Implications for China from the U.S. adjustment of its critical minerals strategy

On June 4, 2019, to enhance economic and national security, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals (hereinafter referred to as the 'Critical Minerals Strategy'). The Critical Minerals Strategy focuses on ensuring secure and reliable supplies of critical minerals, aiming to reverse the United States’ heavy reliance on foreign sources for such minerals, promote American prosperity, and uphold peace through strength—aligning with broader U.S. national security and defense strategies. Like the U.S. energy independence strategy, the Critical Minerals Strategy lays out a blueprint for reestablishing America as a global leader in the critical minerals industry. ・1.1 The Critical Minerals Strategy continues a series of Trump-era policies on critical minerals ・On July 21, 2017, President Trump signed Executive Order No. 13806, 'Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency,' emphasizing that America’s manufacturing and defense industrial base underpins economic prosperity and global competitiveness, and equips the armed forces to defend the nation. On December 19, 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) issued Professional Paper No. 1802, titled 'Critical Minerals in the United States,' listing 23 minerals vital to U.S. national security and economic well-being—the first update to such a USGS report in 44 years. On December 20, 2017, President Trump signed Executive Order No. 13817, 'A Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals.' On May 18, 2018, after consultation with other federal agencies and review of public comments, the U.S. Department of the Interior published a list of 35 critical minerals. On June 4, 2019, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the report 'Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals.' ・1.2 The Critical Minerals Strategy reflects U.S. concerns over future stability of critical mineral supply The report states: 'Prolonged export cessation by China or Russia to the United States and its allies—similar to China’s 2010 rare earth export restrictions—could severely disrupt critical mineral supply chains both domestically and abroad.' In reality, however, China remains committed to meeting the legitimate global demand for rare earth resources; it has neither banned nor curtailed rare earth exports—in fact, exports have increased. According to the latest customs statistics, China exported 431 tons of rare-earth magnets to the United States in May 2019—a 20% increase month-on-month, reaching the highest level since 2016. Clearly, the U.S. intent is transparent: leveraging rare earths as a pretext to amplify the so-called 'China threat.' Moreover, the significant involvement of the U.S. Department of Defense in strategic initiatives indicates not only that the military is a major consumer of critical minerals but also that the Trump administration sought to project military strength indirectly—enhancing technological and equipment advantages for the armed forces to sustain America’s dominant global military presence and deterrent capability. ・1.3 The strategy demonstrates America’s nationwide commitment to securing reliable critical mineral supplies In terms of participating departments and agencies, the strategy reflects an all-of-government effort. Nine of the fifteen U.S. executive departments—including Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Homeland Security, Labor, State, and the Interior—participated in formulating the Critical Minerals Strategy. Additionally, over a dozen agencies were involved, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Industry and Security, the Bureau of Land Management, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, the Critical Materials Institute, the Environmental Protection Agency, the International Trade Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Geological Survey.

Views on several high-profile events early this year—including the establishment of the U.S.-led Critical Minerals Alliance

Time flies—before we know it, the Year of the Horse is drawing to a close. Looking back at the first two months of 2026, the international situation has grown increasingly turbulent. On January 28, Australia’s Prime Minister publicly announced plans to fully nationalize Darwin Port. On January 29, Panama’s Supreme Court ruled to revoke Hutchison Ports’ (a Hong Kong-based company) operating rights at the Panama Canal. On February 17, Peru’s president—just four months into office—was impeached and removed from power, placing Chinese enterprises’ operations at Chancay Port at risk of expulsion. Earlier still, on January 3, the United States launched a military operation against Venezuela, deploying Delta Force special operators to apprehend Venezuela’s president and seize 50 million barrels of crude oil. According to unverified information from Xueqiu.com, the U.S. intends to sell this oil and use the proceeds exclusively to purchase American-made goods. On January 14, the U.S. Navy dispatched a carrier strike group to the Middle East, threatening military action against Iran. Entering February, the U.S. first announced its $12-billion 'Treasury Reserve Program' to stockpile critical minerals; then convened the inaugural Ministerial Meeting of the 'Critical Minerals Alliance' in Washington, D.C., bringing together over 50 countries—including resource-rich nations, technology-and-capital-rich nations, and major consuming nations—to reshape the global critical minerals supply chain. When viewed collectively, these events reveal an emerging pattern: the United States is attempting—by any means necessary, including military force—to seize control over global supply and value chains. It pursues this goal via two parallel pathways: first, dominating key trade corridors to gain control over supply chains; second, controlling upstream 'industrial grain'—i.e., critical minerals—to achieve dominance over supply chains. If the online reports about the U.S. action in Venezuela are accurate, then beyond the 'innovative' use of military force to seize 50 million barrels of oil, the approach closely mirrors proposals I outlined in my internal 2023 Hongyuan Academy discussion paper (see my Bilibili article, 'Coordinating Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and Reserve Policy to Achieve China’s Supply-Demand Rebalancing') and subsequent academic work. In 2024, I attempted to launch a startup overseas but had to suspend it due to family reasons. For the past year and a half, I’ve paid relatively little attention to macroeconomic developments and U.S.-China strategic competition—making the sheer volume of unexpected events this January all the more startling. To better understand these developments, I downloaded over 200 academic papers on critical minerals and reviewed recent scholarly progress. These papers confirm that the U.S.-initiated 'Critical Minerals Alliance' is not a novel initiative but rather an upgraded version of the 'Minerals Security Partnership' (MSP), established as early as 2022 (though vigilance remains warranted). Meanwhile, since 2022, Chinese academia has systematically studied critical minerals strategies across the United States, the European Union, Japan, Central Asia, Russia, Australia, Latin America, and Africa—and based on those studies, proposed numerous policy recommendations, including intensifying domestic exploration for new mineral deposits, establishing strategic reserves of critical minerals, advancing resource recycling technologies, and actively pursuing 'mineral diplomacy.'

AT4 Completes Del Sol Refinery Acquisition, Advances US Critical Minerals Strategy

1 day ago

American Tungsten and Antimony (AT4) has finalized its acquisition of Nexus Metals and the Del Sol hydrometallurgical refinery in Nevada. This move establishes an operational US refinery for high-purity antimony and tungsten production, advancing its mine-to-metal strategy.

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