can be resumed, but I think this is not the time, the national census is very important, but this is not the first, the advantage of the census is as long as "yes" on isolation.
China to take full coverage of nucleic acid testing and isolation two weeks of full coverage, I think it is right.
the world is now like this, and there should be no difference.
in Guangzhou, I think it was a good thing to find out earlier.
2. Central Radio and Television Station: Recently, there have been a number of overseas imported cases of related cases in Guangzhou, does it mean that the outbreak in Guangzhou has rebounded? For Guangzhou and other international lysing in large cities, the next stage of prevention and control on your recommendations? What should be the prevention of individuals? It is good for Guangzhou to detect the associated cases of imported cases from abroad early: One of the key words in your problem is "associated cases".
because foreigners have friends, relatives or homes in Guangzhou.
these associated cases are not necessarily foreigners, or may be Chinese.
it's good to be able to detect these associated cases of imported cases from abroad. The key
is early detection and approach.
, it's more about the importance we need to focus on avoiding crowd density.
I don't believe in coming in from anywhere else, i don't believe it.
I am not an infectious disease expert, but infectious diseases have no boundaries, the cause has not been eradicated, there will certainly be infection.
Guangzhou to take measures, early detection, early isolation, early treatment, is definitely a good thing.
what is called a rebound, there is an outbreak of large groups.
so, at the moment I don't think it's a rebound, it's a good result to be found early.
in the current situation, these prevention and control measures may seem inconvenient, but do so, because the outbreak abroad is not well controlled.
in Spain and Italy, you can see the peak, but recently Germany came up and Britain is on the rise, and in this case the right thing to do is.
in fact, Japan and South Korea's measures are similar, even more stringent.
in the present situation, the measures we are doing are right.
only after the situation in foreign countries is under control can we slowly ease it.
most of China is currently immune, but vaccines are not so fast, and by the end of the year and early next year, it will be possible.
. Guangzhou Daily News: At present, Guangzhou is in accordance with General Secretary Xi Jinping's deployment requirements for the orderly promotion of the resumption of work and production, one-handed grasp of epidemic prevention and control, one-handed recovery of work and production.
What advice do you have for this? Guangzhou is at a critical time, the resumption of work and production must go forward, do not because of individual infections on the way back" The current Guangzhou is in accordance with General Secretary Xi Jinping on the orderly promotion of the deployment of the resumption of production requirements, one-handed catch of epidemic prevention and control, one-handed recovery of production.
, Zhong Nanshan put forward his own proposal.
Zhong Nanshan said that Guangzhou was before home work, now began to resume work, began to resume school, with the resulting higher risk, infection, contact opportunities are higher, but also more dangerous. how do
handle these two relationships? Only do a good job of prevention and control, in order to resume normal work, not to do a good job of prevention and control, not only can not resume production, but may stop production. how
to prevent and control and resume production with two hands? Zhong Nanshan said, to be very cautious, must take step by step, this is the test.