What is Citi's current Brent crude oil price forecast for the next three months, and what key risk does it highlight despite that forecast?

Citi maintains its zero-to-three-month Brent price forecast at $120 a barrel, while highlighting that 'oil markets are under-pricing duration and tail risks' — a core conclusion underscoring persistent vulnerability to prolonged geopolitical stress, especially from stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations, even as near-term supply cushions (e.g., SPR releases, Chinese import cuts) temporarily moderate price pressure.

According to Citi, how has China's oil import reduction in April and May 2025 affected global oil market stress, and what are the specific figures cited?

Citi states that China's potential cut of about 2.4 million barrels per day in oil imports during April and May — reducing intake to approximately 9.2 million bpd from a 2025 average of about 11.6 million bpd — 'has also reduced stress on the global oil market', a key factual observation directly tied to ship tracking data and explicitly cited as a mitigating factor against sharper price spikes.

Citi says oil could rise further if US-Iran talks remain thorny

May 8, 2026

Citi warns oil prices could rise further if U.S.-Iran talks stall, maintaining a near-term Brent forecast of $120 per barrel despite reduced Chinese imports. The bank expects prices to average $110 in Q2 before easing later in the year.

reuters

2026-05-08

Citi says oil could rise further if US-Iran talks remain thorny

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Citi says oil could rise further if US-Iran talks remain thorny

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