LNG demand may surge by 60%! What preparations should China’s ‘Big Three’ oil companies make?

In 2023, the United States exported 91.2 million tons of LNG, surpassing Qatar and Australia to become the world’s top LNG exporter for the first time. This achievement stemmed from a production boom driven by the shale gas revolution and surging European demand for liquefied natural gas. U.S. LNG tankers crossed the Atlantic to fill Europe’s annual natural gas shortfall of 26 million tons—accounting for 46% of its total LNG imports. However, according to a Shell report, the U.S. leadership faced a 'chill' in 2024—its LNG export growth slowed to the lowest level in a decade, due to Middle Eastern countries’ dominance in long-term supply contracts and U.S. export restriction policies. In January 2024, the U.S. government suspended new LNG export licenses to countries without free trade agreements, citing the need to 'address the climate crisis.' This move sent shockwaves across the industry: major energy firms—including Chevron and ExxonMobil—criticized the policy as undermining energy transition efforts; the European Union and Japan jointly urged the U.S. to rescind the ban, expressing concerns over global LNG supply-chain stability. Shell estimated that if the policy remains in place, the U.S. could forfeit roughly 90 million tons per year of potential export capacity—equivalent to 70% of Qatar’s current output. Ironically, in 2025 the U.S. reversed the ban: the Department of Energy announced it would accelerate licensing procedures while retaining environmental impact reviews. Such policy reversals expose an inherent contradiction in U.S. energy strategy—balancing domestic decarbonization goals against the economic benefits derived from energy exports. The global LNG energy map is being reshaped. U.S. LNG expansion is transforming global energy trade patterns. Shell forecasts that by 2030, the U.S. and Qatar together will control 60% of global LNG supply—a 'dual-hegemony' structure with profound implications for Asia and Europe. In the Asian market, China—the world’s largest LNG importer—sourced only 5.4% of its LNG imports from the U.S. in 2024. Amid trade tensions, China has shifted procurement toward Australia, Qatar, and expanded pipeline-gas cooperation with Russia. In March 2025, Woodside Energy of Australia signed a 15-year LNG supply agreement with China Resources Gas. India is accelerating natural gas infrastructure development, aiming to raise natural gas’s share in its energy mix to 15% by 2030. Meanwhile, Alaska is seeking Asian investors for its $44-billion LNG project. In Europe, U.S. LNG has become a 'lifeline' for energy security—but high import prices have exacerbated inflationary pressures. Data show that in 2023, the average price of U.S. LNG imported into Europe was 40% higher than Russian pipeline gas. The U.S.’s 'dominant' LNG role also harbors risks. Shell warns that if global natural gas demand growth falls short of expectations, the U.S. may face overcapacity. In 2024, global LNG trade volume grew by only 2 million tons—the slowest pace in a decade—while LNG projects under construction total 170 million tons per year. Moreover, falling renewable energy costs are eroding LNG’s competitiveness: South Korea has already achieved lower electricity generation costs from renewables than from imported natural gas. At this juncture in 2025, the global LNG landscape is in flux. As cautioned in Shell’s report: 'America’s LNG hegemony is both an opportunity—and a gamble.'

China has halted imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas for over 70 days—can natural gas become a 'casualty' in the trade war? You heard it right! China has not purchased a single drop of LNG from the United States for more than 70 days—the longest such 'cold war' in five years. This development has sent shockwaves through global energy markets and escalated Sino-U.S. tensions to a new peak. So why has China said 'goodbye' to U.S. natural gas? China has removed the U.S. from its procurement list and instead 'partnered up' with Australia and Qatar. In March, Australia’s Woodside Energy signed a 15-year 'major deal' with China Resources Gas, committing to deliver 6 million tons of LNG annually starting in 2027. And that’s not all: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) inked a 20-year agreement with QatarEnergy in Doha, securing 4 million tons of LNG annually beginning in 2026. This strategic shift has bolstered China’s confidence: Australia alone accounts for 40% of China’s LNG imports, firmly holding the title of 'top supplier.' Domestically, increased natural gas production has become the 'backbone' supporting China’s energy supply.

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Woodside Energy signed a 20-year LNG supply deal with QatarEnergy to mitigate Middle East supply risks using its $17.5 billion Louisiana facility, targeting 3 mtpa capacity from Train 2. The agreement secures long-term sales for Woodside while providing QatarEnergy an alternative source amid regional conflicts.

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