Bearish! An opportunity is coming!

My assessment is the same: this round is not about war mobilization—it’s about post-war management. Trump himself has said he hopes the war is nearing its end and even claimed Iran is eager to negotiate. What truly worries him is the November 3 midterm elections: oil prices above $100 per barrel, gasoline above $4 per gallon, and diesel still at historic highs. These numbers weigh on his electoral prospects far more directly than the Strait of Hormuz ever could. Put simply, the meeting isn’t aimed at Iran—it’s about drawing clear lines of responsibility for Gulf monarchies. The U.S. can continue stationing troops, providing intelligence and air defense—but it won’t intervene without limits. Whoever gets hit by the Houthis must fend for themselves; whoever wants a share of post-war benefits must first secure oil routes and the strait. Israel may participate, but the U.S. will likely restrain it—preventing it from upending the entire table. After all, the ‘Trumpster’ is now in real peril—because he’s likely to lose the midterms. If you found this analysis insightful, please follow the WeChat public account (pronounced ‘zhòng’, fourth tone) TopView for more in-depth articles. Reply ‘books’ in the backend to receive over one hundred investment-related e-books in various formats. (Pls like!!) …… Polymarket recently priced the Democrats’ chances of winning the House at 89%, the Senate at 59%, and sweeping both chambers at 60%. A few days ago, those figures were 88% for the House and 54% for the Senate—the Senate number is still climbing. In my view, the 89% probability for the House is already nearly treated by the market as a foregone conclusion. Republicans currently hold only a narrow majority there, and the electoral map is highly unfavorable. The real drama lies in the Senate’s 59%—where the current split is 53–47, with 35 seats up for grabs. Democrats need to flip four seats net—including in Alaska, Texas, and Ohio, states where Trump won by over 10 percentage points last time. Though 59% looks like a lead, it really hinges on just one or two states swinging back and forth. What’s most noteworthy isn’t any single figure—but the 60% probability assigned to a full sweep. This treats simultaneous Democratic control of both chambers as a single event. Some have dug into history and noted that when sweep probabilities reach this level, stock market pullbacks during election years become more likely—since uncertainty rises. I don’t fully buy that, but it does signal markets are treating November 3 as a risk event. My take on the midterms: the House outcome is virtually certain; the Senate remains highly uncertain. Those swing races aren’t locked in by oil prices or polling momentum alone—the final six weeks will hinge on candidates and unforeseen events. Right now, the most critical factor—by far—is oil prices, and behind oil prices lies the U.S.–Iran conflict.

Goldman Sachs charts: 'Gasoline prices determine U.S. midterms'! Prediction markets show '65% chance of Democratic sweep of both chambers'!

With just 26 days remaining until the U.S. midterm elections, Goldman Sachs’ Washington Political Team released its latest 'U.S. Election Monitor: October 8 Update', revealing a picture investors can no longer ignore: prediction markets now assign a 65% probability to Democrats sweeping both the Senate and the House—while the odds of Republicans retaining a House majority have fallen below 10%. Even more crucially, Goldman Sachs directly links the Democrats’ growing electoral advantage to U.S. retail gasoline prices: after rising from roughly $3 per gallon at the start of 2026 to nearly $5 in spring, then falling to around $4 in summer before climbing again, Democratic leads in generic ballot polls expanded from about 5 percentage points to nearly 9—mirroring the gasoline price curve almost exactly. This is not merely a political contest—it’s a portfolio risk signal. Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett explicitly warns that a Democratic sweep would trigger 'major risk aversion', leading to equity market declines exceeding 10%, a weaker U.S. dollar, and falling bond yields. Just one month ago, the sweep probability stood at 52%—a true coin toss; today, it has become the baseline scenario. Meanwhile, oil-price shocks stemming from the Iran conflict, Hurricane Isaias shutting down 63% of offshore oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, and the Republican Party’s belated surge in campaign funding collectively constitute the core variables shaping the final 26 days of this election. Gasoline Prices and Votes: Goldman Sachs’ Most Critical Chart

As Winter Nears, Heating Oil Emerges as Hurdle for Republicans in US Senate Races

1 day ago

Rising heating oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions influence US Senate races, with voters blaming administration policies. The Energy Department released reserves, though analysts doubt this will significantly lower costs currently exceeding $6 per gallon.

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As Winter Nears, Heating Oil Emerges as Hurdle for Republicans in US Senate Races

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