Is Anthropic, valued at $2 trillion, worth buying?

Translated by: Haozhen In April this year, a buyer offered Anthropic a valuation of approximately $600 billion. By August, some investors projected that Anthropic’s valuation at IPO could reach $2 trillion—or even higher. In reality, sustaining such a valuation would require Anthropic to maintain rapid growth over the coming years—but OpenAI’s accelerating progress has once again introduced uncertainty into this outlook. Just last week, OpenAI launched Astra—a model whose performance stunned many observers. Numerous developers have begun reconsidering whether to migrate from Claude Code to Codex, prompting renewed market questions: If a single model update from a competitor can lure users away, what will Anthropic rely on to sustain long-term growth? We believe that, even amid intensifying competition, Anthropic continues to lead in product sensibility and organizational cohesion. We remain optimistic about the potential of the ‘Claude’ brand and the company’s investments in AI for Science. Yet the revenue impact of these opportunities—beyond raw model capability—depends critically on Anthropic’s ability to integrate deeply into enterprise contexts and retain customers through robust distribution channels and a thriving product ecosystem. Jon Ma, Co-Founder of investment data platform Artemis and former investment analyst at Insight Partners, offers a more bullish take. We’ve translated his latest article, ‘Anthropic 2030’. In his view, Anthropic remains a compelling buy even at a $2 trillion valuation—and could achieve $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2030. In the long term, Anthropic is poised to become the AWS of the AI era—and potentially the world’s first company to reach a $10 trillion valuation. 01. Anthropic Will Become the World’s First Company Valued at $10 Trillion Anthropic will become the world’s first company valued at $10 trillion—driven by strong enterprise demand for its frontier models and full-stack product suite. • From an AI spending perspective, open-source models have not yet posed a material threat to Anthropic: Although Artemis has shifted some token usage toward open-source models, 97% of its AI budget still flows to Anthropic. • Globally, fewer than 1% of enterprises currently deploy AI agents—meaning agent adoption remains in the very early, exponential phase of an S-curve. • Compute constraints will be resolved: Anthropic may raise over $100 billion in net proceeds via its IPO—setting a new record for IPO fundraising size.

BOC International’s research report initiates coverage of Momenta, setting a target price implying a doubling of current share price.

Specifically, the company is well positioned to capitalize on the global intelligent driving upgrade wave, thanks to its leadership in L2/L2++ ADAS, its scalable software-driven business model, and its credible roadmap toward L4 Robo-X solutions. The report highlights Momenta’s “one flywheel, two legs” strategy: Its L2/L2++ mass-production passenger vehicle business generates cash flow while simultaneously feeding OEM channel access and large-scale real-world driving data; meanwhile, its L4 Robo-X applications—including Robotaxi, Robovan, and broader embodied intelligence use cases—leverage the same core architecture. This creates synergies across model iteration, engineering reuse, and infrastructure efficiency. On earnings forecasts, BOC International projects revenues of RMB 4 billion, RMB 7 billion, and RMB 12.6 billion for 2026–2028, respectively. Applying a 15x P/S multiple to its 2027 revenue yields a target price of HK$520. Beyond quantitative modeling, the report also notes that accelerated Robovan commercialization could open the next leg of upside—potentially ahead of large-scale Robotaxi deployment—providing additional valuation support. Since its IPO, Momenta has drawn coverage from multiple institutions, with target prices rising progressively. On July 17, UBS initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating and a target price of HK$360, citing Momenta’s industry-leading OEM coverage, asset-light business model, and robust revenue growth—which together offer operating leverage to justify a premium P/S multiple. On August 17, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) issued its inaugural report, assigning an “Outperform” rating and a target price of HK$500. It emphasized that Momenta’s “million-vehicle data flywheel” constitutes its true moat—a narrative that directly ignited trading activity that day. With BOC International’s HK$520 target—the highest to date—the consensus target price range among these three sell-side firms has expanded from HK$360 to HK$520, reflecting growing institutional recognition of Momenta’s “physical AI platform” narrative.

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