Rankings | World's Largest Copper Mine: Annual Output Reaches 1.3476 Million Tonnes; Two Chinese Enterprises Feature Among Top Ten

Notably, four of the world’s top ten copper mines have Japanese corporate involvement—backed by investment from Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo conglomerates. In recent years, Chinese enterprises have accelerated overseas expansion. The Las Bambas copper mine in Peru—jointly owned by MMG (China Minmetals Resources), CITIC, and Pagoda Tree Investment—ranks third globally. The mine had long been plagued by protests and operated at low capacity for years. It has now achieved three consecutive years of stable operations; with steady production from its second mining area, Chalcobamba, its 2025 output reached 411,300 tonnes—a 27% year-on-year increase—and the second-highest output since commissioning. The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo—co-owned by Zijin Mining and Ivanhoe Mines—slipped from third to eighth place. A seismic event in late May triggered widespread underground flooding, halting operations for nearly one month. As a result, output declined from 437,100 tonnes in 2024 to 385,800 tonnes. Currently, Kamoa-Kakula has not yet fully recovered: copper-in-concentrate output in Q1 2026 dropped 54% year-on-year to 61,906 tonnes. Ivanhoe Mines has again lowered its near-term production guidance, citing ongoing underground development, repair work, and access construction—which will constrain ore supply over the next 18–24 months. Kamoa-Kakula is not the worst-hit: the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia—the world’s second-largest—suffered a major mudslide in September last year, causing a shutdown. Output plummeted from 816,000 tonnes in 2024 to 460,400 tonnes—a 44% decline. On May 8 this year, Freeport-McMoRan—the mine’s operator—announced that current capacity has only recovered to 40–50% of pre-incident levels, pushing full resumption from late 2027 to early 2028. The company has sharply cut its 2026 production guidance—down 35% from the prior estimate of 770,000 tonnes. Earlier reports indicated the incident released 800,000 tonnes of slurry, making remediation far more difficult than anticipated.

Global Copper Mine Market Prices, Supply, and Forecast Analysis (30-Page Report)

➢ On May 20, 2025, intermittent seismic activity occurred at the Kakula underground mine, rupturing underground river channels and increasing inflow volume. Following Ivanhoe Mines’ announcement suspending underground mining operations at Kakula, management advanced phased resumption efforts across the mine’s western and eastern sections. Ivanhoe Mines issued updated 2025 Kamoa-Kakula copper production guidance of 370,000–420,000 tonnes of copper metal—down 28% from its initial guidance of 520,000–580,000 tonnes. ➢ In early June 2025, Teck Resources’ Carmen de Andacollo copper mine experienced mechanical failure. The mine must shut down its SAG mill for repairs, interrupting production for one month. Its 2025 production guidance stands at 45,000–55,000 tonnes—approximately 10% of Teck Resources’ total copper output. ➢ In early August 2025, Codelco’s El Teniente copper mine reported a fatal workplace accident. Following a deadly collapse at El Teniente in late July, Codelco revised its 2025 copper output forecast downward to 316,000 tonnes—previously projected at 370,000 tonnes. ➢ In early September 2025, Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine in Chile was forced to halt operations after two ball mill motors failed consecutively within one week. This incident will cause temporary output declines. Capstone’s management estimates repairs will take approximately four weeks, reducing copper output by 3,000–4,000 tonnes. ◼ The world’s second-largest copper mine—Grasberg—remains offline due to the mudslide. On September 8, Freeport announced that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a large-scale wet-material outburst that blocked access tunnels and trapped seven workers underground, prompting immediate suspension of operations. The company expects Q3 copper sales to decline ~4% year-on-year and gold sales ~6%. For FY2026, output may fall ~35% below prior forecasts of 170 million pounds of copper and 1.6 million ounces of gold. Under its phased restart plan, operational rates are expected to return to pre-incident levels by 2027. According to SMM’s assessment, Grasberg’s 2025 copper output is now projected at 488,000 tonnes (down from 750,000 tonnes previously), and 2026 output at 500,000 tonnes of copper metal (down from 730,000 tonnes). ◼ Overall, the Grasberg incident in Indonesia has most significantly impacted market sentiment this year: copper prices surged above USD 8,000/tonne, and market participants widely revised supply-demand balance sheets—anticipating persistent global copper concentrate deficits in both 2025 and 2026. ◼ Global copper mine output is projected to decline in 2025. Although new projects—including the Phase II expansion of China-backed Mirador copper mine and continued output growth at Las Bambas—provide incremental supply, multiple overseas projects face output reductions. Total global copper mine output is expected to fall by 134,000 tonnes year-on-year versus 2024—driven by Grasberg’s mudslide-related shortfall, Kakula’s earthquake-induced disruption, Batu Hijau’s output reduction due to revised mining sequencing, and QB2’s lowered production targets stemming from persistent engineering challenges, water discharge difficulties, and technical constraints.

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