The higher the oil price, the greater the opportunities in agriculture and the chemical industry.

Oil prices breaking $100 per barrel is merely the beginning—the real opportunities lie in the chemical and agricultural sectors. To understand this round of crude oil shock, we must first dispel an intuitive misconception: just because oil lies underground does not mean tankers are willing to transport it; even if tankers deliver it to port, refineries may lack sufficient capacity to process it; and even if refineries operate at full capacity, the refined products they produce may not match the specific types you urgently need. Once surging freight costs, war-risk insurance premiums, and processing fees are factored in, the global effective oil price has already exceeded $120 per barrel. ▲ Figure 1 | Barclays: Global refining crack margins hit historical extremes; downstream infrastructure faces structural deficits The U.S. 3-2-1 crack spread reached $64 per barrel, while global integrated refining margins surged to $59 per barrel. Source: Barclays Research. ▲ Figure 2 | Citi: Full-scope retail refined product prices worldwide have breached $120; refining and geopolitical premiums are widening Although nominal global crude oil prices hover around the $100-per-barrel threshold, the full-scope terminal cost—including processing margins and insurance—has already surpassed $120 per barrel. Source: Citi Research. The more acute shortage is occurring in diesel. Ordinary households fill up with gasoline for daily commuting, but diesel powers the very skeleton of the real economy. Long-haul freight trucks, farm tractors and harvesters, and hundreds-of-ton off-road mining dump trucks—all run on diesel. To curb inflation, the U.S. recently drew down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to the lowest level in over 40 years. Yet the crude drawn from the reserve is relatively light in quality—and cannot be easily converted into large volumes of diesel. Morgan Stanley’s tracking data shows that, excluding China, refining capacity across Asia-Pacific is already operating at full utilization, leaving virtually no spare margin. Diesel prices across the region have surged over 30% year-to-date. In the U.S., refining margins for diesel have even exceeded the price of crude oil itself—an extreme scenario. ▲ Figure 3 | Morgan Stanley: Refining capacity utilization in Asia-Pacific (excluding China) has peaked; diesel prices up 35% year-to-date Retail diesel price indices across major Asia-Pacific countries have risen sharply; industry-wide spare refining capacity has effectively been exhausted. Source: Morgan Stanley Research. So when diesel prices rise, pressure falls directly on agriculture. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade. Right now coincides with the critical fertilization window for South American soybeans and European winter wheat—yet fertilizer shipments are stalled, driving sharp increases in landed prices for ammonia and urea. Brazil, a top soybean exporter, imports 80% of its phosphate fertilizer; planting costs have thus spiked instantly. Compounding matters, meteorological forecasts indicate over a 90% probability of an extreme El Niño event this year. Fearing fuel shortages, major agricultural producers like Brazil and Indonesia have raised mandatory biofuel blending ratios—diverting large quantities of corn, sugar, and palm oil toward fuel production as an emergency measure. Grain exports originally destined for global markets are thus being withheld domestically. With expensive fertilizer, high diesel prices, and El Niño looming, agricultural input costs are soaring. ▲ Figure 4 | Goldman Sachs: The Strait of Hormuz has choked off one-third of global fertilizer trade, disrupting planting windows After the conflict escalated again in July, fertilizer exports through the strait plummeted, severely impacting Brazil’s soybean and Europe’s wheat procurement seasons. Source: Goldman Sachs.

Refined product prices are rising far faster than crude oil prices: Goldman Sachs has more than doubled its forecast for U.S. diesel refining margins.

Global refining markets are facing mounting supply constraints, with refined product prices clearly outpacing crude oil—especially in the diesel segment. Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its crack spread forecasts for diesel in both the U.S. and Europe, underscoring the persistent impact of geopolitical tensions on global refining capacity and refined product trade. In its recent report, Goldman Sachs noted that unplanned refinery shutdowns globally are running 60% above seasonal norms. Against a backdrop of constrained refining capacity and persistently declining refined product inventories, the firm raised its 2027 U.S. diesel crack spread forecast from $27 per barrel to $63 per barrel, and its EU forecast from $19 to $49 per barrel—more than doubling both prior estimates. The diesel crack spread—a key indicator of refiners’ profit margins after processing crude—is a strong signal that Goldman expects diesel markets to remain tight for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, Russia has extended its diesel export ban through September; Brazil’s peak agricultural season is approaching; and heating demand across the Northern Hemisphere is set to rebound this winter. Supply-side contractions combined with seasonally strengthening demand heighten the risk of further tightening in global diesel markets. In terms of price performance, refined products have also outpaced crude oil. Brent crude has risen nearly 50% year-to-date, whereas European diesel futures have surged by over 100% during the same period—making diesel the core driver of this energy market rally. Refinery outages compounded by geopolitical conflict delay recovery in refined product supply Goldman Sachs points out that global unplanned refinery shutdowns currently exceed seasonal norms by 60%. Even as some demand softens, refined product inventories continue to decline—indicating that the supply deficit remains unaddressed. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further strained refining operations: although Persian Gulf crude exports have recovered to 70–80% of pre-war levels, refined product shipments have only rebounded to 40% of pre-war volumes.

Brazil Diesel Imports at Risk as Global Prices Surge, Widening Petrobras Pricing Gap

Sep 16, 2026

Surging global diesel prices have widened the gap with Petrobras' domestic rates, causing import delays and raising concerns about localized supply disruptions in Brazil's agricultural sector ahead of harvest season.

reuters

2026-02-02

BPCL to Sign Supply Agreement with Petrobras

2026-02-12

Petrobras Clears Path for IG4’s Braskem Stake Transfer After Waiving Buyout Rights

2026-04-08

Brazil Natural Gas Distributors See Petrobras Raising Prices by Some 20% in May

2026-04-20

IG4 Seals Debt-for-Equity Deal for Novonor’s Braskem Stake, Pledges Financial Restructuring

2026-04-22

Petrobras Board Member Seeks Fuel Price Increase to Stem Losses