Why are Indonesian economists questioning the reliability of the latest 5.6% GDP growth figure?

Economists, including Mohammad Ikhsan and Teuku Riefky from the University of Indonesia, question the 5.6% GDP figure due to internal inconsistencies—specifically a 1% decline in electricity use alongside a 5% jump in manufacturing output, which they argue is physically implausible, and a 25-fold surge in inventory value they deem 'almost certainly [not] reflective of rational economic behavior'; they estimate a more realistic GDP growth rate is 4.6% to 4.9%.

What broader concerns do economists link to the disputed GDP data?

The skepticism over GDP data reflects wider unease among academics, technocrats, and finance professionals about the reliability of official statistics and policymaking under President Prabowo Subianto, citing actions such as his takeover of natural resource control, creation of a sovereign wealth fund (Danantara) reporting directly to him, removal of fiscally conservative officials, and his recent announcement that Danantara would assume control of commodity exports—all of which have eroded investor confidence and undermined institutional guardrails established since the Asian Financial Crisis.

Analysts Question Reliability of Indonesia’s Strong GDP Data

May 28, 2026

Economists dispute Indonesia's 5.6% GDP growth, citing data anomalies and concerns over President Prabowo's resource nationalism. Skepticism centers on manufacturing metrics and the government's planned takeover of commodity exports and nickel processing.

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