Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise has firmly sided with high school students and demonstrators, significantly boosting its popularity. Meanwhile, Le Pen—seeking to polish her image ahead of elections scheduled for six months later—has shifted focus toward calling for crackdowns and touting ‘fiscal responsibility,’ pledging to cut €150 billion in expenditures—even as the largest anti-austerity movement in a generation is sweeping across the continent! The Bankruptcy of Reformism This is how we counter the far right: when a militant, radical left leadership emerges from among youth, even relatively politically backward strata can be galvanized. Class-based issues move to center stage; culture-war issues recede into secondary importance; the right exposes its true nature and is forced onto the defensive. Before youth mobilized, precisely such leadership was missing. The established reformist ‘left’ parties have an abysmal record—repeatedly implementing austerity measures demanded by capital. Thus arises a paradoxical situation: this movement has sharply tilted the political balance across Europe—and indeed much broader regions—leftward, yet electorally, far-right demagogic forces are gaining ground: Spain’s Vox, Germany’s AfD, France’s National Rally, Brazil’s Bolsonaro, the UK’s Reform Party, and Portugal’s Chega—all likely to seize power in upcoming elections. The capitalist crisis is shaking society to its core, drawing even traditionally conservative workers and middle-class layers into the turmoil. When these groups search for answers, the right exploits their anti-establishment sentiment through demagoguery. The root cause lies in the weakness and class-collaborationist stance of so-called ‘left’ parties and trade union leaderships—leaving behind a vast political vacuum. But this does not mean these masses are irrevocably drawn to reactionary or racist positions; they can absolutely be won over by a genuine revolutionary program. Where no revolutionary alternative exists, reformist politicians attempt to ride the wave of social discontent—but do so feebly. Spanish Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez pretends to stand with the housing movement, symbolically submitting a handful of minor reform bills to parliament—only to see them rejected, after which he promptly announces snap elections. How could the public possibly feel enthusiasm for Sánchez? His government has governed for eight years, doing nothing on the housing crisis—only staging performative gestures once the crisis erupted. Brazil’s case is even clearer. Millions took to the streets against Bolsonaro—an objective vote of confidence in Lula. Yet it was precisely during Lula’s administration that living standards deteriorated continuously—creating the very conditions enabling Bolsonaro’s comeback. So even with Lula and the Workers’ Party in office, movements opposing the status quo still surged. A teenage demonstrator told the media: “We fight for Brazil—not for Lula.” Millions of participants viewed this movement as a struggle for democracy, resistance against U.S. imperialism’s expansion in Latin America, and opposition to an openly reactionary, military-linked far right. A large segment of youth sees further than Lula—they merely wish to use Lula to defeat the right, while simultaneously pursuing more radical, even communist, ideas. Struggling for Communism This current wave of struggle remains far from its peak—even as the crisis of European capitalism intensifies daily. Just this week, French government bond yields surged past 5% for the first time in 23 years. The yield spread between French and German bonds evokes memories of the 2011–2015 Eurozone debt crisis. But this time, the storm’s epicenter is no longer confined to smaller countries like Greece—it has shifted squarely to core economies: France, Italy, and Germany—directly threatening the very survival of the EU system. What is driving this surge in sovereign bond yields?

Western politics is collapsing—how should China seize the opportunity?

From recent far-left street movements in France, to Germany’s far-right AfD winning a majority in a state parliament; from massive anti-establishment demonstrations in Greece, to Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister Sánchez calling early national elections; from the fiercely contested Brazilian presidential election, to democratic socialist surges impacting U.S. midterm elections—how should China respond to this strategic window, characterized by deepening political fragmentation in Europe, increasing diversification across the Global South, and the West’s growing inability to forge a unified ideological consensus? This is a question worthy of serious reflection. In October 2026, two diametrically opposed developments unfolded simultaneously in France. On one side, on October 6, hundreds of thousands took to the streets protesting underfunding of education, soaring cost of living, and deteriorating public services—left-wing parties, trade unions, students, and teachers reorganized and social mobilization visibly intensified. On the other side, opinion polls showed the far-right National Rally steadily leading: Le Pen’s first-round support had already climbed above 30%. Both left and right surged upward—while the political center was squeezed out. This is not a phenomenon unique to France; the same script, with local variations, is playing out worldwide. A natural question thus arises: What does this mean for China? Many people’s immediate reaction is: ‘The West is falling apart—China’s strategic pressure eases, maybe even we’ll just “win by lying flat.”’ Is this assessment correct? Let’s continue exploring below. I. Five Countries, Five Scripts—One Collapse First, let’s examine what’s actually happening—what exactly does this ‘polarization’ entail? France: Simultaneous radicalization of left and right. The 2027 presidential election is still half a year away—but its contours are already clear. Le Pen (National Rally) commands 33%–35% support in first-round polling—the undisputed frontrunner across the entire right-wing spectrum. The radical left’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise) possesses strong mobilizing capacity and could reach the second round—but victory remains unlikely. The left is deeply fractured: tensions among the Socialist Party, Greens, social democrats, and La France Insoumise sometimes run deeper than their shared antagonism toward the right. Another sword hangs over France: public debt now exceeds 119% of GDP—fiscal sustainability, interest rates, and budget cuts loom over everyone. Le Pen has begun addressing this issue—proposing roughly €140 billion in spending cuts by 2032, aiming to convince financial markets she can rein in deficits. This itself speaks volumes: an anti-system party, once nearing real power, must answer the question, ‘How exactly will you govern?’—and doing so inevitably erodes its strongest political asset: its very anti-system identity. A September survey by Le Monde found: 71% of French citizens hope the next election brings ‘genuine change,’ while only 19% seek merely ‘incremental adjustments.’ In other words, the overwhelming majority believe the status quo must change—the only disagreement lies in whether to shift leftward or rightward. The center—increasingly, no one wants to stand there. Germany: The far right is no longer just a ‘protest party.’ Germany offers an even more telling example. In the latest ARD poll, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) scored 27%, ranking first; the center-right CDU/CSU coalition stood at 20%, the center-left SPD at 13%, and the Greens at 16%. Another INSA survey placed the AfD at 30.5%. This is no longer the voice of a marginal protest party.

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