The ultimate showdown? The contest for control of the Strait of Hormuz emerges.

Finally, intensifying U.S.-Europe rivalry has expanded Russia’s strategic space. Following disputes over defense spending burdens, tariffs, and Greenland’s sovereignty, differences have now surfaced between the U.S. and Europe over escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz—a development Russia welcomes. European analysts believe this ‘new rift’ will further turn U.S. aid to Ukraine into a bargaining chip. For Russia, a NATO increasingly fractured by trust deficits offers greater strategic flexibility in its future dealings with both the U.S. and Europe. (Reporters: Liu Pinran, Liu Zan, Song Ying) Global Outlook | Can Gulf Oil Shipments Bypass the Strait of Hormuz? According to maritime data analytics firm Windward, no vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on 14th—the first such day since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Prior to the conflict, the strait averaged 77 vessel transits per day. Amid persistent geopolitical tensions, international crude oil futures breached the $100-per-barrel mark again at the start of trading on 15th. Whenever regional tensions escalate or war breaks out, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is almost invariably disrupted or halted—triggering global oil price spikes. Given their abundant oil reserves, have Gulf states explored alternative export routes? As a critical maritime artery for global oil transport, is the Strait of Hormuz truly irreplaceable? Few Oil Pipelines Available Oil pipelines constitute the primary alternative to bypassing the Strait of Hormuz—but pipeline infrastructure in the region remains extremely limited, consisting mainly of two pipelines operated by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline runs westward from the Habshan oilfield—the country’s main petroleum production hub—to Fujairah Port on the Gulf of Oman. Commissioned in July 2012, the pipeline spans 420 kilometers: approximately 405 kilometers overland, plus a 13.6-kilometer subsea section linking the Persian Gulf directly to the Gulf of Oman—thus circumventing the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline was constructed during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Stretching over 1,200 kilometers, it originates in the Eastern Province’s Persian Gulf oilfields and terminates at Yanbu Port on the Red Sea. Amin Nasser, President and CEO of Saudi Aramco, recently stated that the company’s maximum sustainable daily production capacity stands at 12 million barrels, and it is maximizing utilization of the East-West Pipeline to maintain supply. The International Energy Agency estimates that, since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, more than one-quarter of crude oil and diesel normally shipped via the Strait of Hormuz continues to exit the Gulf—primarily via these two pipelines. According to energy analysts cited by CNBC, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz typically total around 20 million barrels per day. By comparison, Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline has a capacity of nearly 7 million barrels per day—but 2 million barrels are allocated to feed western domestic refineries, leaving only about 5 million barrels available for export. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline has a rated capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day. However, given heightened risks of military strikes against oil infrastructure, energy analysts estimate its current actual throughput conservatively at just over 70% of rated capacity. The Strait of Hormuz Is Irreplaceable The New York Times reported on 14th that bypassing the Strait of Hormuz would require many Gulf states to construct cross-border oil pipelines.

The Houthi movement ‘blocks’ the Red Sea; Saudi crude oil exports forced to reroute via Egypt.

The Houthis’ persistent threats against Red Sea shipping are compelling a passive restructuring of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil export routes. According to Xinhua News Agency, Yemen’s government stated on the 27th that the Houthis may ‘emulate Iran’ by seizing control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the other key international energy transit corridor in the Middle East—and that the Yemeni government has ‘prepared for possible escalation of conflict.’ The Houthis, meanwhile, asserted that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains open, and that their recently announced maritime blockade measures ‘apply solely to Saudi Arabia.’ Hours earlier, the Houthis announced they had deployed multiple drones to strike infrastructure within Saudi Arabia’s crude oil transportation network, in retaliation for ‘Saudi drone incursions into Yemeni airspace.’ Amid escalating security risks, Saudi Arabia is accelerating activation of an alternative crude export route via Egypt. According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, at least eight Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are en route to Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir, with arrivals expected over the coming weeks through mid-August. Concurrently, Saudi Aramco is increasing crude exports through this port and plans to leverage Egypt’s Sumed Pipeline—which links the Red Sea and Mediterranean—to enhance export flexibility. Additionally, Saudi Aramco is exploring a new pricing mechanism for crude oil shipped from Sidi Kerir to Asia, to reflect the increased transportation costs resulting from the rerouting. Multiple VLCCs Redirected to Egypt; South Korean Fleet Most Active Among the VLCCs currently heading to Sidi Kerir, five belong to South Korea’s Sinokor Group—constituting the majority. Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, Sinokor has been one of the most active VLCC operators in the Strait of Hormuz. Other vessels’ route adjustments are equally pronounced. The Marshall Islands-flagged VLCC Bidbid is en route to Sidi Kerir and is expected to load crude there before proceeding to Asia; VLCCs Bright and Taga have canceled their original voyages to the United States and redirected to Egypt. Taga, which had been operating almost exclusively on Japan-bound routes for several months, is among them.

Aramco Hunts for Fuel Supply in the Mediterranean After Attacks

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Saudi Aramco is sourcing replacement diesel and gasoline cargoes in the Mediterranean and Europe following Houthi attacks on its Red Sea refineries and pipelines. The oil giant has bid through Platts pricing windows to secure fuel amid disrupted crude flows.

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