U.S. crude oil inventories posted the largest weekly decline on record; foreign investors’ holdings of U.S. Treasury securities posted the steepest weekly drop in over three years.

【Answer 1】 1. U.S. crude oil inventories posted the largest weekly decline on record: According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Total U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 17.8 million barrels last week—the largest single-week decline ever recorded. Commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 7.9 million barrels, the largest decline since mid-February. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) declined by 9.9 million barrels—the largest single-week drawdown on record—and marked the eighth consecutive week of declines, the longest streak in three years. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, 42 million barrels of U.S. crude oil—10% of the total SPR—have been drawn down, primarily exported to Asia. The current SPR level stands at 374 million barrels, the lowest since July 2024, significantly weakening the U.S.’s buffer capacity against future supply shocks. America’s emergency petroleum reserve is depleting at a historically unprecedented pace. 2. Japan’s risk of foreign exchange intervention has risen again: The yen is trading near 159 against the U.S. dollar, approaching its lowest level since April 30—when Japan’s Ministry of Finance reportedly spent ¥10 trillion (approximately $63 billion) to support the yen. With both London and New York markets closed Monday for holidays, market liquidity will be thin; a break above 159.75 could trigger a new round of currency defense measures. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has reaffirmed her readiness to act, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled tacit approval of Tokyo’s currency defense efforts. Over the past three months, the yen has been the worst-performing currency among the G10, weighed down by the wide U.S.–Japan interest-rate differential, rising inflation concerns driven by oil prices, and anxieties over the Japanese Prime Minister’s spending plans. Unless the Bank of Japan undertakes aggressive rate hikes, the durability of any intervention will remain extremely limited. 3. Profits at China’s independent refineries have plunged to a historic low: Refining margins for imported crude oil at China’s independent refineries have collapsed to an all-time low of –¥1,866 per ton.

May 21 Oil & Gold Briefing | EIA inventories post record drop of 7.86 million barrels; Trump delays military strike while declaring 'the clock is ticking'. Gold and crude oil rise simultaneously—a rare occurrence.

【Answer 2】 This article contains AI-assisted content creation. Data are sourced from publicly available financial information; viewpoints have been manually curated and analyzed, and do not constitute investment advice. Data Summary: NYMEX Crude Oil: $99.26 (+$1.00, +1.02%) Brent Crude (Front Month): $105.81 (+$0.79, +0.75%) Shanghai Gold Futures (June 2026): ¥997.56 (+¥10.34, +1.05%) COMEX Gold: $4,546.5 (+$11.2, +0.25%) Gold–Oil Ratio: ~45.8 Logic Breakdown: Frankly speaking, tonight’s EIA report left me wide awake. Last night, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released data showing that, for the week ending May 15, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories plunged by 7.863 million barrels—far exceeding the market expectation of 2.94 million barrels—and marking the largest weekly draw since February 13. Even more astonishing was the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which plummeted by 9.92 million barrels to 374.2 million barrels—the lowest level since July 2024—and registered the largest single-week drawdown since August 1982. It was also the eighth consecutive weekly decline. In short, the dual drawdown of commercial inventories and strategic reserves signals that the U.S. is aggressively releasing oil—whether through sales or loans—rapidly depleting its strategic reserves. Surprisingly, gold and crude oil rose simultaneously today. Over the past two weeks, markets had largely followed either an ‘oil-up/gold-down’ or ‘both-down’ pattern—today’s divergence was exceptional. Shanghai gold surged 1.05% to ¥997, while COMEX gold rose 0.25% to $4,546; crude oil extended its gains by 1% to surpass $99, and Brent climbed toward $105. Perhaps this EIA report ignited two distinct bullish narratives simultaneously: ‘supply shortage’ (supporting oil) and ‘stagflation anxiety’ (supporting gold). The deeper the inventory drawdown, the stronger the evidence of robust real-economy energy demand—but higher oil prices also feed inflation, further delaying Fed rate-cut expectations. Markets thus find themselves torn between ‘physical scarcity’ and ‘monetary depreciation’, ultimately opting to bet on both. Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ strategy has entered a schizoid phase. On May 17, he declared on social media to Iran: ‘The clock is ticking—you’d better act fast, or you won’t exist anymore.’ Yet on May 18, he abruptly announced the suspension of the previously planned military strike against Iran, citing Iran’s submission of a new peace proposal and requests from Middle Eastern allies.

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