What is the projected change in China's oil demand for 2026, and what are the main drivers cited by Sinopec's research arm?

China’s oil demand is expected to fall by 600,000 barrels a day in 2026, according to the Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute. The main drivers cited are the impact of the US-Iran war and the rapid spread of electric vehicles — with the latter causing permanent displacement of fuel demand, particularly in transport, while the former contributed to a sharp, immediate contraction following the Middle East conflict outbreak in late February.

How do gasoline and diesel demand projections for this year reflect broader structural shifts in China's energy consumption?

Gasoline demand is expected to fall 8.7% to 149 million tons, and diesel consumption is projected to contract 11.4% to 164 million tons — declines driven partly by consumer behavior (e.g., reduced travel due to high oil prices, accounting for ~30% of lost demand) but primarily by irreversible shifts such as the rise of electric vehicles, including electric heavy trucks whose sales share surged from ~20% at year-start to over 40% by July–August and may reach 50% for the full year.

China Oil Demand to Shrink This Year, Sinopec Research Arm Says

Sep 9, 2026

Sinopec forecasts China's oil demand will fall by 600,000 barrels daily due to geopolitical tensions and EV adoption. Gasoline and diesel consumption are projected to contract sharply, weighing on the refining sector.

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