In-depth analysis of China's A-share titanium industry: Cycles, divergence, and high-end breakthroughs from a full-industry-chain perspective

Prices continued to decline. Titanium concentrate with 46% TiO₂ grade weakened throughout the year: priced at approximately RMB 2,080–2,150/ton (tax-exclusive) at the beginning of 2025, its average annual price fell to RMB 1,605/ton by year-end—down roughly 23%–25% from the early-year high (SMM, calculated based on the upper end of the initial range); the average price in the first half of 2026 stood at ~RMB 1,468/ton, down another ~26% year-on-year (Three Cobblers Report); by early August 2026, it had further declined to ~RMB 1,230/ton, approaching the low seen at the start of 2020 (Tencent News / Northeast Securities). Imported ore followed the same downward trend: cumulative imports from January to November 2025 totaled 4.656 million tons, up 3.38% year-on-year (SMM); imports from January to June 2026 reached 2.9288 million tons, up 13.56% year-on-year—supply pressure remains unabated. Why did prices fall? The primary cause was weak downstream demand for titanium dioxide (TiO₂) pigment and sponge titanium, while upstream mining supply remained elevated—leading to persistent oversupply over the year. Mysteel estimates titanium concentrate supply at 9.84 / 10.27 / 10.71 million tons for 2025–2027, indicating ongoing market looseness. Industry consensus holds that long-term pricing for 46% titanium concentrate will oscillate within the RMB 1,400–1,550/ton range (Mysteel). Implications for A-share stocks: Resource-sector players’ profits are directly tied to ore prices. In a falling-price cycle, only those with lower costs and higher gross margins can withstand the pressure. Anning Co., Ltd. maintained a gross margin of 72% on its titanium concentrate business in 2025 (Huatai Research), with 55% on vanadium-titanium iron concentrate and an overall gross margin of 62.3%—among the thickest profit cushions in the industry; meanwhile, Panzhihua Iron and Steel (Vanadium & Titanium) Co., Ltd. and Lomon Billions leverage integrated “ore–slag–titanium dioxide/sponge titanium” operations to convert resource advantages into cost advantages. III. Midstream Manufacturing Segment: A Tale of Two Cities 3.1 Titanium Dioxide (TiO₂) Pigment: Cost-driven price hikes—but overcapacity remains unresolved Titanium dioxide is the single largest titanium-consuming product, with ~58%–62% used in coatings (figures vary slightly across data sources). National output in 2025 stood at ~4.72 million tons (China Business Industry Research Institute; SMM’s figure is ~4.178 million tons—the discrepancy stems from differing sample coverage), down ~1.0% year-on-year—the first annual decline in over two decades; effective capacity stands at 5.7 million tons/year, with utilization rate at ~82.8% (China Business Industry Research Institute). The world’s top five producers (Lomon Billions, Chemours, Tronox, Venator, and Kronos) collectively hold ~42% market share (Reports and Data Titanium Dioxide Market Report; Kronos 2025 10-K filing), while China exhibits a “one-dominant, many-strong” structure—Lomon Billions commands 1.51 million tons/year capacity, ranking first globally and holding ~26%–29% domestic market share. A rare divergence emerged between price and cost. Average price in 2025 was RMB 13,677/ton, down 12% year-on-year (Three Cobblers Report). Yet in the first half of 2026, a wave of “cost-driven” price increases unfolded: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up sulfur and sulfuric acid prices, raising production costs for sulfate-process titanium dioxide by ~RMB 3,000–5,000/ton. Industry leader Lomon Billions implemented multiple price adjustments during the year, lifting the national average price from RMB 13,300/ton at end-February to RMB 16,733/ton by early June—a cumulative increase exceeding 25% (Northern Nonferrous Metals Network).

Titanium dioxide sector under pressure: Understanding market chill and underlying logic behind A-share 'sea of green'

1. Transmission pressure from the real estate market: Architectural coatings represent the largest consumption segment for titanium dioxide. In recent years, China’s real estate market has remained in a prolonged adjustment phase, with subdued new construction starts and sluggish housing transaction activity—directly causing a sharp contraction in demand for architectural coatings. As the core pigment delivering opacity and whiteness in coatings, titanium dioxide demand inevitably suffered first—orders showed little growth. 2. Slow recovery in industrial and consumer sectors: Beyond coatings, plastics, papermaking, and inks also constitute major application areas for titanium dioxide. Against the backdrop of a slowing global economic recovery, these industries likewise face growth headwinds. Purchases of titanium dioxide remain largely limited to fulfilling basic production “must-have” needs, lacking strong impetus for large-scale inventory replenishment; market trading sentiment remains cautious. II. Loose supply structure undermines pricing power In contrast to the “cold” demand side stands a “stable”—even “loose”—supply side. 1. Ample production capacity: As the world’s largest titanium dioxide producer, China maintains abundant overall supply capacity. Although some outdated capacity has been phased out in recent years, leading enterprises continue expanding their capacity—intensifying competition markedly. Against the prevailing “buyer’s market” dynamics downstream, any attempt to raise prices faces formidable resistance. 2. Cost support—but insufficient as a catalyst: Upstream titanium concentrate prices, after earlier volatility, have recently stabilized—providing some cost floor for titanium dioxide pricing and preventing steep declines. Yet this stability severely compresses producers’ profit margins. With weak demand, cost increases cannot be effectively passed through to downstream buyers; manufacturers generally find themselves trapped in a “high-cost, low-demand” dilemma, resulting in mounting profitability pressure—which naturally manifests in stock price declines. III. Cautious market sentiment—short-term outlook remains bleak Taking both supply and demand into account, current market participants’ sentiment leans heavily toward caution. As shown in the screenshot data, even industry leaders such as Lomon Billions face downward pressure on their stock prices, while smaller, more volatility-sensitive firms like JINPU Titanium Industry experienced steeper declines (−3.64%).

Chemours falls as RBC downgrades stock on persistent TiO2 weakness

Oct 13, 2026

RBC Capital downgraded Chemours to Sector Perform due to persistent titanium dioxide demand weakness and project delays. The firm lowered its price target significantly, citing reduced EBITDA estimates despite recent PFAS litigation settlements.

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