Trump plans to build one of the world’s largest natural gas pipelines—from Alaska to supply Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

Executive Summary: Trump plans to construct a massive natural gas pipeline from Alaska to Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, and Taiwan—potentially reshaping the global energy landscape. The project has drawn attention from Asian allies; although it faces steep costs and logistical hurdles, it could reduce dependence on Russian LNG and bolster U.S. trade advantages. Trump is actively promoting the initiative to narrow the U.S. trade deficit and strengthen American energy exports. The U.S. is preparing to make a major move in energy supply—and Russia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is set for a serious blow! According to a Bloomberg report on March 5, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that several countries and regions—including Japan and South Korea—wish to partner with the United States to build a giant natural gas pipeline from Alaska. He noted these interested parties are willing to jointly invest “hundreds of billions of dollars” with the U.S. to construct a pipeline delivering natural gas from Alaska to Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, and Taiwan. Once confirmed, this project would fundamentally transform the global natural gas and LNG markets. Trump boldly told lawmakers: “It will be spectacular. Everything is ready. Permits secured.” He made these remarks during an address to the U.S. Congress, emphasizing that, once built, the Alaska natural gas pipeline would rank among the world’s largest. Prior to Trump’s statement, U.S. officials had held weeks of talks with Asian allies to attract investment and secure agreements to purchase natural gas from Alaska LNG enterprises. Although the project has been under discussion for decades, it continues to face resistance due to its high cost and enormous scale—including the challenge of constructing a 1,290-kilometer pipeline across the state. In February, Trump pressed Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on the project during a meeting, securing his commitment to cooperate on enhancing energy security—including increasing U.S. LNG exports to Japan on mutually beneficial terms. At a joint press conference with Prime Minister Ishiba, Trump also stated Japan would import record volumes of U.S. natural gas. On March 5, Prime Minister Ishiba said expanding imports of U.S. natural gas, bioethanol, and ammonia “serves the national interests of both Japan and the United States,” as it would stabilize Japan’s energy supply and reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Ishiba added Japan “will carefully examine its technical feasibility and profitability.” Although Japan has not yet finalized participation in the Alaska pipeline project, it is actively conducting feasibility studies. Japan’s Trade Minister plans to visit Washington this month to seek tariff exemptions from Trump and discuss plans to increase purchases of U.S. LNG. Following Trump’s congressional address, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy stated that its minister had discussed the Alaska natural gas pipeline project with U.S. officials during a recent Washington visit—but no details have yet been confirmed. U.S. officials—including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright—have engaged with Korean representatives on the project. South Korea’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy said the Korean side “will actively engage in discussions with the United States, as this matter concerns the shared interests of both countries.”

What impact do key milestones of the Alaska LNG project have on the global energy market?

I. Project Overview and Key Milestones The Alaska LNG project is currently one of the world’s largest and most expensive LNG export terminal projects. It is being advanced by developer Glenfarne Group, with the State of Alaska retaining a 25% equity stake. Core infrastructure includes: an approximately 800-mile natural gas pipeline transporting gas southward from the North Slope fields to the Kenai Peninsula; an LNG export terminal at Nikiski; and a gas processing plant on the North Slope. Total estimated investment stands at roughly $44 billion, with an annual export target capacity of 20 million tonnes—primarily destined for Asian markets. Key current milestones include: • May 2020: Received full approval from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)—to date, the only LNG export project on the U.S. West Coast to obtain comprehensive federal permitting. • March 2025: Equity restructuring completed; Glenfarne formally assumed 75% ownership and became the lead developer, succeeding the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC). • Late 2025–early 2026: Completion of Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) and cost assessment, paving the way for Final Investment Decision (FID). • 2026: Target FID for the pipeline segment. • Early 2027: Target FID for the export terminal. • 2029: Completion of Phase I of the pipeline, commencing natural gas deliveries to North Slope residents and military bases. • 2031: Commencement of LNG export operations, with first cargo shipments planned. • Late 2030s: Full-scale operation at 20 million tonnes per annum. To date, the project has preliminarily secured annual off-take commitments totaling 13 million tonnes—approximately 65% of its planned export capacity. To trigger FID, developers require contracts covering at least 80% of capacity; thus, about 3 million tonnes remain to be contracted. Negotiations with multiple prospective buyers are ongoing. --- II. Key Dimensions of Impact on the Global Energy Market 1. Reshaping Global LNG Supply Diversification and Reducing Reliance on Single Producers Today’s global LNG market relies heavily on a handful of major exporters: Qatar, Australia, the U.S. Gulf Coast, and Russia. The addition of the Alaska LNG project will open an entirely new supply corridor, effectively dispersing market dependence on these concentrated sources and lowering risks of supply disruption caused by geopolitical tensions or natural disasters. Notably, recent military conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted roughly 20% of global LNG supply. Qatar’s LNG exports via the Strait of Hormuz have been interrupted, sharply heightening market urgency for diversified supply sources. Because Alaska LNG lies geographically distant from conflict zones and does not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, its strategic value has significantly increased during this period. 2. Disrupting Asia’s LNG Import Landscape and Reshaping Regional Competition Alaska’s location on the North Pacific offers a distinct shipping advantage: transit time to major Asian markets—including Japan and South Korea—is only about one-third that of Middle Eastern supplies (roughly 8–10 days), and approximately 40% shorter than shipments from the U.S. Gulf Coast. This substantial transportation advantage gives Alaska LNG inherent cost competitiveness in Asian markets. Currently, major Asian LNG importers—including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand—have expressed strong interest in the Alaska LNG project.

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