What is the potential impact on crude oil prices and the global economy if the Middle East conflict extends and disrupts supply through the Strait of Hormuz?

According to ICIS Chemical Analytics vice president Alex Lidback, in a worst-case scenario featuring an extended conflict and universal disruptions, crude oil prices could surge to $175–225 per barrel, triggering a global recession that lasts well into 2027.

How dependent is Asia on naphtha transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, and what are the regional distribution patterns?

Asia’s overall dependency on naphtha from the Strait of Hormuz stands at 60%, with 76% of the Middle East’s naphtha flows going to northeast Asia and another 23% to south and southeast Asia; over 45% of global naphtha trade was routed via the strait in 2025.

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May 27, 2026

ICIS experts at APIC 2026 warn that Middle East conflict disrupts Asian petrochemical feedstock supplies, potentially causing global recession or significant production contraction. The crisis highlights urgent needs for feedstock diversification and increased reliance on recycled alternatives.

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