Why has JPMorgan withdrawn its constructive stance on Braskem, and what key factors drove this reversal?

JPMorgan withdrew its constructive stance because the temporary boost from Middle East–driven petrochemical spreads has unwound, and creditors are pushing back against Braskem’s debt restructuring plan. Specifically, the bank cited eroded durability of favorable spreads due to the ceasefire and the US-Iran MOU, plus creditor rejection of management’s initial proposal and explicit demands for greater shareholder burden-sharing — shifting the equity story from fundamentals to restructuring outcomes.

What is JPMorgan’s updated earnings forecast for Braskem in 2026, and how does it compare to its prior estimate and Braskem’s 2025 results?

JPMorgan now expects Braskem’s 2026 core earnings to be $2.2 billion, which is 20.1% below its prior estimate and broadly in line with figures implied by Braskem’s own restructuring documents; this contrasts sharply with Braskem’s 2025 earnings of $557 million.

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