What is the new landscape for global oil and gas exploration and development in the future?

Most evaluation and exploration activities in these 'energy super-basins' are focused on low-carbon natural gas, such as the Rovuma Basin in Mozambique (East Africa), the Pre-Caspian Basin in Kazakhstan (Central Asia), and the Sarawak Basin in Malaysia. Operators will refine estimates of resource potential and assess the feasibility of integrating fields with carbon capture and storage (CCS) infrastructure to enhance economic viability and achieve long-term emissions reduction goals. Over 70% of new projects coming online in 2025 will be natural gas–focused, with natural gas development dominating in the Asia-Pacific region, Russia–Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe—only the Americas region will focus primarily on oil development. Crude oil production in the Americas will grow robustly; in addition to the Permian Basin, the Gulf of Mexico and Latin America will also make significant contributions. In 2025, crude oil production in the Americas will increase strongly by 1.135 million barrels per day (bpd). Specifically: U.S. shale oil from the Permian Basin will grow along a new 'slow-growth' trajectory, adding an estimated 300,000 bpd; deepwater production in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to rise by 300,000 bpd; Brazil’s pre-salt deepwater fields in Latin America are projected to add 300,000 bpd; Guyana’s fourth floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel will commence operations at the Yellowtail and Redtail discoveries, contributing 135,000 bpd; and Argentina’s shale oil output will increase by 100,000 bpd. Due to divergent corporate strategies, the outlook for upstream asset mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is fragmented. Meanwhile, policy support for the oil and gas industry from the new U.S. administration may become a key catalyst driving M&A transaction growth. Among international oil companies (IOCs): Shell is the most likely to launch a major acquisition in 2025, as its production is expected to peak in 2028 and then fall significantly behind its U.S. peers after 2030. However, with its solid balance sheet, Shell has both the motivation and capacity to pursue upstream acquisitions—primarily targeting liquefied natural gas (LNG) and deepwater assets. BP’s development outlook remains relatively stable through 2033; however, if considering corporate transactions, its comparatively weaker financial strength and less attractive equity currency limit its options. Given its portfolio and financial positioning, BP will concentrate on its U.S. business and seek expansion via partnerships or strategic joint ventures. Eni aims to improve its balance sheet and reduce net investment; it plans asset sales in 2025, with the most anticipated being its stakes in Indonesia’s Kutai Basin and Côte d’Ivoire’s Baleine field—both expected to attract strong interest from IOCs and national oil companies (NOCs). ExxonMobil possesses an excellent portfolio with no obvious acquisition needs, yet its highly rated stock in capital markets enables easy stock-for-asset swaps to facilitate transactions. Chevron’s $60 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation remains subject to a potential decision in mid-2025; should the deal fail, Chevron may instead choose to increase investment in its existing Permian Basin assets, return cash to shareholders via share buybacks, or identify potential corporate targets for equity swaps. Among NOCs: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Saudi Aramco are actively seeking global strategic natural gas assets. In 2024, ADNOC partnered with BP and acquired Galp’s stake in Mozambique’s Block 4; in November, it announced the establishment of XRG—a new $80 billion international investment subsidiary tasked with managing global chemicals, low-carbon energy, and international natural gas businesses. This move positions ADNOC to continue acquiring suitable assets globally in 2025.

Global oil and gas investment focus is shifting toward Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi recently stated that, due to ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil and gas industry’s investment focus is shifting toward Southeast Asia and Latin America. Descalzi noted that natural gas projects in Southeast Asia are surging, with the potential to boost regional natural gas production by 18%. Eni and Petronas have formally established Searah—a 50/50 joint venture—to operate 19 natural gas assets across Indonesia and Malaysia. The formation of this JV aims to accelerate natural gas development and further increase regional output. In Latin America, Eni is collaborating with ADNOC’s subsidiary XRG to develop liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities in Argentina, with an estimated investment of approximately $30 billion. Meanwhile, the two parties are jointly building a $1.2 billion, 527-kilometer pipeline to transport natural gas from Argentina’s Neuquén Basin to the Atlantic coast.

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