The excess profits generated by the war have once again made major oil companies a target of public criticism.

Paraskova pointed out that major oil companies are expected to post unexpected profits in the second quarter, with ExxonMobil and Chevron’s earnings projected to more than triple, driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that sent crude oil prices soaring and boosted refining margins. Although industry insiders note that retail gasoline prices lag behind declines in crude oil prices, this surge in profits is intensifying political pressure: President Trump has demanded gasoline prices drop to $2.25–$2.50 per gallon and launched an investigation into price manipulation. Oil companies counter that markets are cyclical, attributing the current rise in gasoline prices primarily to low fuel inventories, improved refining economics, and supply-chain delays—not windfall profits. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, crude oil prices have surged to their highest level in four years, and oil majors anticipate unexpected gains in Q2. ExxonMobil and Chevron’s profits are expected to more than triple in the April–June quarter compared to Q1, as the most severe supply disruption in oil market history—blocking Middle Eastern oil exports—has driven crude prices sharply higher, heightened market volatility, and depleted oil inventories across the U.S. and elsewhere. According to Reuters’ citation of estimates by analysts at the London Stock Exchange Group, Exxon is projected to report adjusted net income of $15.9 billion in Q2, while Chevron’s earnings are expected to approach $10 billion—both representing over threefold increases from Q1 profits. All major oil companies’ April–June profits are forecast to hit their highest level since 2022, when oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel amid the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. As in 2022, major oil companies are again facing public condemnation for profiting from war and alleged gasoline price collusion at service stations. This time, however, the accusations and calls for investigations into high gasoline prices originate from pro-oil-industry President Donald Trump. He demanded U.S. gasoline prices fall “immediately” to $2.25–$2.50 per gallon following a ceasefire with Iran—a conflict that triggered the global crude price surge. Oil majors argue that the lag between crude and refined product prices, coupled with historically low inventory levels across virtually all regions—including the U.S.—means it will take time for U.S. gasoline prices to decline. The oil majors’ unexpected Q2 profits have not meaningfully shielded the industry from U.S. government scrutiny over persistently high gasoline prices. In this cyclical sector, massive profits inevitably follow sharp oil price spikes and heightened volatility—a pattern that has repeatedly drawn accusations that oil companies extract windfall gains while gouging consumers at the pump, and one that will almost certainly recur. Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, stated that on July 4, 2026, the U.S. national average gasoline price stood at $3.755 per gallon—$0.81 lower than May’s peak but $0.65 higher year-on-year. Gasoline prices have fallen from a four-year high of $4.50 per gallon in early May; further declines are anticipated as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appears to normalize.

Oil price rises $1 per barrel → extra profit exceeds $1.6 billion! Unveiling the ‘cash-sucking’ secret of China’s largest offshore oil & gas producer.

CNOOC is China’s largest offshore crude oil and natural gas producer, with crude accounting for over 70% of its output. Its cost per barrel ranks among the world’s top tier—just $28 per barrel. For every $1-per-barrel increase in oil prices, CNOOC’s attributable net profit increases by RMB 1.6–1.8 billion (approx. $220–250 million), lifting net profit by roughly 1%. The Bohai Oilfield cluster—operational for over 30 years—forms the bedrock of CNOOC’s strength. It comprises three main series: Suizhong 36-1, Bozhong, and Kenli. Suizhong 36-1 has been producing for over three decades; the Bozhong oilfield cluster, discovered recently, is a billion-barrel-class new field and the primary driver of incremental output—mainly heavy oil. The Kenli oilfield cluster is a shallow-depth, billion-barrel-class field; Phase I of the Kenli 10-2 oilfield cluster commenced production on May 27, 2025—the latest large-scale field to come online. Industry analysts estimate that, assuming Brent crude remains at $85 per barrel, this field alone could generate annual incremental net profit in the RMB 1-billion range. Heavy oil extraction incurs relatively high thermal recovery costs during the first three years; thereafter, as water cut rises during mid-to-late production stages, per-barrel operating costs decline and profitability improves year-on-year. Currently, oilfields in China are classified by proven geological reserves (in hundred million barrels): Small oilfield: < 0.1 billion barrels Medium oilfield: 0.1–1 billion barrels (excluding 1 billion) Large oilfield: ≥1–10 billion barrels (excluding 10 billion) Giant (super-large) oilfield: ≥10 billion barrels Although petroleum is a non-renewable resource, limited extraction technologies in the last century—combined with vested interests and the 1970s Middle East oil embargo—fueled widespread claims that ‘global oil reserves would be exhausted within decades,’ reinforcing perceptions of oil scarcity.

Big Oil Is Grappling With How to Spend Its Windfall Profits

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Major oil companies are prioritizing debt reduction and financial discipline over aggressive spending despite record windfall profits from soaring oil prices. Executives cite past boom-and-bust cycles as the reason for avoiding new megaprojects during this temporary market disruption.

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Big Oil Is Grappling With How to Spend Its Windfall Profits

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