Global central banks have entered a密集 period of monetary policy meetings; what challenges are economies worldwide facing?

● U.S. Dollar Index: Amid broad market consensus that the Federal Reserve’s October interest rate decision will likely hold steady, market focus is centered on nuanced guidance from the Fed’s press conference regarding its future policy path, as well as the stickiness of the PCE inflation data. Meanwhile, the relative strength or weakness of major non-U.S. currencies will continue to serve as an exogenous factor shaping USD exchange rate pricing. ● Major non-USD currencies: Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision, markets are closely assessing the sustainability of the inflation trend and its implications for the pace of future monetary policy normalization. In the eurozone, markets continue digesting regional fiscal pressures alongside the European Central Bank’s latest assessment of inflation and growth prospects. 2. Analysis of FX Futures and Options Trends Key FX Futures Contract Trends (Chart) Futures Position Analysis According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report dated October 13, 2026, net positioning changes across major currencies last week were as follows: EUR net longs increased by 828 contracts; AUD net longs rose by 2,732 contracts; GBP net shorts widened by 8 contracts; JPY net longs grew by 1,061 contracts; CAD net shorts expanded by 2,997 contracts; NZD net shorts widened by 68 contracts. Among these, JPY was the only currency exhibiting a net reversal in overall positioning. No currency registered a unidirectional total position change exceeding 20%. Outlook for Key Currency Pairs Recent USD/CAD Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals Analysis USD/CAD declined last week to around 1.401—its relatively low level since late September—with CAD demonstrating notable resilience among G10 currencies. The primary driver stems from a rapid market repricing of expectations for the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) interest rate decision: following Governor Tiff Macklem’s signals indicating an upward revision to inflation expectations, overnight index swap (OIS) markets priced in a roughly 81% probability of a 25-basis-point hike (to 2.50%) in October—up sharply from about 30% previously. If implemented, this would mark the BOC’s first tightening move in a year. A recent survey of 34 economists found 19 now anticipate a rate increase this week, with many also forecasting a further rise to 2.75% before Q1 2027—marking a clear departure from earlier baseline expectations of a hold. This shift in policy expectations reflects divergent macroeconomic assessments: ● Pro-tightening view: Recent survey data show rising long-term consumer inflation expectations, and micro-level sensitivity to price pressures is intensifying. Even amid signs of softening in certain hard indicators—including labor market metrics and retail sales—the central bank may still prioritize front-loading action against the risk of broad-based inflation expectation de-anchoring. ● Cautious view: Recent price increases have been largely driven by specific components—especially energy—and overall price breadth remains narrow. Evidence of energy cost pass-through into core inflation remains inconclusive, while structural softness in the labor market raises questions about the necessity and appropriateness of overly rapid tightening. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil continues trading above USD 114 per barrel—providing fundamental support to the commodity-linked CAD via the terms-of-trade channel, yet simultaneously complicating the central bank’s policy calculus through imported inflationary pressures. Given that a single rate hike has already been largely priced in, market attention for this meeting will center instead on the accompanying Monetary Policy Report and forward guidance details: Should the report significantly upgrade medium-term inflation risk assessments—or maintain openness toward further tightening—the CAD’s embedded interest-rate differential premium could gain more durable pricing support. Conversely, if communication emphasizes ‘prudent observation’ following a one-off move, the extent to which the exchange rate unwinds previously priced-in yield advantages may become the dominant driver.

ATFX Midday Review, October 28: RBNZ holds rates steady; BoC still expected to hike.

According to its policy statement, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains concerned about underlying high inflation—but judges current economic conditions insufficient to warrant another round of rate hikes. We speculate that international crude oil prices have remained relatively elevated over the past period without surging further, thereby tempering the RBNZ’s expectations of additional inflationary pressure. Figure 1: New Zealand Core Inflation Rate and Interest Rate Curve Overlay — ATFX So far this year, the RBNZ has raised rates twice, lifting its benchmark rate from 2.25% to 2.75%, with the explicit aim of curbing latent inflationary pressures. The blue line in the chart represents the core inflation rate, which has fluctuated near 3.2% since Q2 2025, dipping as low as 3.1%. Although this remains above the 2% target for moderate inflation, it shows no signs of upward acceleration—reducing the urgency for further hikes. Figure 2: NZD/USD Hourly Chart — ATFX Following the RBNZ’s decision announcement, the NZD/USD plunged sharply on an hourly basis—indicating that market participants interpreted the outcome as bearish for the New Zealand dollar. Technically, the Ichimoku Cloud displays a downward-sloping configuration; the lagging span lies below the candlesticks; and the base line and conversion line have formed a death cross—all consistent with the 'Three-Line Strike' bearish signal, pointing to further downside. At 21:45 ET today, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its interest rate decision, with mainstream expectations calling for a 25-basis-point hike to 2.5%, given Canada’s own exposure to latent inflationary pressures. At 22:30 ET, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Market participants will closely monitor their remarks on inflation, trade policy, and the future trajectory of interest rates. Figure 3: Canadian Interest Rate Curve and Core Inflation Rate Curve — ATFX

Bank of Canada Hikes Interest Rates to 2.5%, Signals Potential Further Increases

Oct 28, 2026

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate to 2.5% to counter inflation driven by rising energy prices, forecasting persistent input cost pressures and a delayed return to targets until 2028.

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