How would Zhihu's liberal community react to Argentina's current chaos?

What exactly is the 'chaos' in Argentina? Based on limited available information, the most直观 indicators are GDP growth rate and stock market performance. Logically, with hyperinflation reaching 100%, both the economy and the stock market should have already collapsed. Now consider Argentina’s stock market: Quoted below from Securities Times. Because November 20 is Argentina’s National Sovereignty Day, the stock market was closed. After reopening on Tuesday local time, Argentina’s stock market surged sharply, with gains peaking above 20%. As of press time, the Merval Index stood at 787,802 points—a rise of 19.57%. The day before, shares of Argentine companies listed in the U.S. also rose. Following Javier Milei’s electoral victory, he publicly stated his intention to enhance the value of state-owned energy firm YPF in preparation for its privatization. Consequently, YPF’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) soared 43%, marking the largest single-day gain since records began in 1993. Argentina’s two largest private banks—Banco Macro SA and Grupo Financiero Galicia SA—rose 20% and 17%, respectively. The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF posted a record-breaking 12% gain.

Argentina’s economic and financial past, present, and future

As of late November 2024, Argentina’s central government debt totaled USD 462.552 billion, while its foreign exchange reserves stood at only USD 3.09 billion; external debt accounts for approximately 62% of total central government debt. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is currently Argentina’s largest creditor, holding one-third of its external debt. By providing financial support, the IMF has postponed Argentina’s impending crisis. According to the IMF’s March 2025 report, Argentina faces USD 14 billion in external debt maturing in 2025, yet its central bank holds net foreign exchange reserves of negative USD 2.3 billion—placing the risk of sovereign default at an 'extremely high' level. Argentina’s financial sector remains fundamentally fragile. As a core component of Argentina’s economic system, the financial sector has recently been affected by multiple factors—including high inflation, mounting debt pressure, foreign exchange controls, and government reforms—resulting in a situation where 'localized growth coexists with systemic risks.' From a regulatory perspective, Argentina’s Central Bank (BCRA) oversees banks and non-bank financial institutions; the National Insurance Superintendency (SSN) regulates the insurance sector; and the National Securities Commission (CNV) supervises fund management companies and similar entities. Regarding banking institutions: Argentina’s banking sector forms the backbone of its financial industry, dominated by private banks and featuring both foreign banks (e.g., Spain’s Santander, UK’s HSBC) and domestic banks. Core activities include credit extension, foreign exchange trading, and payment settlement. As of June 2023, Argentina had 78 financial institutions—including banks and non-bank financial institutions—of which 13 were state-owned, 50 privately owned, and 15 non-bank financial institutions. Private banks dominate the sector, holding roughly 60% of all deposits and loans. The number of foreign banks is comparable to that of domestic banks, and their operations are predominantly conducted in U.S. dollars—highlighting Argentina’s high degree of financial dependence on external actors. As of August 2023, the Central Bank supervised 63 banks and 14 financial companies. Regarding the insurance sector: Argentina’s insurance industry originated in the latter half of the 19th century, initially led by British capital. Domestic firms gradually rose to prominence during the 20th century, yet the sector remains relatively small—its size as a share of GDP falls below the Latin American regional average—and its business is concentrated in life insurance, auto insurance, and agricultural insurance. The sector is centrally regulated by the National Insurance Superintendency. As of June 2023, the Superintendency oversaw 192 insurance companies and 15 reinsurance companies. According to the National Insurance Superintendency’s report, purchases of life insurance policies increased by 20% year-on-year in 2022. Yet only 9% of Argentinians purchase life insurance—meaning just one in ten citizens does so. Life insurance premiums amount to only 0.6% of Argentina’s GDP and represent 15% of total insurance premiums. Regarding the stock market: Argentina’s securities industry centers on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (BASE), where listed firms are predominantly in energy, agriculture, and finance (e.g., YPF, Bunge Argentina). However, the market remains small and suffers from low liquidity. As of 2023, Argentina hosted approximately 100 securities firms—including brokers, investment banks, and asset management companies—about 20% of which were foreign-owned (e.g., JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs).

Argentina's Stock Rally Limited to Oil Companies

18 hours ago

Argentina's stock market rally concentrates on the energy sector, driven by high oil prices and increased shale production in Vaca Muerta, while other industries stagnate. Major producers like YPF and Vista Energy report strong gains, boosting the nation's trade balance.

bloomberg

2026-09-30

Argentina's Stock Rally Limited to Oil Companies

Argentina's Stock Rally Limited to Oil Companies

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