News Frontline | China's Role in the U.S.-Iran Conflict

Kepler data shows that following the outbreak of the conflict, China’s imports of Iranian crude oil dropped sharply: peaking at 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, falling to 785,000 bpd in June, and further declining to 523,000 bpd in July. Yet Vortexa statistics indicate that Iranian crude still accounts for a substantial share of China’s total crude imports—over 24% in May and holding steady at 18% in June. Even with reduced procurement volumes, China remains Iran’s largest overseas buyer of crude oil, while continuing to import significant volumes from Saudi Arabia. According to a Reuters report on Wednesday, a military procurement agreement valued between $60 million and $70 million is imminent, under which Iran will receive its first batch of Chinese-made man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) within weeks to restore its short-range air defense capabilities damaged by months of U.S.-Israeli strikes. In response, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the report, stating it has “no factual basis.” 3. Commercial behavior of Chinese refineries Independent domestic refineries—not state-owned giants—are the primary drivers of Iranian crude imports into China. Since the U.S. reimposed sanctions on Iran in 2018, major state-owned refining and petrochemical enterprises have largely ceased direct purchases of Iranian crude. Multiple crude traders revealed that over the past few weeks, independent Chinese refineries—mainly based in Shandong Province—have collectively purchased 16–20.5 million barrels of crude oil from Qatar, Iraq, and the UAE—the largest volume of non-sanctioned Middle Eastern crude they have procured since the regional conflict erupted. It is reported that Shenghong Petrochemical, a major private-sector refining and petrochemical enterprise in China, has also secured crude oil orders totaling approximately 12 million barrels from Iraq, Abu Dhabi, and Saudi Arabia. A large-scale influx of crude oil from other Gulf producers into the Chinese market has directly squeezed demand for Iranian crude: ・ Traders report that European commodity trading firms—including Mercuria and Vitol—alongside CNPC International, Zhenhua Oil, and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), are supplying substantial volumes of August and September cargo shipments, priced at a discount of $5–$8 per barrel relative to Brent crude spot prices. ・ By contrast, Iranian light crude trades only $2–$3 per barrel below Brent, significantly diminishing its purchasing appeal. Two traders noted that even amid weakening demand, Iranian exporters remain unwilling to deepen discounts; one senior trader bluntly stated that, among regionally comparable crude grades, Iranian crude has become the most expensive option. Despite renewed escalation of regional tensions, maritime shipping activity has not been interrupted. Vortexa’s shipping data shows that between June 15 and July 6, approximately 30 million barrels of Iranian crude were loaded onto tankers—an average of 1.35 million bpd. Kepler estimates that between June 14 and July 10, 21 tankers carried 34.5 million barrels of Iranian crude through the Strait of Hormuz. Data from the anti-Iranian nuclear organization “United Against Nuclear Iran” indicates that since the ceasefire declaration on June 14, a total of 52 tankers have departed Iranian ports carrying roughly 62 million barrels of Iranian crude and refined products. Of these, 15 vessels have already reached the Singapore Strait and are en route to storage and transshipment facilities near Malaysia; another three Iranian-operated very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have completed unloading. Kepler data shows that in mid-July, China’s daily imports of Iranian crude stood at just 556,000 bpd—the lowest level since January 2023.

4 Million Barrels Daily! Energy Lifeline Amid War: Middle Eastern Oil Producers Stabilize Global Oil Prices via 'Dark Shipping'

Prior to the outbreak of the Iran conflict, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz—accounting for about one-fifth of global oil supply. Following the conflict’s onset, throughput on this critical corridor contracted sharply—but actual flow remains higher than widely anticipated by markets. Chris Wright’s disclosed figure of 9 million bpd falls at the upper end of various estimates, approaching half the pre-conflict volume. Insiders further note that actual throughput exceeds the market’s commonly cited benchmark of 4 million bpd; however, because participating “dark-shipping” vessels deliberately conceal their identities and movements, traders and analysts alike struggle to accurately quantify the scale. According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg—as well as data from Kpler and Vortexa—crude oil from Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait, in addition to the UAE, is also being exported via the Strait of Hormuz using similar covert methods. “Shuttle Transport” Gathers Momentum in the Gulf of Oman The core node of this transportation system lies in the waters off Oman’s coast at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. EU “Sentinel-1” satellite data currently shows around 150 vessels anchored in this area—including very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and bulk carriers—compared to only about 40 vessels in January this year. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, the number of vessels anchored near Sohar in the Gulf of Oman has likewise surged dramatically. Most of these vessels await cargo transfers from ships that have switched off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders and traversed the Strait of Hormuz; they then relay the cargo to larger tankers bound for global markets. This “shuttle transport trade” model has persisted for several months and now constitutes a central pillar of wartime energy supply chains. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the UAE’s state-owned oil giant, stated: “Although our vessels have repeatedly come under attack, we remain determined to fulfill our responsibilities—to safely supply energy to global markets—and to do our utmost to meet customer needs and honor our commitments.” The company has sold approximately 135 million barrels of crude oil to global buyers and launched a new round of sales last week. Transportation activities are costly and risks persist Insiders emphasize that the current situation falls far short of normal for Middle Eastern oil producers. Individuals familiar with shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz say that actual maritime incidents occurring there far exceed publicly disclosed figures—encompassing both attacks on merchant vessels and defensive actions taken by Western naval forces against harassers to protect transit cargo ships.

ADNOC Trading buys millions of barrels of Iraqi crude, sources say

Sep 15, 2026

ADNOC purchased millions of barrels of discounted Iraqi crude in August and September, significantly boosting Iraq's exports amid regional supply disruptions caused by the Iran war.

reuters

ADNOC Trading buys millions of barrels of Iraqi crude, sources say

FAQ