What price range for oil does Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predict after the Iran conflict ends, and what is his reasoning?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts oil prices could fall to as low as $40 a barrel post-Iran conflict, citing an expected oversupply in the oil market due to 'so much coming online.' He stated, 'We’re going to be very much oversupplied in the oil market after this. We can see $50, $40 crude maybe, just because there’s so much coming online.'

How does Bessent link oil prices to US bond yields and inflation, and what outcome does he foresee once the Iran conflict ends?

Bessent asserts that interest rates have 'the highest correlation they’ve ever had to the oil price,' and that the Iran conflict’s resolution will cause both interest rates and the 'spike in headline inflation' to decline. He said, 'The Iran conflict will end, interest rates and the spike in headline inflation will come down.'

Bessent Predicts Oil Prices Could Fall to $40 Post-Iran War, Lower Yields

Sep 4, 2026

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent forecasts oil prices may drop to $40 per barrel following the Iran conflict due to anticipated oversupply. He noted this decline would help reduce inflation and lower benchmark bond yields.

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