A key Saudi oil pipeline was attacked and shut down; Saudi Aramco will fully suspend crude oil deliveries to Europe next month. The pipeline’s daily export capacity is 5 million barrels—what are the implications?

First, the conclusion: The '5 million barrels per day' cited in the question refers to the East-West Pipeline’s peak export capacity—not the actual volume Europe receives monthly under long-term contracts. For European refineries, what disappears is the October allocation under those long-term contracts; for the global crude market, this is a regional supply mismatch following the failure of the Red Sea contingency route—not a simultaneous global supply collapse. Let’s break this into three parts. First, the pipeline itself: On September 11, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy stated that the Riyadh and Medina sections of the East-West Pipeline were struck multiple times on the morning of September 10, prompting a precautionary shutdown. According to CCTV News’ September 20 report, the pipeline’s peak capacity is approximately 7 million barrels per day, of which about 5 million barrels are available for export. As of now, operations remain suspended. Stretching over 1,200 kilometers, the pipeline transports crude from eastern oilfields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu—bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. When the Strait of Hormuz became unreliable, this route was elevated to a lifeline; once severed, loading at Yanbu halted. Second, the notification to Europe: On September 18 (local time), informed sources revealed that Saudi Aramco had notified at least two European refiners that it would not deliver crude oil next month as stipulated under long-term contracts—a decision applicable to all European buyers. Saudi Aramco declined to comment. European refineries typically receive Saudi crude via Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir, a route dependent on Red Sea access. If the pipeline operates, Europe receives its cargo; if it shuts down, the October allocation for Europe becomes a complete void.

Europe cut off! Saudi crude redirected to Asia—tankers earning $8 million per day

Zero-Carbon Intelligence 【Europe Cut Off! Saudi Crude Redirected to Asia—Tankers Earning $8 Million Per Day】 After the critical oil pipeline came under attack, Saudi Arabia did not halt oil sales—but instead switched to a more dangerous and costly route, selling to Asian buyers. According to a recent Bloomberg report, Saudi Aramco—the state-owned oil company—has informed at least two European refineries that all crude deliveries for next month have been canceled, unilaterally terminating long-term supply agreements with Europe. European customers traditionally rely on long-term contracts to secure stable monthly supplies of Saudi crude. Prior to the pipeline shutdown, the pipeline transported roughly 7 million barrels of crude per day. Yet informed sources indicate no such deliveries will occur next month—and this decision applies to all European buyers. Saudi Aramco has declined to comment. The resulting gap in Saudi supply forces European buyers to seek far more expensive alternative sources. According to Italian news reports dated September 19, the Italian government plans to deploy up to four naval vessels to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to safeguard maritime passage. Following the pipeline damage and suspension of deliveries to Europe, Saudi Aramco shifted course—selling its flagship crudes—Arabian Light, Arabian Medium, and Arabian Heavy—to Asian countries via the Strait of Hormuz. Sources report that Saudi Aramco has already sold approximately 60 million barrels of crude, scheduled for ship-to-ship (STS) loading this month and next at Sohar Port in Oman. Chinese and South Korean refiners are the primary buyers of these spot cargoes, while additional volumes will head to India and Japan. Satellite data shows that over the past six days, Saudi Arabia’s average daily oil throughput via the Strait of Hormuz reached 2.9 million barrels—far exceeding August’s average of 700,000 barrels per day. Ship-to-ship crude transfers in the Gulf of Oman constitute a critical mechanism enabling Saudi Arabia to sustain exports: smaller vessels transport crude through the Strait of Hormuz, then transfer it to large tankers anchored outside the strait—thereby avoiding the risk of attacks on large tankers entering the Persian Gulf. According to CNBC’s reporting citing vessel-tracking data, such STS transfer volumes have surged from 1.5 million barrels per day in August to 2.7 million barrels per day currently.

Aramco to Supply Full Oil Volumes to European Customers Next Month

2 days ago

Saudi Aramco confirmed it will provide full crude oil allocations to European refiners in November after its pipeline resumed operations. This restores supply following an October disruption that forced buyers to seek alternative cargoes.

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