After the sharp plunge in lithium mining stocks: analysis of medium- to short-term supply-demand dynamics, valuation, and core investment candidates for 2026

In Q1 2026, the company’s operating revenue was approximately RMB 1.376 billion, down year-on-year, while its net profit attributable to shareholders reached approximately RMB 508 million, up by about 277% year-on-year; non-recurring net profit was approximately RMB 482 million, and operating cash flow also improved significantly. The decline in revenue alongside a substantial rise in profit indicates that the improvement in profitability primarily stems from: ・Cost advantages from self-owned mines; ・Recovery in lithium product prices and price spreads; ・Optimization of product mix; ・Reduced losses from previously unprofitable businesses. This type of profit quality is generally superior to that of enterprises relying solely on externally purchased ore for processing. The company still faces risks including heavy capital expenditure for expansion, share dilution from private placements, ramp-up challenges for new production capacity, and rising depreciation expenses. Q1 profits cannot be simply annualized by multiplying by four—mining shipment schedules and product sales timing cause quarterly volatility. Stage-based assessment: ・RMB 54.5–58: First bottom observation zone; ・RMB 52–54: Next support level following breach of prior lows; ・RMB 48–51: Stress zone triggered if lithium prices fall below RMB 140,000/ton or if the industry re-prices oversupply. Upside trajectory: ・First rebound target: RMB 62–65; ・One- to two-month target: RMB 68–74; ・Base-case high over 6–12 months: RMB 75–85; ・Bullish scenario: RMB 95–105. ZK Resources more closely resembles a balanced candidate—'downside supported by cost floors, upside leveraged by output elasticity'—making it suitable as a core medium-term observation target. XIV. YAHUA Group: Civil explosives business provides floor support, offering relatively stronger defensive characteristics YAHUA Group adopts a dual-core business structure—lithium industry plus civil explosives industry. In 2025, the company’s operating revenue was approximately RMB 8.543 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 632 million; in Q1 2026, operating revenue was approximately RMB 2.83 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 339 million—evidencing clear earnings recovery. YAHUA’s key advantages include: ・Gradually enhanced ore supply security from overseas resources such as Kamativi; ・Large-scale lithium salt production capacity; ・Stable profit and cash flow contribution from civil explosives operations; ・Currently lower valuation relative to some popular lithium stocks. The civil explosives business means YAHUA is not purely exposed to lithium price beta. When lithium prices fall, it provides a certain buffer; however, when lithium prices surge, it also dilutes the company’s overall earnings elasticity and market valuation. Stage-based assessment: ・RMB 19–21.5: First support zone; ・RMB 17–18.5: Stress zone triggered if lithium prices fall below RMB 140,000/ton or during systemic market corrections; ・Below RMB 16: Typically requires materially worse-than-expected negative catalysts—e.g., lithium prices, resource project setbacks, or severe cash flow deterioration. Upside trajectory: ・Base-case high over 6–12 months: RMB 27–31; ・Bullish scenario: RMB 33–36. YAHUA is better suited for investors prioritizing controlled downside risk and moderate rebound potential—not those seeking maximum lithium price elasticity. XV. Ganfeng Lithium: High platform value, yet most complex variables Ganfeng Lithium is not merely a lithium mining company, but an integrated platform spanning global resources, lithium compounds, lithium batteries, and recycling. In Q1 2026, the company’s operating revenue was approximately RMB 9.196 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders approximately RMB 1.837 billion, non-recurring net profit approximately RMB 1.419 billion, and operating cash flow turned positive from negative. When analyzing Ganfeng, greater emphasis should be placed on non-recurring profit. A portion of its net profit attributable to shareholders includes fair-value gains and investment income, which cannot be directly annualized.

China’s Lithium Mining 'Dual Titans': A Comprehensive Head-to-Head Comparison (2025) | Exclusive

A new lithium mining cycle appears to be quietly unfolding. According to financial disclosures from China’s 'Lithium Mining Dual Titans'—Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ)—both achieved profitability reversal in 2025, reporting net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 463 million and RMB 1.613 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 105.85% and 177.77%. Yet further breakdown of other core operational metrics—including revenue and cash flow—reveals that the situation remains far from optimistic. For instance, Tianqi Lithium’s 2025 operating revenue declined by 20.80% year-on-year, and its revenue has now contracted for ten consecutive quarters. Its 2025 lithium product gross margin fell by 6.62 percentage points year-on-year to 25.59%, the lowest in four years. Although Ganfeng Lithium’s lithium business revenue grew in 2025, the increase was modest at only 7.16%, and its revenue scale amounted to just 37.23% of its peak level in 2022. Moreover, TTIR (24 Industry Research Institute) data shows that in 2025, Tianqi Lithium’s and Ganfeng Lithium’s cash-generating capability (net operating cash flow) declined by 46.69% and 42.94% year-on-year, respectively; their overseas revenues also dropped by 25.07% and 64.32% year-on-year. All this reflects the relentless force of industrial competition and cyclical dynamics. From a global supply-demand balance perspective, different institutions use varying methodologies to estimate 2025 lithium carbonate demand across domestic and international markets—leading to divergent forecasts—but taken together with year-on-year growth rates, the overall trend is becoming increasingly clear: In 2025, global lithium resource output grew by over 20% year-on-year, while demand growth exceeded 30% year-on-year—indicating a significant easing of supply surplus pressure. Looking ahead to 2026, the supply side will witness the final peak of concentrated capacity rollout in this cycle, with China and Africa remaining the primary drivers of output growth; meanwhile, some Australian mines may resume operations as lithium prices recover. With improving export conditions for African lithium resources, import volumes are also expected to rebound. On the demand side, growth will persist but become structurally fragmented: The power battery market—impacted by policy pacing both domestically and internationally—is expected to see slower growth, though technological advances and niche applications continue to provide underlying support; the energy storage market, having delivered unexpectedly strong growth in 2025, is poised to become the key engine of demand growth, propelled by sustained order momentum both domestically and overseas. As shown below is Antaike’s Global Resource Supply-Demand Balance Chart, forecasting that lithium fundamentals in 2026 will feature robust growth on both supply and demand sides, with a projected surplus of ~80,000 tonnes—narrowing significantly from prior years—and a definitive shift into deficit in 2027.

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