Reassessing the Middle East’s Oil amid a Stalled War

Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, Iran, and Iraq are the five founding members of OPEC. Qatar—another major oil and especially natural gas producer and exporter in the Middle East—joined OPEC in 1961, but withdrew effective January 1, 2019, marking one of the most significant withdrawals in OPEC’s history. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the fourth-largest oil producer and exporter in the Middle East, trailing only Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq. Abu Dhabi—one of the UAE’s seven emirates—joined OPEC in 1967, becoming the eighth member country. In recent years, facing mounting global pressure on the oil and gas sector due to climate concerns and other issues, the UAE has actively pursued economic transformation and aims to build a competitive knowledge-based economy; its oil and gas industry remains the primary source of funding for economic diversification. In 2020, the UAE announced a $122 billion investment plan targeting an increase in oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2030. Unlike Saudi Arabia and others, which maintain more restrictive policies, the UAE has opened its oil and gas production to international capital. Major international oil companies—including BP and TotalEnergies—as well as Chinese firms such as CNPC and Zhenhua Oil, all hold stakes in UAE oil and gas projects. Regarding the OPEC+ alliance formed on January 1, 2017, and its ongoing production-cutting measures, the UAE has long voiced reservations, arguing that output restrictions have left one-third of its oil production capacity idle. At the 16th OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting on April 27, 2021, the UAE was assigned a production quota of 3.168 million barrels per day—a figure it strongly opposed, demanding instead a baseline quota of 3.8 million barrels per day. Due to the UAE’s noncompliance, the originally scheduled 18th OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting on July 1, 2021, was canceled, forcing OPEC+ to convene the 19th Ministerial Meeting directly on July 18, 2021. Under this arrangement—and while other members maintained cuts—the UAE’s 2024 production quota was raised by 200,000 barrels per day. At the 37th OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting held on June 2, 2024, the UAE’s 2025 daily production quota was further increased by 300,000 barrels. During this period, the UAE repeatedly signaled its intention to exit OPEC. On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates announced its formal withdrawal from both OPEC and the OPEC+ framework, effective May 1, 2026. Suhail Al Mazrouei, UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, stated: “For many years, the UAE has been a steadfast member of OPEC and the OPEC+ framework. Global energy demand will continue rising, and the world needs more energy supply. This decision will enable the UAE to collaborate more flexibly with partners and investors to ensure future global market needs are met—not only for crude oil and petrochemicals, but also for natural gas and other energy sources.” On May 3, 2026, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) announced an accelerated business growth initiative, allocating AED 200 billion (approximately USD 55 billion) for tenders on oil projects. Currently, the UAE’s crude oil production capacity stands at 4.85 million barrels per day, and is projected to reach 5 million barrels per day by 2027.

Crude Oil Research Report: U.S.–Iran Conclude First Round of Talks; Geopolitical Premium Retreat Triggers Oil Price Adjustment

3. Crude oil production status across Gulf countries: Markets are closely watching how quickly oil production recovers across Gulf-producing nations following de-escalation of regional conflict. Chapter I: Review of International Crude Oil Market Trends U.S.–Iran Tensions Continue to Ease; International Oil Prices Decline Amid Volatility This week (June 18–24), crude oil prices overall exhibited a volatile downward trend, with the weekly average price declining on a week-on-week basis. During the week, multiple media outlets—including Xinhua News Agency and China Central Television (CCTV)—reported that the U.S. and Iran concluded their first round of negotiations in Switzerland. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that the parties achieved breakthrough progress in a constructive atmosphere and reached consensus on a roadmap toward finalizing a comprehensive agreement within 60 days. According to Iranian sources, the nuclear program was not discussed during these initial talks; instead, the focus centered on implementing Article 13 of the recently signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), with priority given to issues related to Lebanon. Additionally, the U.S. eased restrictions on energy-related transactions with Iran: the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Oman and Iran jointly issued a statement in Muscat reaffirming their shared commitment—consistent with applicable international law—to ensuring safe and unimpeded passage through the Strait. Decline in Spot Prices Across the Gulf This week (June 18–24), the average spot price for international crude oil declined week-on-week. In the Middle East spot market, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) sold at least 18 million barrels of UAE crude in its third round of spot cargo tenders this month. Following this transaction, ADNOC’s total spot crude sales for June reached at least 48 million barrels. Moreover, after lifting force majeure declarations and announcing new production ramp-up plans, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation tendered crude oil cargoes for July delivery. QatarEnergy offered marine, land, and Al-Shaheen crude cargoes, each sized at 2 million barrels. In the Asian spot crude market, Indian Oil Corporation issued a vessel charter tender to transport crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from ports along the Strait of Hormuz—but no bids were submitted in response to this tender. Chapter II: Key Events in the Crude Oil Market U.S. Temporarily Eases Restrictions on Iran-Related Energy Transactions On June 22, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a General License for Iran. This license authorizes covered entities to conduct compliant transactions involving the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products, valid until 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on August 21, 2026. Per the MoU recently signed between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. Treasury pledged to issue exemption licenses—effective from the MoU’s signing date until full sanctions relief—to permit exports of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, as well as all associated banking, insurance, and transportation services. Subject to specified exceptions, all routine, necessary transactions supporting the exploration, sale, transportation, and unloading of the above-mentioned Iranian oil and gas products are exempt from sanctions. These include port calls, crew safety assurance, emergency repairs, environmental remediation, vessel management, crew provisioning, bunkering, pilotage, flag registration, insurance, classification surveys, and salvage operations. The license covers Iranian oil and gas products—including those produced by Iranian entities currently under U.S. sanctions—and explicitly permits importing such Iranian oil and gas products into the United States to fulfill purchase, sale, and transportation contracts.

ADNOC Issues Third Tender for UAE Crude Cargoes, Traders Say

Jun 15, 2026

ADNOC issued its third crude oil tender this month for June to August loading, offering up to 2 million barrels of key grades priced against the Dubai benchmark.

reuters

2026-06-08

ADNOC issues second tender for UAE crude cargoes in one week

2026-06-15

ADNOC Issues Third Tender for UAE Crude Cargoes, Traders Say

2026-06-16

ADNOC sells at least 30 million barrels crude in supply boost, sources say

2026-06-30

Abu Dhabi Proposes New Oil-Pricing System to Mirror Wider Market

2026-07-08

UAE's ADNOC expands energy partnership with South Korea