Reflections Triggered by the 'Century-Grade Gold Heist': When Will the Conflict of Interests Between Africa’s Second-Largest Gold Producer and the World’s Second-Largest Gold Miner Finally End?

A military helicopter suddenly landed at a mining site. A group of heavily armed militants rushed out—without any prior communication—and swiftly overpowered the mine’s security forces. Highly trained and laser-focused on their objective, they stormed the warehouse and hauled box after box of gold into the helicopter. Mine managers stood frozen in disbelief; when they finally regained their composure, they did not call local police—because the perpetrators of this ‘robbery’ were the government itself! This incident occurred on January 12, 2025, at a gold mine operated by Barrick Gold Corporation in the Republic of Mali. Let’s now trace the origins and evolution of this so-called ‘Century-Grade Gold Heist’! First, some background for our readers: The country we’re discussing—Mali—is officially the ‘Republic of Mali’, a landlocked nation in West Africa’s interior, with absolutely no relation to Somalia. Mali covers approximately 1.24 million square kilometers—roughly one-eighth the land area of China, or comparable in size to Tibet—making it the second-largest country in West Africa, surpassed only by its neighbor Niger. With a population of about 20 million, Mali’s population is roughly equivalent to that of Chengdu City. Its name derives from the historic Mali Empire; in the Mandingo language, ‘Mali’ originally meant ‘hippopotamus’, later evolving to signify ‘the king’s residence’. Notably, Mali’s national flag features three vertical stripes—green, yellow, and red—with the yellow stripe symbolizing gold, underscoring gold’s profound significance to the nation. Mali’s economy is heavily dependent on mining, which accounts for roughly one-quarter of national income. Gold is its top export commodity: in 2020, Mali produced approximately 71.2 tons of gold, valued at around USD 3.71 billion—representing a staggering 80% of total export revenue. Yet Mali’s economic development has remained sluggish. In 2024, Mali’s GDP stood at roughly USD 22 billion, with per capita GDP at approximately USD 899—far below Africa’s average of USD 2,955—and ranking 13th from the bottom among African nations, just two places above Somalia. Beyond economic stagnation, Mali grapples with acute ethnic tensions and inherited colonial-era border irregularities—factors contributing to its third defining trait: political instability. Indeed, Mali has experienced three major coups within the past decade. Having sketched this backdrop, let us now introduce the story’s central protagonist: Barrick Gold Corporation. Founded in 1980, Barrick initially focused on oil and gas before pivoting exclusively to gold in 1983 and listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Over its 40-year history, Barrick once ranked as the world’s largest gold producer, achieving peak annual output of 238.56 tons in 2012. Though recently overtaken by Newmont Corporation (a detailed account of which lies beyond our scope), Barrick remains Africa’s largest gold producer—a testament to its enduring scale and strength. Today, Barrick operates 15 gold mines across Africa and the Middle East, Latin America, the Asia-Pacific region, and North America. Although Mali produces gold, it lacks the technological capacity and financial resources to refine it independently. Consequently, the Malian government has had no choice but to invite foreign capital to jointly develop its gold mines. With its robust funding, advanced technology, and proven expertise, Barrick became the natural partner for Mali’s gold-mining ventures.

Gold Has Risen Again to USD 4,400—Yet Why Can’t Investors Hold onto Resource Stocks?

Recently, we spoke with an FOF fund manager whose investment approach strongly resembles Bridgewater Associates’. He divided his gold allocation into strategic core holdings and tactical positions—an insightful framework well worth reviewing. (Click to read: Revisiting the FOF Fund Manager Whose Strategy Strongly Resembles Bridgewater’s: Core Allocation Unchanged, Iteration Continues) II. Gold Prices Stabilize—But Gold Stocks Ride a Rollercoaster Now let’s turn to gold equities. At the outset of this rally, gold stocks performed exceptionally strongly. On August 10, COMEX gold reclaimed the USD 4,400/oz level: the Gold ETF (518800) rose 1.3%, while the Gold Equity ETF (517400) surged 3.08%. But the very next day, things took a sharp turn. On August 11, gold prices remained firmly anchored near USD 4,400—but A-share gold stocks plunged collectively. Zijin Mining fell over 6%; Shandong Gold dropped more than 4%; and the Gold Equity ETF (159562) tumbled 5.3% that day. This divergence in price action was indeed striking. The most straightforward explanation, of course, is that the prior rally had simply been too rapid. Between August 4 and 10, certain gold equity ETFs surged over 15% in just five trading days. When gains accumulate quickly, investors naturally seek to lock in profits. Yet once prices rise, markets inevitably begin scrutinizing company fundamentals. Barrick Gold’s recent earnings report serves as a textbook example. In Q2, Barrick’s realized gold sales price rose 34% year-on-year to USD 4,417/oz. Yet同期, gold production remained virtually flat, while gold sales costs jumped 20% YoY—and all-in sustaining costs rose 11%. Following the release of these results, Barrick’s stock briefly plunged 8%. Thus, gold equity rallies typically begin by riding the tailwind of rising gold prices—but once elevated, investors shift focus to operational details: production volumes, cost structures, and mine quality—all of which ultimately influence valuation. Barrick’s plan to spin off its North American gold assets via IPO further illustrates another layer of valuation complexity. Only after resolving a protracted dispute with Newmont over the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture—their core collaborative platform—did Newmont agree to greenlight Barrick’s North American IPO. As part of the settlement, Newmont paid Barrick USD 1.95 billion and contributed additional mining projects to the JV. The assets slated for IPO represent Barrick’s highest-quality North American gold portfolio. The rationale behind the spin-off is transparent: markets may assign higher valuations to these geographically lower-risk, higher-grade assets. Whether investors will embrace this strategy, however, remains an open question. III. Base Metals Had Their Moment—So Why the Sharp Reversal? Let’s also glance sideways at base metals. From a macro perspective, base metals—like gold—stand to benefit from waning expectations of further Fed rate hikes. Yet recently, the sentiment surrounding base metals has arguably soured even more than that for gold equities. Whenever overseas copper, oil, or resource stocks rally, A-share markets invariably open higher the following day—only to reverse sharply downward shortly thereafter. This ‘elevator effect’—opening high, then falling steadily—has become markedly more frequent for copper and aluminum stocks. Today, the nonferrous metals sector opened down roughly 2%, with losses accelerating into the afternoon; net fund outflows from the basic metals segment exceeded RMB 11.8 billion.

Barrick Mining Files for IPO of North American Business in New York

21 hours ago

Barrick Mining filed for an IPO of its North American gold mining business on the New York Stock Exchange, with Goldman Sachs leading underwriters. The proposed separation aims to list American Barrick Gold under symbol ABGC by early next year.

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Barrick Mining Files for IPO of North American Business in New York

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