What is the Bank of England's expected interest rate path through mid-2027, according to the Reuters poll?

According to the Reuters poll, all 65 economists expect the Bank of England to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 17 and for the rest of 2024; nearly 90% (57 of 65) expect rates to remain unchanged through at least mid-2027, with the median forecast pointing to the first rate cut — a quarter-point reduction — occurring in the third quarter of 2027, later than previously predicted in the August poll.

Why are economists increasingly confident that the BoE will not raise rates in 2024 despite rising global energy prices?

Economists are increasingly confident because, although higher energy prices from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran have delayed potential rate cuts until late 2025, there is so far no evidence of those costs feeding into broader inflation — inflation remains at 2.9%, below the 2% target but without signs of 'second-round effects' such as wage-price spirals; as HSBC’s Elizabeth Martins noted, the BoE has said it would consider a rate rise only if such effects appeared, and 'so far, that's not the case', while Santander’s Gabriella Willis added there are 'no flashing warning signs' for the Bank.

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Bank of England to Hold Rates, Show Patience with War-Driven Inflation: Reuters Poll

Sep 8, 2026

The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at 3.75% through mid-2027 due to inflation risks linked to war-driven energy prices. Economists forecast Brent crude near $100/barrel, potentially delaying rate cuts until late next year.

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