Market Capitalization Shrinks by $10 Billion Over Five Years; 'China's Lithium King' Loses Control of the World's Largest Lithium Brine Lake

From a massive RMB 7.9-billion net loss to a profit exceeding RMB 300 million—after the second-generation leadership took over, Tianqi Lithium appeared to have secured the winning cards for a turnaround. Yet what followed was not dawn, but dusk. A final ruling by Chile’s Supreme Court concluded an 18-month cross-border litigation—and once again thrust this 'China's Lithium King' into a vortex of strategic uncertainty. The world’s largest lithium brine lake, acquired at a cost of $4 billion, will now fall under the control of a Chilean state-owned enterprise. Compounded with a market capitalization erosion of over RMB 100 billion in recent years and the second-generation leadership’s failure to reverse the company’s downward trajectory, Tianqi Lithium’s path ahead is fraught with thorns. Behind this legal defeat lies a broader resurgence of resource nationalism across Latin America—a sobering cautionary tale for all Chinese enterprises expanding overseas. PART 01 V-Shaped Financial Recovery, with SQM as the Core Catalyst In January 2026, Tianqi Lithium released its preliminary 2025 annual earnings forecast, offering markets renewed hope for the lithium industry leader’s recovery. The announcement projected a 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 369–553 million, and a non-recurring net profit of RMB 240–360 million. By contrast, in 2024, the company posted a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.905 billion and a non-recurring net loss of RMB 7.923 billion—marking a striking V-shaped reversal within just one year. Against the backdrop of persistent volatility in lithium product prices and an industry-wide adjustment phase, SQM’s investment returns served as the cornerstone of this turnaround. SQM—the world’s second-largest lithium producer—controls the Atacama Salt Flat in Chile, which holds the world’s largest lithium reserves and boasts the lowest extraction costs. As SQM’s second-largest shareholder, Tianqi has long relied on it as a critical pillar of its financial performance. In 2022, investment income from SQM accounted for 23% of Tianqi’s annual net profit; that share surged to 40% in 2023. Even during the lithium market downturn in 2024, SQM’s contribution remained vital in stabilizing Tianqi’s bottom line—making it instrumental to the company’s return to profitability. Tianqi’s strategic investment in SQM originated in 2018, when it made an audacious overseas acquisition: paying $4.066 billion to acquire a 23.77% stake in SQM from Canadian fertilizer giant PotashCorp. This instantly elevated Tianqi to SQM’s second-largest shareholder. As of end-June 2025, Tianqi still held 22.16% of SQM’s shares. The core value of this investment lies in SQM’s control over the Atacama Salt Flat—the world’s largest lithium brine resource, located in Chile’s Atacama Desert, holding 1.08 million tons of lithium metal…

Tianqi Lithium: The 'Global Lithium King’s' Hidden Strengths Are Now Materializing

Greenbushes Mine in Western Australia, the Atacama Salt Flat in Chile, lithium chemical plants in Zhangjiagang (Jiangsu) and Shehong (Sichuan)—these geographic coordinates map out Tianqi Lithium’s global footprint. It does not manufacture batteries or electric vehicles; it operates exclusively at the upstream end of the industry, extracting and processing lithium—the 'white petroleum' of the new energy era. One out of every five tons of lithium concentrate globally originates from Tianqi’s Greenbushes Mine. Moreover, Tianqi holds approximately 22% of SQM—the world’s largest brine-based lithium producer. Tianqi is the only Chinese lithium company possessing both top-tier hard-rock lithium mines and premier brine resources worldwide. On July 14, 2026, Tianqi Lithium’s earnings preview sent shockwaves across the entire lithium battery sector: it forecasted a first-half 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.85–4.25 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 3,276%–4,935%; non-recurring net profit was projected at RMB 2.81–4.2 billion, with the highest growth rate exceeding 310,000%. Quarterly figures show Q1 net profit already reached RMB 1.876 billion, while Q2 is expected to range between RMB 974 million and RMB 2.374 billion. Thus, the first-half profit alone already exceeds Tianqi’s full-year 2025 net profit (RMB 458 million) by six- to nine-fold. As of early August 2026, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices had rebounded to around RMB 141,000 per ton, and lithium spodumene concentrate prices stood at approximately USD 2,060 per ton—up more than 70% from the 2025 low of RMB 80,000 per ton. Industry capacity rationalization is taking effect, and Tianqi’s low-cost advantage positions it among the biggest beneficiaries of this lithium price rebound. I. Why Is the Earnings Forecast Range So Wide? From RMB 2.85 billion to RMB 4.25 billion—a RMB 1.4-billion spread—stems primarily from one source: SQM, a veritable 'black box'. Tianqi’s profits consist of two major components: lithium concentrate profits from Greenbushes (relatively predictable) and equity investment gains from SQM (highly unpredictable). The SQM issue centers on timing: SQM releases its financial reports after Tianqi issues its earnings preview, forcing Tianqi to estimate blindly. These estimates rely heavily on external forecasts—specifically Bloomberg’s projected Q2 EPS for SQM, itself a range-based figure. Furthermore, SQM’s own quarterly earnings are highly volatile: average lithium prices in Q1 already reached ~USD 18/kg, and both volume and price are almost certain to rise further in Q2. Tianqi knows SQM earned substantially—but not precisely how much. That RMB 1.4-billion gap reflects nearly the entire 'blind-box' uncertainty surrounding SQM’s Q2 results. Given Q1’s realized RMB 1.876 billion and the clear Q2 volume-and-price uptrend, the most reasonable narrow-range estimate for first-half net profit attributable to shareholders falls around RMB 3.5–…

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