Goldman Sachs: A-Share Market’s Epic Revaluation Potential Revealed!

【Answer 1】 2. Japanese retail investors are aggressively establishing Swiss franc short positions to capture positive interest rate differentials, capitalizing on the stark yield gap created by the Swiss National Bank’s rate cut to zero and the Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary tightening. Their net short position in Swiss francs surged to ¥348.9 billion this month—the highest level since records began in 2008. Although this trade strategy aims to generate stable returns by selling negative-yielding Swiss francs and buying positive-yielding yen, the Swiss franc–yen exchange rate has unexpectedly appreciated nearly 10% year-to-date. This sharp currency move has largely erased the gains from the interest rate differential, leaving investors who initiated positions at the start of the year with significant unrealized losses. 3. Benefiting from Australia’s rare AAA sovereign credit rating, its bond market is attracting substantial safe-haven demand, pushing 2025 bond issuance to a record high for this time of year. Following credit downgrades in the U.S. and certain European countries, Australia’s status as a safe investment haven has become increasingly prominent. To date, total Australian dollar-denominated bond issuance—by governments, corporations, and foreign institutions—has reached A$282 billion for the year. Market participants expect full-year issuance to exceed last year’s A$322 billion. Robust demand stems not only from Asian investors increasing their allocations to AUD assets but also from Australia’s domestic pension savings pool exceeding A$4 trillion, as well as active participation by supranational institutions such as the World Bank—resulting in over one-quarter of this year’s AUD bond issuances carrying at least one AAA rating. Emerging/Frontier Markets 1. Mexico’s unemployment rate rose to 3.0% in September, up from 2.9% in August and slightly above market expectations—the highest since August 2024. The national number of unemployed persons reached 1.85 million, with male unemployment at 2.9% and female unemployment at 3.1%. Individuals aged 25–44 accounted for nearly half of all unemployed persons, making them the most affected demographic. Approximately 46.6% of the unemployed had been jobless for less than one month, indicating relatively high labor market fluidity. 2. Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports have declined from a two-and-a-half-year high, with the four-week average falling by about 70,000 barrels per day to 3.72 million barrels per day as of October 26. This short-term fluctuation likely stems not from sanctions but from strong winds at the Primorsk port in the Baltic Sea, which disrupted loading operations. Nevertheless, new U.S. sanctions targeting major Russian exporters—including Rosneft and Lukoil—are triggering ripple effects across markets. Key buyers such as India have begun reassessing procurement strategies and shifting purchases toward alternative sources like the Middle East. Tankers currently loading in the Baltic Sea will be unable to reach Asia before the November 21 sanctions effective date. Meanwhile, Russian domestic refineries—having completed repairs—are ramping up capacity, potentially diverting more crude oil to the domestic market and exerting further downward pressure on export volumes. Commodities & Energy Anglo American has issued a warning that its flagship Collahuasi copper mine in Chile—facing a series of setbacks—may produce less copper in 2026 than previously anticipated; the company is currently reassessing its production plan.

Copper Prices Hit New High Amid Weakening Global Copper Mine Supply Outlook: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Production Expectations, Output May See First Annual Decline Since 2017

【Answer 2】 Copper prices hit a new all-time high, with tightening supply-side expectations serving as a key driver of the rally. On September 8, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached an intraday high of $14,694 per ton—setting a new record—and closed at $14,673, rising 1.5% on the day. As copper prices breached previous highs, mining stocks rallied in tandem: Freeport-McMoRan surged over 7% intraday, extending its year-to-date gain to approximately 44%. More notably, global copper mine supply expectations are shifting. Morgan Stanley has downgraded its prior forecast for global mine supply growth to near-flat or even slightly negative. If realized, this would mark the first annual decline in global copper mine output since 2017. Meanwhile, Chile—the world’s largest copper producer—has lowered its full-year output forecast for the second consecutive quarter. Additionally, potential U.S. tariffs have triggered ‘front-running’ buying behavior, further exacerbating global inventory mismatches. Copper prices hit a new all-time high; Morgan Stanley downgrades global supply outlook Changes on the supply side are becoming a critical catalyst propelling copper prices beyond previous historical peaks. Chile—the world’s top copper producer—has seen persistent production pressure recently. Its Q2 copper output registered the weakest level in at least 19 years, and the country has lowered its full-year output forecast for the second quarter in a row, now expecting a 2.6% annual decline. Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley has reversed its earlier view of expanding global mine supply and revised its outlook to near-flat or modestly negative. If this forecast materializes, it would signify the first annual drop in global copper mine supply since 2017. Ruben Fernandes, Chief Operating Officer of Anglo American, also noted that supply will ultimately increase—but the crucial question lies in the pace at which incremental output comes online.

Anglo American posts 5% drop in Q3 copper output on Chile weather disruptions

Oct 19, 2026

Anglo American reported a 5% Q3 copper production drop to 174,900 tons due to Chilean weather, maintaining 2026 guidance. It also raised its full-year diamond outlook after reaching 21.7 million carats in the first nine months.

reuters

Anglo American posts 5% drop in Q3 copper output on Chile weather disruptions

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