Polyolefin capacity will continue to be shut down in 2024.

In Europe, the propylene price spread for polypropylene (PP) has improved, as polymer-grade propylene pricing in the region is relatively low and some PP plant shutdowns have provided support to PP prices. However, demand for PP in Europe remains persistently weak. The report states: “As propylene prices correct, the PP-to-propylene spread is expected to fall back to or below average levels over the coming weeks; meanwhile, demand weakness stemming from macroeconomic factors means that naphtha- and propane-to-PP spreads are expected to remain below average. ” Compared with other regions, spreads in Asia are typically lower and have remained below seasonal averages; rising raw material costs in September further narrowed these spreads. S&P Global notes that global PP supply-demand balance was relatively stable between 2015 and 2019. However, economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic threw markets into turmoil. 2020—the first year of the pandemic—saw PP capacity grow by 5.0%, far outpacing demand growth of just 0.4%, causing global PP operating rates to decline to 85%. Supply-demand balance rebounded slightly in 2021. Yet in 2022, demand for virgin PP resin actually fell by 1.2% to 77 million metric tons, while capacity grew by 6.4% to 96 million metric tons per year, sending global operating rates plummeting to 80%. Meanwhile, PP capacity expansion continues apace. S&P Global forecasts an additional 5.1 million metric tons per year of PP capacity in 2023 and 6.6 million metric tons per year in 2024. The firm projects global PP demand growth of 4.1% in 2023 and 5.6% in 2024—but this growth is insufficient to absorb the new capacity. In its latest 10-year polyolefins outlook released in August, S&P Global stated: “Over the next two to three years, capacity expansion will continue to outstrip demand growth, driving down operating rates and sustaining pressure on PP profitability. Going forward, the focus of the PP market is expected to shift—from reducing operating rates today—to capacity consolidation and project delays post-2024.” Accordingly, S&P Global expects PP capacity shutdowns to continue through 2027 in both Europe and Asia, totaling nearly 10 million metric tons per year. The polyethylene (PE) market is no better, with performance varying across product grades. In 2022, total PE capacity stood at 146 million metric tons per year—far exceeding virgin PE resin demand of 114 million metric tons—resulting in a net operating rate of only 78%, down from 83–85% during 2015–2021. During the pandemic, PE demand demonstrated remarkable resilience: it grew by 2.9% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2021. Yet, like PP resin, PE demand growth slumped sharply in 2022, rising by only 0.9%. At the same time, capacity continued expanding. Although PE demand rose by 9.1 million metric tons per year over those three years, PE capacity surged by 22.3 million metric tons per year—worsening the supply-demand imbalance by 13.2 million metric tons per year. With oversupply intensifying, PE resin prices kept falling and margins further compressed. In the U.S., partial capacity shutdowns in the first half of 2023 provided some support to PE prices, but as supply increased and export demand weakened, prices hit a three-year low in July.

U.S. high-dividend map: polyolefin industry chain — LyondellBasell (Netherlands), Dow Chemical (U.S.), Satellite Chemical (China).

Among its product portfolio, functional products mainly include C2 and C3 base chemicals, with acrylic acid and its esters as core offerings—holding approximately a 30% domestic market share, ranking first in China. High-performance polymer新材料 products primarily consist of polymers derived from C2 and C3 feedstocks, with representative examples being polyethylene (PE) and polystyrene (PS). Other products include hydrogen energy (resourceful utilization of by-product hydrogen); new-energy materials encompass battery-grade carbonate series (used in lithium-ion battery electrolytes), EAA (ethylene-acrylic acid copolymer), and POE (polyolefin elastomer). Figure: Revenue Composition (III) Figure: Year-on-Year Quarterly Profit Growth Rate From a micro-level growth perspective: LyondellBasell—Q2 2025 revenue totaled USD 15.335 billion, down 9.7% year-on-year; net income amounted to USD 292 million, down 79.10% year-on-year. The Olefins & Polyolefins—Americas segment delivered standout performance, achieving EBITDA of USD 318 million—up over 25% from Q1. This improvement stemmed primarily from the successful completion of maintenance at the Channelview integrated facility, which enhanced operational efficiency and polyethylene capacity utilization. Seasonally stronger demand for polyethylene and polypropylene across North America—driven by consumer packaging, healthcare, construction, and infrastructure sectors—also provided robust support. The Intermediates & Derivatives segment posted EBITDA of USD 290 million, up USD 71 million quarter-on-quarter. This segment benefited from lower benzene costs improving styrene margins, as well as industry-wide production shutdowns in Q2 supporting prices. Looking ahead to Q3, the company expects improved North American integrated polyethylene margins following the completion of scheduled April maintenance and higher prices. Projected operating rates are: 85% for North American Olefins & Polyolefins assets; 75% for European Olefins & Polyolefins assets; and 80% for Intermediates & Derivatives assets. Figure: Quarterly Profit and Year-on-Year / Quarter-on-Quarter Growth Rates Dow Chemical—Q2 2025 revenue totaled USD 20.5 billion, down 5.28% year-on-year; net income was negative USD 1.142 billion, down 219.58% year-on-year. Adjusted net income for Q2 2025 was USD 42 million, versus market expectations of a USD 90 million net loss. By business segment: (1) Performance Materials & Coatings generated USD 152 million in revenue, up 4% year-on-year, driven by seasonal demand growth in architectural coatings and higher sales volumes of downstream silicone products. (2) Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure underperformed expectations, posting a USD 185 million loss—below consensus—mainly due to declining sales volumes of polyurethanes and construction chemicals, partially offset by volume growth in Industrial Solutions. (3) Packaging & Specialty Packaging also underperformed, generating USD 71 million in revenue—below expectations—primarily impacted by declining overall margins. Additionally, the company announced a reduction of its quarterly dividend from USD 0.70 to USD 0.35 per share—a 50% cut. This marks the company’s first dividend reduction in over a decade, expected to save approximately USD 248 million annually. CEO Jim Fitterling stated the decision aims to “maximize long-term shareholder value amid persistent industry weakness and a 'lower-for-longer' earnings environment.”

Braskem SA adjusts US ethylene outlook, shares tied to North America margins

Jun 29, 2026

Braskem SA refines US ethylene and polyethylene margin outlook due to shifting North American petrochemical spreads. The company monitors feedstock prices and demand to adjust operational utilization and inventory levels in its US facilities.

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