Why does CF Industries believe the global nitrogen supply-demand balance will remain tighter than expected in the near- and medium-term?

CF Industries believes the global nitrogen supply-demand balance will remain tighter than expected in the near- and medium-term due to the prolonged Middle East conflict, which has disrupted ammonia and urea shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, curtailed or shut down a significant amount of regional nitrogen capacity, restricted LNG exports from the Middle East, and consequently reduced nitrogen production in LNG-dependent countries like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh; additionally, sharply higher European natural gas prices—driven by low gas storage and high LNG prices—have raised the global nitrogen market clearing price needed to meet demand, compounding the tightness already present at the start of 2026 following strong 2025 demand and prior supply disruptions from geopolitical events and natural gas shortages.

What is CF Industries' outlook for India's urea imports in 2026, and what factors are driving that expectation?

CF Industries expects India to import 10–12 million tonnes of urea in 2026, driven by low starting inventory and reduced domestic production caused by insufficient LNG imports; as a result, India will need to tender more frequently for urea this year, though this increased demand may be partially offset by lower urea demand in other import regions—including Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia—where affordability concerns have intensified due to tight global supply and higher prices.

CF Industries Sees Global Nitrogen Supply-Demand Balance Remaining Tighter Than Expected

May 8, 2026

CF Industries forecasts a tighter-than-expected global nitrogen supply-demand balance driven by Middle East conflicts and natural gas shortages. These disruptions have curtailed regional capacity, spiked prices, and increased import reliance in markets like India.

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2026-05-08

CF Industries Sees Global Nitrogen Supply-Demand Balance Remaining Tighter Than Expected

CF Industries Sees Global Nitrogen Supply-Demand Balance Remaining Tighter Than Expected

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