"Three Unchanged Principles" Set the Direction; "Four Deepenings" Highlight the Key Points! A Forward-Looking Interpretation of the '15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New-Type Power System'

For enterprises, balancing flexibility retrofitting with carbon emission control is key to unlocking the coal-fired power retrofitting market. Path Two: Integrated Sending-End Systems. Guided by the goal of building system-friendly new-energy power stations, priority will be placed on enhancing reliable peak-shaving generation capacity. This entails replacing independent wind and solar operations with deep integration of wind, solar, hydro, thermal, and storage (“wind-solar + hydro-thermal-storage”), while intensifying R&D and application of grid-forming energy storage technologies and algorithms. Internally, thermal power and energy storage will jointly smooth output fluctuations, and high-precision power output forecasting technology will be promoted to increase the credible output of new-energy power stations. For enterprises, stable energy supply solutions will become critical to accessing markets in new-energy bases and hydropower bases in Southwest China. Meanwhile, grid-forming energy storage is expected to see demand across all scenarios—distributed, centralized, and large-scale energy bases. Deepening Regulation Capacity Construction: Coordinated Efforts Across "Generation, Storage, and Load" The volatility of new-energy output continues to elevate system regulation requirements—not only for real-time smoothing of output curves but also for temporal shifting of power delivery. The Plan shifts regulation capacity construction toward large-scale implementation, primarily through two pathways: expanding flexible resources at generation and storage sites, and enhancing demand-side response capabilities. Path One: Building a Bidirectional Resource Pool of "Generation + Storage." The Plan sets targets for 2030: 300 GW of new-type energy storage capacity, 160 GW of pumped hydro storage capacity, and 50 GW of adjustable charging capacity. Pumped hydro development is accelerating and scaling up: whereas the Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for Pumped Hydro Storage (2021–2035) set a 2030 target of ~120 GW, the Plan raises this by ~40 GW. Adjustable charging capacity is expected to rely mainly on public charging infrastructure. According to the “15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption,” around 40 million charging facilities—including ~9 million public chargers—will be built by 2030, delivering ~500 GW of public charging capacity. Drawing from current virtual power plant (VPP) experience, the controllable capacity typically accounts for 10%–40% of aggregated capacity; thus, public chargers are projected to adequately meet adjustable charging needs, while private charging will be guided via time-of-use electricity pricing mechanisms. Path Two: Strengthening Demand-Side Response Capabilities and Accelerating VPP Development. The Plan requires demand-side response capability to reach over 5% of peak load; the Action Plan stipulates that by 2027, such capability must reach 5%–10% of peak electricity demand; and the Guidelines on Advancing Construction of a New-Type Power Load Management System set a 2030 target of 20% of peak load—up ~17 percentage points from 2025. Currently, VPP development shows trends toward smaller scale and diversified participants. In 2025, 220 new VPPs will be added, each capable of regulating ~31 MW—down from ~40 MW per VPP in 2024. Load operators and energy service providers account for 57% of participants; newly entering firms span power equipment, local platforms, energy groups, and engineering sectors. Market mechanisms for VPPs—including electricity energy markets, ancillary service markets, and demand-response markets—are being refined, yet revenues remain unstable. Operators must innovate business models—e.g., introducing payments from resource providers or commercial clients—to develop sustainable revenue streams beyond traditional power markets.

From "Passive Supporting Role" to "Core Asset": How Energy Storage Becomes the Cornerstone of Power System Stability

Document No. 136: The Starting Point of Energy Storage’s Value-Driven Era In February 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the "Notice on Deepening Market-Oriented Reform of Grid-Connection Tariffs for New Energy to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy" (hereinafter referred to as "Document No. 136"). Its provision—"configuring energy storage shall not be made a prerequisite for project approval, grid connection, or grid access of newly built new-energy projects"—marks the formal end of energy storage’s administrative-driven development logic and the beginning of its value-driven era. Previously, mandatory storage configuration spurred nearly 80 GW of nationwide installed capacity. Yet behind this growth lurked serious risks: First, low system value and asset idleness—actual utilization rates of storage systems were extremely low; storage existed merely as a “compliance appendage” to secure new-energy project approvals, with virtually no exploration into how storage could deliver genuine system-level value. Second, the “bad money drives out good” effect hindered technological advancement—because policy, rather than value, drove deployment, cost minimization gained disproportionate weight in corporate decision-making. This led early adopters to widely deploy inefficient, high-emission, low-cost technologies—contradicting China’s strategic energy goals embodied in the “Four Energy Revolutions.” Third, insufficient system support capability—underperforming storage systems failed to provide urgently needed inertia support and frequency regulation, failing to fill existing gaps and instead creating new system vulnerabilities. The issuance of Document No. 136 transfers decision-making authority for energy storage from “administrative approval” back to “market forces and system needs,” returning energy storage development to its commercial and technological fundamentals. Policy Closure and Certainty of Scalable Development Space Beginning with Document No. 136, the state rapidly established institutional support within one year to recognize energy storage as a “new-type market entity.” From the “Basic Rules for Ancillary Services,” to the “Notice on Building Spot Electricity Markets,” and then to the “Special Action Plan for Large-Scale Construction of New-Type Energy Storage (2025–2027)” (hereinafter the “Action Plan”), energy storage’s strategic positioning has officially evolved—from an “accessory to new-energy projects” to a “core asset underpinning stable operation of the new-type power system.” The Action Plan and the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New-Type Power System” establish highly certain, large-scale targets: over 180 GW of installed capacity by 2027, reaching 300 GW by 2030. By the end of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” cumulative direct investment is projected to reach ~¥850 billion, driving expansion across the entire upstream-downstream industrial chain. This high-growth trajectory rests fundamentally on two constraints: the bottom-line requirement for new-energy consumption and the regulation gap arising from the spatiotemporal mismatch inherent in pumped hydro storage. 02. Differentiated Value Realization Logic Across Three Application Scenarios In the post-Document No. 136 era, the Action Plan’s three designated application scenarios exhibit markedly distinct growth patterns. Overall, energy storage will advance across generation, transmission & distribution, and demand sides through two parallel value pathways: system stability value and green value. Generation Side: Structural Growth Shifting from “Universal Configuration” to “Precision Configuration” Document No. 136 has had the most direct impact on generation-side storage. During the mandatory-configuration era, the generation side contributed the largest share of new-type energy storage installations. However, after Document No. 136, growth in generation-side storage installations declined significantly. Although a rush-to-install surge occurred during the pre-implementation window period—prompting some new-energy developers to accelerate project approvals and grid connections ahead of the policy change, locking in revenue expectations under the old rules requiring storage configuration—the overall trend reflects a structural shift.

China Unveils '15th Five-Year' New Energy Storage Plan; 2030 Capacity Target Set at 300 Million kW

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China's NDRC and Energy Bureau released the '15th Five-Year' new energy storage plan, targeting 300 million kW capacity by 2030. Lithium-ion batteries currently dominate the sector, accounting for over 96% of installations.

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China Unveils '15th Five-Year' New Energy Storage Plan; 2030 Capacity Target Set at 300 Million kW

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