Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) Stock Price Declines Continuously: A Divergence Between 'Fundamentals and Narrative'

So the question arises: With such impressive financial data, what exactly is the market afraid of? III. Dissection of Bearish Factors: The 'Perfect Storm' of Five Pressures Breaking down the market, industrial, policy, and capital dimensions reveals that this round of decline stems from the simultaneous eruption of five forces. 1. Trigger: 'De-CATL-ization' Evolves from Narrative to Reality This is the heaviest—and most persistent—bearish factor weighing on CATL, the 'Battery King'. A wave of customer actions, densely concentrated in mid-September, transformed 'concerns' into 'established facts': ・ Xiaomi Auto: Announced a strategic partnership with CALB (China Aviation Lithium Battery) and Sunwoda for its 'Longjia Battery' system, expanding its battery supplier base from CATL and BYD to four companies; its newly launched Pengpai N70/N90 models adopt the Xiaomi Longjia Battery System, with cells supplied by CALB and Sunwoda. ・ Li Auto: Plans to inject RMB 2.65 billion into Sunwoda Power, becoming its second-largest shareholder post-transaction; the 2026 Li Auto i6 model uses CALB batteries; by Q4, Li Auto intends to switch its entire vehicle lineup to self-developed batteries. ・ Industry-wide: XPeng, NIO, GAC, Geely, Changan, and Leapmotor are all advancing self-developed battery strategies or multi-supplier approaches. Market estimates suggest Li Auto and Xiaomi together account for approximately 13.6% of CATL’s domestic battery installation volume. Though this figure appears modest, its symbolic significance far outweighs its direct impact—it signals the beginning of 'point-wise loss' among core customers. The deeper conflict lies in profit distribution and control over decision-making. In H1 2026, CATL’s net profit reached RMB 43.284 billion, whereas the combined net profit of 15 major listed automakers (A-share + H-share) totaled only RMB 21.048 billion—less than half of CATL’s. Meanwhile, the auto industry’s profit margin stood at just 3.6% from January to July. A single battery pack accounts for 30–40% of total vehicle cost—and over 50% in premium, long-range EVs. Automakers’ genuine anxiety is this: entrusting their 'heart' entirely to a supplier exposes them to risks—including loss of production scheduling autonomy. Yet here is a sober assessment: 'De-CATL-ization' ≠ 'No use of CATL'. A more precise description is 'reducing share, preserving high-end'. Mid-to-low-tier and new-volume models introduce secondary suppliers to balance costs, while flagship high-end models continue relying on CATL. In China’s ternary battery segment, the CR3 (combined market share of top three players) stands as high as 93.5%, with CATL commanding 75.2%—a high-end technological moat unlikely to be breached in the short term. 2. Policy Factor: Implementation of Battery Consumption Tax Effective September 1, China’s lithium battery industry ended over a decade of exemption, imposing a 2% consumption tax on liquid lithium-ion batteries; the rate will rise to 4% by September 2027, adding an estimated RMB 1,200–3,000 per vehicle. Simultaneously, export tax rebates will be fully phased out starting January 1, 2027. In the short term, this represents a cost shock; longer term, it may actually benefit industry leaders (smaller players bear cost pressure less easily). Yet capital markets focus solely on the near term, interpreting this move as a structural, long-term margin suppressor for the sector. 3. Supply-Side Pressure: Suspension of Capacity Approvals + Overcapacity Concerns Multiple leading battery manufacturers have confirmed that since H2 2026, local authorities across China have largely halted approvals for new power battery and energy storage battery capacity projects. Meanwhile, industry analysts estimate planned energy storage cell capacity expansions exceed 800 GWh, with total planned capacity approaching 2 TWh—far surpassing real global demand. At the same time, CATL has counter-cyclically acquired Chongqing Yaoning New Energy—a Geely-affiliated company with a planned 30 GWh capacity. Its expansion amid industry-wide capacity discipline was interpreted by foreign investors as 'expanding instead of contracting', becoming a key catalyst for the sell-off on September 15.

CATL Loses RMB 790 Billion in Market Value Within Four Months! 'De-CATL-ization' Sweeps Across Automakers—Yet Profits Surge 42%, Still Rejected by the Market

Earning RMB 43.2 billion in six months—an increase of 42% year-on-year—while global market share continues rising. Yet its stock price has retreated 35% from its May peak, wiping out RMB 790 billion in market value. This is CATL in 2026: performance and share price moving in diametrically opposite directions. On September 16, CATL’s A-shares plunged over 4% intraday to RMB 302.20—the lowest level since September 2025—representing a 35% correction from its May high of RMB 467.06. Its H-shares fell 5% intraday to HKD 490.20—the lowest since March this year—and down 38% from their June peak. What triggered this round of selling? The phrase 'De-CATL-ization'. Li Auto invested RMB 2.65 billion in Sunwoda Power and announced full deployment of its self-developed batteries across all models; Xiaomi’s Pengcheng N70 and N90 abandoned CATL, switching to CALB and Sunwoda for cell supply. Even Huawei’s Harmony Intelligent Mobility ecosystem—long reliant exclusively on CATL for its Aito brand—has introduced CALB and Gotion High-Tech as secondary suppliers. The market’s concern follows a straightforward logic: automakers are weakening CATL’s pricing power through 'self-development + multi-supplier' strategies, potentially eroding its high-end market share. But the truth behind 'De-CATL-ization' differs from common perception. First, a counterintuitive fact: CATL’s market share hasn’t declined—in fact, it’s rising. In H1 2026, CATL’s share of domestic passenger vehicle power battery installations reached 46.7%, up 5.6 percentage points year-on-year; its global power battery usage share stood at 40.2%, up 2.2 percentage points YoY. According to SNE Research, CATL’s global installed capacity from January to July totaled 289.6 GWh, lifting its market share from 38.0% a year earlier to 39.9%—approaching the 40% threshold. Share is rising—and so is profit. Revenue for H1 reached RMB 276.917 billion, up 54.80% YoY; net attributable profit hit RMB 43.284 billion, up 41.98% YoY; revenue from energy storage battery systems amounted to RMB 53.261 billion, surging 87.54% YoY. So what, exactly, is being 'de-CATL-ized'? A more accurate description is 'de-singular-supplier-ization'. Xiaomi previously sourced over 80% of its batteries from CATL; now it has expanded its supplier base from two to four companies—adding CALB and Sunwoda. Li Auto’s investment in Sunwoda and its push for self-developed batteries do not reflect dissatisfaction with CATL’s products—Li Auto explicitly stated that CATL’s inventory of 5C ternary lithium batteries is nearing depletion. Automakers have never competed solely over battery price—they compete over product definition rights. Power batteries constitute a disproportionately high share of total vehicle cost and directly affect range, fast-charging capability, safety, and chassis layout. As the new-energy vehicle industry enters a phase of low growth and intense competition, OEMs can no longer afford to fully outsource this critical capability to suppliers. So-called 'self-development' often means automakers define technical specifications and requirements, while professional battery manufacturers handle manufacturing—transforming the relationship from simple procurement into co-R&D. The essence of 'De-CATL-ization' is automakers’ refusal to work as 'CATL’s subcontractors'—but the prerequisite for refusing to do so is that CATL’s technology remains best-in-class. The first batch of Li Auto i9 models still offers CATL’s 5C ternary lithium batteries; the switch to self-developed batteries will occur only after those ramp up to scale. Xiaomi’s N90 Max adopts CALB batteries—but premium models still require stable, high-quality deliveries from top-tier battery suppliers.

CATL Bulls Reject 'De-CATLization' Fear After $100 Billion Rout

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Investors remain confident in CATL's technology leadership despite a $100 billion market value decline and 'de-CATLization' fears. The company launched its first buyback while analysts highlight its stable market share and dominance in premium battery supply chains.

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