How should we evaluate Zhai Dongsheng’s claim that 'high oil prices benefit China’s rise'?

The PLA rushes in—lo and behold, steaming-hot meals; soldiers shovel food vigorously into their bowls and pockets, all while continuing to chase the enemy. This is the famous saying: 'Press on with remaining courage to pursue the routed foe.' That is precisely Zhai Dongsheng’s point. High oil prices undoubtedly exert tremendous pressure on industrial production—many industries face difficulties such as raw material shortages and energy deficits. Modern agriculture is jokingly dubbed 'petroleum agriculture,' with petroleum and natural gas constituting indispensable components. Yes, we face challenges—but do other countries not face them too? Although the U.S. is no longer an industrial powerhouse, it remains a major agricultural nation. American agriculture relies heavily on fertilizers—but the U.S. cannot produce enough fertilizer domestically and must import substantial quantities. Data shows that the U.S. fertilizer self-sufficiency rate falls short of 55%, leaving a shortfall of at least 40% or more. Under conditions of tight oil-and-gas supply, countries worldwide prioritize safeguarding domestic agricultural production and have introduced export bans on fertilizers. The U.S. possesses energy resources—but lacks sufficient production capacity. Expanding fertilizer production capacity is no simple matter—it cannot be accomplished merely by snapping one’s fingers. Even if the U.S. government urges capitalists to scale up output, would they comply? Why expand capacity when they can simply double prices and earn profits effortlessly? LyondellBasell, a major chemical conglomerate, saw its stock price surge 26% cumulatively. Due to Middle East tensions, Asian petrochemical firms were forced to cut production, driving up prices for plastic products like polyethylene. The company estimates that every $100-per-ton increase in polyethylene prices will boost its profits by $320 million. CF Industries (CF.US), listed in the U.S., consumes vast quantities of natural gas (885430) to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer (884026). On Thursday, its share price surged over 12% intraday, hitting an all-time high. Year-to-date, its stock has risen more than 75%, making it one of this year’s hottest equities. A quick online search yields nothing but bullish news. Expand capacity? A pipe dream. U.S. chemical enterprises feast abundantly—while others go hungry?

Cross-pattern case collection

The cross pattern is a new piece of information in Bayesian analysis—not a condition used to construct prior probabilities. Prior probabilities are determined by fundamental corporate analysis, such as critical factors like resource endowments and strategic alliances. Continuously collecting cases helps reveal derivative, tradeable patterns. This enhances resilience against noise interference, increases institutional weight, and directs bets toward assets with the lowest discount value and strongest correlation to monetary purchasing power. The greater the number of qualitative and quantitative cases drawn from fundamentals, the clearer the boundaries for tradable judgments become—and the narrower the gray zone of unjudgeable uncertainty grows. BGI Genomics: Monthly cross pattern accumulation observed in June 2026; cross pattern appearing in Q2. Positioned below the zero line, with the fast line approaching the slow line. Dingpeng Holdings: Consecutive cross patterns occurred in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. MACD green bars show the fast line plunging below the zero line. Cross patterns appearing both annually and quarterly—especially when combined with MACD signals—will become focal points. ACM Research: In April 2026, exhibited a red weekly cross pattern, matching the divergence between the MACD fast and slow lines during that period.

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