What situation would ultimately arise if countries continue facing an energy crisis?

Even under the most extreme scenario—where not a single drop of oil can be exported from the Middle East—we still have alternative response plans, because we have long ceased to rely entirely on the Middle East. Years ago, over half of China’s imported oil came from Gulf countries. Yet, beginning more than a decade ago, we launched a far-sighted strategic repositioning. Today, China’s oil imports flow through four major channels: the Middle East, Russia, Central Asia, and Myanmar! Each year, we import 100 million tonnes of oil and 38.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia. Each year, we import 20 million tonnes of oil and 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas from three Central Asian countries—Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Each year, 22 million tonnes of oil and 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas are transported overland via the China–Myanmar energy corridor. We are even simultaneously purchasing oil and natural gas resources from certain South American countries. The share of crude oil imported from the Middle East has dropped from 52% a decade ago to just 41% today—we have long prepared for risk diversification. Moreover, we fully recognize that dependence on Russia is not sustainable in the long term. Therefore, while deepening energy cooperation with Russia, we are also vigorously advancing the transition to new energy sources. In 2015, non-fossil fuel power generation accounted for only about 26% of China’s total electricity output; ten years later, this figure has surged to 42.9%—a remarkable increase of 17 percentage points! According to statistics, in Q1 2025, China’s installed wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity surpassed 1.5 billion kW—surpassing thermal power for the first time to become China’s dominant power source. Today, newly added wind and PV generation alone meets 97.1% of society’s newly added electricity demand. This means that starting in 2026, all newly added societal electricity demand will be fully covered by clean energy. Even more remarkably, we are constructing hydropower stations and photovoltaic bases across the country at scale. At this pace, I estimate it will take no more than 5–10 years before China becomes the world’s first-ever clean-energy superpower—an unprecedented milestone in human history. We are witnessing history unfold! Of course, we must acknowledge that the Middle East conflict does exert a certain degree of impact on us—but this impact is largely confined to livelihoods and consumer prices: oil prices may rise temporarily, and some industrial products may experience modest price hikes, as international oil prices remain elevated—a factual reality. Yet we will not face the kind of comprehensive social disruption seen in countries like Vietnam or Thailand. We won’t need to implement rolling blackouts, shut down factories, urge remote work, or see motorists queueing at gas stations—because our strategic reserves and contingency options vastly exceed theirs. In fact, from a certain perspective, the energy crisis triggered by the Middle East war may even prove beneficial to us. First, domestically, we are currently grappling with deflation. While the U.S. and Europe fret over surging inflation and soaring living costs, what we most urgently need is a measured, orderly rebound in prices. Prolonged low prices mean people earn less; only when prices begin rising moderately can the economy truly enter recovery. Crucially, we must carefully manage the magnitude of this rise—ensuring price increases remain moderate and controlled.

"The 15th Five-Year Energy Revolution: The Trillion-Yuan Opportunity Behind a Decade-Long Doubling"

The Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly sets a target of raising the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to approximately 25% by 2030. This implies an increase of roughly 3.3 percentage points over five years (from about 21.7% in 2025). According to data released by the National Energy Administration, as of the end of February 2025, China’s installed non-fossil energy power generation capacity reached 2 billion kW for the first time—accounting for 58.8% of the nation’s total installed capacity—laying a solid foundation for the doubling goal. Lin Weibin, Director of the Energy Policy Research Office at the China Energy Research Society, estimates that China’s total energy consumption in 2025 will reach approximately 6.17 billion tonnes of standard coal, of which non-fossil energy will account for about 1.34 billion tonnes. Implementing the “Decade-Long Doubling Action for Non-Fossil Energy” means adding over 1.3 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent in non-fossil energy over the next decade, pushing the total to more than 1.8 billion tonnes by 2030. Approximately 70% of the incremental energy demand over the next five years must be met by non-fossil energy sources. 1.2 Annual 1-percentage-point rise in electricity’s share of final energy consumption During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, electricity’s share of final energy consumption will rise by about one percentage point annually. At the 2026 National People’s Congress, National Committee Member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and Chairman of China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd., Wen Shugang, proposed aiming for an electrification rate of around 35% nationwide by 2030. Electrification upgrades in industry, construction, and transportation will serve as core implementation areas. 1.3 A 17% reduction in CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP The Plan outlines a binding target of reducing CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 17%. Achieving this goal hinges fundamentally on a structural transformation of energy consumption. Peaking coal and oil consumption is a critical prerequisite. II. Policy Shift: From “Dual Control of Energy Consumption” to “Dual Control of Carbon Emissions” 2.1 A fundamental shift in control targets During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will comprehensively implement a dual-control system for both total carbon emissions and emission intensity—marking a new stage in energy development. The previous control framework, centered on total energy consumption and intensity, is transitioning toward one anchored on carbon emissions. This shift carries profound implications: ・It breaks down the simplistic dichotomy between energy security and environmental protection; ・It creates greater space for new energy development; ・It synergistically advances improvements in energy efficiency and green, low-carbon transformation. 2.2 Mandatory structural transformation of energy consumption Experts emphasize that around 70% of China’s incremental energy demand over the next five years must be met by non-fossil energy. This means the vast majority of newly added electricity demand will be satisfied by newly added clean-energy generation. Zheng Shajie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the overwhelming majority of newly added electricity demand will be met by newly added clean-energy generation. 2.3 The “establish first, then phase out” logic for fossil fuels The 15th Five-Year Plan does not entail simply eliminating fossil fuels, but rather follows a clear “establish first, then phase out” transition logic: ・Coal: Transitioning from a primary power source to a flexible, backup power source—enhancing its grid-balancing capability via the “three reform initiatives” (energy-saving retrofitting, flexibility retrofitting, and heat-supply retrofitting), and implementing low-carbon upgrades such as biomass co-firing, green ammonia co-firing, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS); ・Oil: Consumption will peak; annual crude oil production will stabilize at around 200 million tonnes, with continued improvement of the strategic reserve system; ・Natural gas: Serving as a bridging fuel, deepening pricing reforms, building underground gas storage facilities, and advancing pipeline projects including the China–Russia Far East Gas Pipeline and the second phase of the Sichuan Gas-to-East Pipeline.

China to Meet All New Power Demand With Clean Energy, CCTV Says

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China plans to meet all new power demand with clean energy by 2030, per CCTV citing the Academy of Macroeconomic Research. Renewable generation exceeded 3 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first nine months, accounting for over 40% of total output.

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China to Meet All New Power Demand With Clean Energy, CCTV Says

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