What is the core financial projection underpinning Braskem's $3.7 billion debt restructuring plan?

The core financial projection is a sustained recovery in polymer spreads and margins through to 2035 — specifically, Brazilian polyethylene (PE) spreads over naphtha projected to rise from $419/tonne in Q4 2026 to $679/tonne by Q3 2027 and stabilize at $630–680/tonne thereafter, while polypropylene (PP) spreads are expected to climb from $301/tonne in Q1 2026 to $606/tonne by late 2026; alongside this, EBITDA margins are projected to rebound from ~4% in 2024–2025 to 10–11% in 2026, 13–14% by the early 2030s, and 15% by 2035, with absolute EBITDA rising from $557 million in 2025 to $3.0 billion by 2035.

How do Braskem’s own effective domestic polymer prices differ from international reference spreads, and why does that matter for its recovery outlook?

Braskem’s own effective domestic PE prices were $937/tonne in Q1 2026 and are projected to reach $1,343/tonne by late 2026 and $1,304/tonne by Q3 2027 — significantly higher than the international reference PE-naphtha spreads of $419–$680/tonne over the same period; similarly, its effective PP prices rose from $794/tonne in Q1 2026 to a projected $1,293/tonne by late 2026 and $1,304/tonne by Q3 2027, outpacing European PP-naphtha spreads ($287–$350/tonne); this divergence matters because it reflects Braskem’s actual net pricing power and cost management — the basis for its more optimistic internal cash flow and margin recovery assumptions underpinning the debt restructuring.

Braskem Announces $3.7 Billion Debt Restructuring Plan Amid Polymer Price Recovery Outlook

Jun 25, 2026

Brazilian polymer producer Braskem announced a $3.7 billion debt restructuring plan reliant on future polymer price recoveries, causing its stock to drop nearly 11%. The strategy targets stabilized finances through 2035 via improved polyethylene and polypropylene margins.

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