According to Citi, what is the key reason Brent oil prices may fall to $60/barrel by year-end?

Citi attributes the potential decline in Brent oil to $60/barrel by year-end primarily to the fading impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, as shipping flows normalize, Chinese buyers remain absent, physical crude markets weaken sharply, and inventories draw far less than expected—indicating that 'fundamentals are rapidly reasserting themselves'.

What does Citi predict about the durability of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) and its implications for oil markets?

Citi expects the US-Iran MOU to hold and evolve into a permanent deal over the coming months, stating that 'incentives to de-escalate outweigh the alternative for the US, Iran, and much of the ME region', which supports the normalization of Hormuz traffic and reinforces bearish oil price outlooks.

Citi Says Oil May Slump to $60 as Hormuz Shock Fades Away

Jul 2, 2026

Citigroup predicts Brent crude could drop to $60 by year-end as Hormuz disruptions fade and shipping normalizes. Major banks cite oversupply risks and weakening physical markets amid recovering trade flows.

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Citi Says Oil May Slump to $60 as Hormuz Shock Fades Away

Citi Says Oil May Slump to $60 as Hormuz Shock Fades Away

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